Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility : GARCH Model = قياس أثر تغيرات أسعار الصرف على تقلبات عوائد أسواق الأسهم باستخدام نموذج GARCH

Abstract The paper investigates the effect of exchange and inflation rate on stock market returns in India. The study uses monthly, quarterly and annual inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the RBI and market returns computed from the Indian share market index from January, 2000 to June, 2020.The paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model for investigating the effect on Indian Stock markets. The GARCH and its corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to explore the long- and short-run relationship between the India Stock market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The paper shows that there exists a long term relationship but there is no short-run relationship between Indian market returns and inflation. But, there is periodicity of inflation monthly considerable long run and short-run relationship between them existed. The outcome also illustrates a significant short-run relationship between NSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for short run and it was significantly shown the positive effects on the stock market returns and making it a desirable attribute of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

Download Full-text

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatilities: evidence from selected emerging economies

Studies in Economics and Finance ◽

10.1108/sef-09-2020-0389 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Bijoy Rakshit ◽

Yadawananda Neog

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Stock Market ◽

Emerging Economies ◽

Market Performance ◽

Exchange Rate Volatility ◽

Oil Price ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Content Type ◽

Stock Market Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate volatility, oil price return and COVID-19 cases on the stock market returns and volatility for selected emerging market economies. Additionally, this study compares the market performance in the emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-COVID and global financial crisis (GFC) period. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the arbitrage pricing theory to model the risk-return relationship between the risk-based factors (exchange rate volatility and COVID-19 cases) and stock market returns. By applying the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, the study captures the asymmetric volatility spillover from the stock markets to foreign exchange markets and vice versa. Findings Findings reveal that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative and significant effect on the market returns in Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (S&P CLX IPSA), India (SENSEX), Mexico (S&P BMV IPC) and Russia (MOEX) during the coronavirus pandemic. Regarding the effect of oil price returns, the authors find a positive relationship between oil price and stock market returns across all the economies in the study. The market returns of Russia, India, Brazil and Peru appeared more volatile during the pandemic than the GFC period. Practical implications As the exchange rate volatility is causing higher risk and uncertainty in the stock market’s performance, the central bank’s effort to maintain a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate sale can be proven crucial for the economies under consideration. Emphasized should also be given to boost investors’ confidence in the stock market, and for this, the government policy actions in reducing the transmission of the disease are the need of the hour. Originality/value While a large volume of literature on stock market performance in times of COVID-19 has emerged from developed economies, this study adds to the literature by exploring the emerging economies’ stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike previous literature, this study examines the volatility spillover between stock and exchange rate markets in the worst affected emerging economies during the crisis.

Download Full-text

GARCH Model, Heavy Tails and the Chinese Stock Market Returns

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3018940 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Day ◽

Mark Diamond

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Heavy Tails ◽

Garch Model ◽

Chinese Stock Market ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns

Download Full-text

Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Returns of South Asian Region

Canadian Journal of Business and Information Studies ◽

10.34104/cjbis.020.24034 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 24-34 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Stock Market ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Foreign Currency ◽

Currency Reserve ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Gdp Growth Rate

This paper is intended to find out whether macroeconomic variables may impact on the stock market as well as whether such impact has any country specific pattern. The stock market return was taken as the dependent variable and real interest rate, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, foreign currency reserve growth rate, fiscal deficit, FDI to GDP ratio, exchange rate were taken as independent variables. Data-set was covered from 1993 to 2019 for five South Asian countries which were Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. The pattern of the stock market, as well as macro conditions of these countries, was observed and it was found that some relationships exist between the stock market returns and these chosen independent variables. Unit root test, Heteroscedasticty test, autocorrelation test, Hausman test is conducted to authenticate and clarified data to investigate relationship nature. Granger Casualty test indicated that there exist cause and effect relationship between GDP growth rate, exchange rate, and stock market returns. Finally, the regression test reveals that the inflation rate and foreign currency reserve growth rate have a significant impact on the stock market returns. It was expected to have the unique nature of different countries having versatile impact on dependent, so additionally fixed effects model and random effects model were run and it was found that the random effects model is statistically appropriate through conducting the Hausman test. The test reveals that GDP growth rate, foreign currency reserve growth rate, and fiscal deficit positively impact the stock market returns and these also support the literature review. Interest rates, inflation rate, FDI to GDP ratio, and exchange rate have negatively impacted the stock market return where only interest rate, inflation rate & exchange rate.

Download Full-text

Stock market returns and exchange rate movements in a multiple currency economy: the case of Zimbabwe

Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences ◽

10.4102/jef.v8i3.119 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Mabutho Sibanda

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Stock Market ◽

Foreign Currency ◽

The United States ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Vector Autoregressive ◽

United States Dollar ◽

International Portfolio Diversification ◽

Exchange Rate Movements ◽

New Evidence

This study seeks to provide new evidence on the stock market and exchange rate relationship in Zimbabwe, a country that does not have its own sovereign currency. The bivariate vector autoregressive approach is used to establish the relationship between the stock market and exchange rates. The results show that no relationship exists between the stock market and the proxy exchange rate. The findings contradict the expectation that exchange rate movements would influence domestic stock market prices. This finding is especially interesting given the fact that Zimbabwe uses a basket of currencies for transacting purposes, albeit with the United States dollar as a major currency for reporting and stock market pricing purposes. The findings provide new evidence of a disconnect between the stock market and exchange rate movements. This has implications for international portfolio diversification and the use of foreign currency as an asset class in an economy using a multiple currency system.

Download Full-text