scholarly journals Quasi-Stochastic Electricity Markets

Author(s):  
Jacob Mays

Summary of Contribution This article was inspired by price formation changes recently proposed and implemented in several U.S. wholesale electricity markets. The analysis draws from and contributes to three lines of literature. First, the paper specifies two mechanisms that lead to inefficient and inconsistent prices in real-world markets. Second, the article illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in evaluating policies for pricing in nonconvex markets and observes that convex hull pricing, sometimes described as an ?ideal? due to its uplift-minimizing property in deterministic analyses, can perform poorly in settings with uncertainty. Lastly, the paper strengthens the theoretical basis for operating reserve demand curves by connecting their parameterization to outcomes expected in efficient stochastic markets.

2022 ◽  
Vol 306 ◽  
pp. 117908
Author(s):  
Muhammad Bashar Anwar ◽  
Gord Stephen ◽  
Sourabh Dalvi ◽  
Bethany Frew ◽  
Sean Ericson ◽  
...  

Peter Christoffersen passed away on June 22, 2018 at an early age. He was one of the most prolific and gifted researchers in the area of derivatives, combining a very strong theoretical background with an appreciation for the practical details of real world markets. He will be sorely missed. This memorial article provides a few general comments about his work and offers reminiscences about Peter as a researcher, a teacher, and a mentor from three of his coauthors and former students.


In standard statistical methodologies, the probability that the extreme event will occur is very small. But the expected losses in real world markets are higher and sometimes with catastrophic outcomes. Here it seems that the fact that we could lose a certain amount of money 95% or 99% of the time tells us absolutely nothing about what could happen the other 5 or even 1 percent of the time. For that reason, instead of estimating the certain loss, as the standard statistical methodologies account, we introduce a technique known as a “tail risk protecting strategy” or “the barbell investment strategy.” In this chapter, analyzing the copper market movements I understand that the market has been conditioned to believe that the copper demand will exceed its supply. Therefore, I suggest to protect against a growing price-inflation risk. The analyses are conducted using the statistical software STATA 11 and Excel Spreadsheets.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 16-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Réal A. Carbonneau ◽  
Rustam Vahidov ◽  
Gregory E. Kersten

Quantitative analysis of negotiation concession behavior is performed based on empirical data with the purpose of providing simple and intuitive decision support in electronic negotiations. Previous work on non-linear concave preferences and subsequent concession crossover provides a theoretical basis for the model. The authors propose a model which quantifies the remaining concession potential for each issue and a generalization of the model which permits the memory/decay of past concessions. These models permit the analysis of negotiators' concession behavior. Using the proposed models, it was possible to quantitatively determine that negotiators in the authors' negotiation case exhibit concession crossover issues and thus have a tendency to give concessions on issues with the most remaining concession potential. This finding provides empirical evidence of concession crossover in actual concessions and the corresponding model permits the design of a simple and intuitive prediction methodology, which could be used in real world negotiations by decision support systems or automated negotiation agents.


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