For seismic safety evaluation of piping system with local thinning surface by liquid droplet impingement erosion (LDI), hybrid seismic tests were conducted to the piping with a locally-thinned elbow. In this paper, a method for predicting the thinning shape by LDI on the elbow is developed. To determine the thinning shape by LDI, droplet behavior at the elbow is calculated for various flow conditions and geometries. With the calculation of the collision point and velocity for each droplet, collision frequency and average collision velocity on the elbow are estimated. Then, the thinning shape on the elbow is determined with the relationship between the flow conditions and thinning rate. Finally, the evaluated thinning shape is compared with an actual LDI case for the validation of the method.