A Black Swan in the Money Market

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
John B Taylor ◽  
John C Williams

The recent financial crisis saw a dramatic and persistent jump in interest rate spreads between overnight federal funds and longer-term interbank loans. The Fed took several actions to reduce these spreads including the creation of the Term Auction Facility (TAF). The effectiveness of these policies depends on the cause of the increased spreads such as counterparty risk, liquidity, or other factors. Using a no-arbitrage pricing framework and various measures of risk, we find robust evidence that increased counterparty risk contributed to the rise in spreads but do not find robust evidence that the TAF had a significant effect on spreads.

Author(s):  
Dr. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis

Monetary policy is an important public policy, but it is not the only one to stabilize our economy and reduce its business cycles. The leading central bank, the Federal Reserve of the U.S., has introduced, after the 2008 global financial crisis, new instruments and unusual facilities to implement its new innovative monetary policy. The financial world and mostly the social scientists watch as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides on a target interest rate in the federal funds market for the next period. The framework that the FOMC uses to implement monetary policy has changed over the last twelve years and continues to evolve today. Here, we try to evaluate the new instruments and their “effectiveness”. Before the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers used one set of traditional instruments (tools) to achieve the target rate. However, several policy interventions, introduced soon after the crisis, drastically altered the landscape of the federal funds market and the traditional economic theory. This new and uncertain environment, with enormous reserves and even interest on reserves, necessitated a new set of instruments by the Fed for its monetary policy implementation. Lately, after seven years of zero interest rate, the FOMC began in December 2015 to increase the target rate and then, went back again to a lower one, but many questions arise. How did they evaluate the effectiveness of these new instruments? Is the current federal funds rate the appropriate one for our economic wellbeing? How efficient was so far this ZIR monetary policy after the latest global financial crisis? Why the Fed put all these burdens of its ‘innovated” new monetary policy to the poor taxpayers (bail out) and to the risk-averse depositors (bail in)? Is it possible for the Fed’s policy to prevent the future financial crises? The federal funds rate was very low and affected negatively the financial markets (bubbles were growing), the real rates of interest (it is negative for twelve years), and the deposit rates (they are closed to zero for twelve years). The redistribution of wealth of depositors and taxpayers continues, which means the true economic welfare is falling and a new global recession was in preparation, if the current unfair easy money policy will persist, ignoring the necessity of a prevention of financial crises. Then, it came as an unexpected plague the coronavirus pandemic, following with a new but, the worse in economic history global crisis (chaos).


2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (31) ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
Miguel de Lascurain M. ◽  

The financial crisis has brought the problems of regulatory failure and unbridled counterparty risk to the forefront in financial discussions. In the last decade, central counterparties have been created in order to face those insidious problems. In Mexico, both the stock and the derivatives markets have central counterparties, but the money market has not. This paper addresses the issue of creating a central counterparty for the Mexican money market. Recommendations that must be followed in the design and the management of risk of a central counterparty, given by international regulatory institutions, are presented in this study. Also, two different conceptual designs for a central counterparty, appropriate for the Mexican market, are proposed. Final conclusions support the creation of a new central counterparty for the Mexican money market.


Author(s):  
Nelson Oliver ◽  
Mehmet Pasaogullari

Monetary policy has been conducted with a different set of tools since the financial crisis, and we investigate whether the change has affected the accuracy of professionals’ interest-rate forecasts. We analyze the accuracy of federal funds rate and nominal Treasury yield forecasts in the periods before and after the introduction of new policy tools and find that, in general, forecast accuracy improved in the latter policy period.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 472-498
Author(s):  
Mari L. Robertson

Purpose The transmission of monetary policy rates to lending rates is viewed as a crucial path of monetary policy. As an integral part of the financial system and the recent financial crisis, securitized assets have the potential to affect the interest rate pass-through process and monetary policy effectiveness. This paper aims to investigate the influence of securitization on the transmission of policy rate changes to lending rates and how rate transmission has changed since the recent financial crisis. Emphasis is placed on differences among the mortgage, consumer credit and business loan securitization markets and between agency and private-label securitization transactions. Design/methodology/approach The empirical framework is an error-correction model augmented to directly measure the influence of securitization. Monetary policy effectiveness is measured by the size and speed of transmitted policy rate changes to lending rates. An efficiency measure of relative adjustment accounts for differences in the size of long-run responses across loan markets and changes in efficiency from securitization within loan markets. Findings The size and speed of interest rate pass-through tend to increase with securitization. Liquidity, capital relief and funding from securitization help to make lending rates more responsive. Increases in pass-through with securitization are less in the consumer credit and business loan markets after the recent financial crisis relative to before the crisis. In contrast, mortgage markets tend to have larger pass-through after the financial crisis. Differences in rate transmission after the recent financial crisis point to the role on nonbanks in consumer credit and business loans and asset purchase programs of the Federal Reserve in mortgage markets. Securitization tends to make the adjustment process more efficient, and gains in efficiency from securitization are larger after the financial crisis. Originality/value A key contribution of the study differentiates securitization across markets and types to determine the effects on the interest rate pass-through process. The results show that increases in the efficiency of the adjustment process from securitization tend to be greater in mortgage markets and for all private-label securitized assets. These findings have implications for proposed government-sponsored entity (GSE) reform to reduce the role of GSEs in the housing market, promote private-label mortgage credit and strengthen securitization deals.


2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Elona Shehu ◽  
Elona Meka

The quality of the loan portfolio in Albanian banking system is facing many obstacles during the last decade. In this paper we look at possible determinants of assets quality. During the recent financial crisis commercial banks were confronted with deteriorating asset quality that threatened not only the banking industry, but also the stability of the entire financial system. This study aims to examine the correlation between non-performing loans and the macroeconomic determinants in Albania during the last decade. NPLs are considered to be of a high importance as they represent the high risk exposure of banking system. A solid bank with healthy assets increases the market efficiency. Our approach is based on a panel data regression analysis technique from 2005-2015. Within this methodology this study finds robust evidence on the existing relationship between lending interest rate, real GDP growth and NPLs. We expect to find a negative relationship between lending interest rate and asset quality. Further we assume an inverse relationship between GDP growth and non-performing loans, suggesting that NPLs decrease if the economy is growing. Furthermore this study proposes a solution platform, which looks deeper into the possibility of creating a secondary active market for troubled loans, restructuring the banking system or implementing the Podgorica model. This research paper opens a new lieu of discussion in terms of academic debates and decision-making policies.


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