Safer Ship Operation : Risk Assessment of Marine Traffic

2003 ◽  
Vol 106 (1012) ◽  
pp. 168-169
Author(s):  
Kinzo INOUE
Author(s):  
Adi Maimun ◽  
Istaz F. Nursyirman ◽  
Ang Yit Sian ◽  
Rahimuddin Samad ◽  
Sulaiman Oladokun

The Strait of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. It averages 150 ship passes a day and more than 50,000 ships annually. With a high concentration of vessels in a narrow path, multiple risk situations arise. Analyzing traffic density is made harder by cross traffic and an unknown traffic density at the Strait. In 2009, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), through a collaboration with Kobe University, successfully installed an Automatic Identification System (AIS) receiver. Through the AIS receiver, data of ship movements in the Strait of Malacca and Singapore could be recorded. A program was established by UTM to retrieve the data for the purpose of marine traffic collision risk analysis. In this research, a risk assessment method using AIS data is proposed for restricted waters such as for the Strait of Malacca and Singapore. The Risk Assessment Methodology requires the estimation of collision probabilities. The collision probability of the proposed method considers the Traffic Density, directions of traffic flow (with respect to a subject vessel), and probability of navigational failure. An area in the Strait of Singapore between the latitudes of 1°13’N and 1°07’N and Longitudes of 103°4’E and 103°56’E was selected to illustrate the method. By analysing the AIS data of traffic flow, the probabilities of collision for the area were determined. The effect of vessel parameters of length and speed on the risks of collision are also shown.


2012 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shenping Hu ◽  
Jinpeng Zhang

Author(s):  
SHENPING HU ◽  
XUDONG LI ◽  
QUANGEN FANG ◽  
ZAILI YANG

Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes' point estimation and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.


Author(s):  
Ning Tong ◽  
Xiangning Lin ◽  
Zhengtian Li ◽  
Rui Zhang ◽  
Dexian Yang

2013 ◽  
Vol 655-657 ◽  
pp. 2335-2339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bi Hong Lu ◽  
Peng Hua ◽  
Zhen Liang Fu ◽  
Feng Gao

Based on the FMEA and risk assessment analysis method, authors proposed 25 kinds of failure modes about the door system of high-speed train, conducted a risk assessment from the risk grade and criticality. Four kinds of failure modes are obtained with the highest level of risk and criticality in the door system of high-speed train. They are control failure, communication failure, compensator failure and poor function. Four key components, affecting the door system safety of high-speed train, are identified in terms of door control unit, driving device, locking mechanism and platform compensator. Research outcomes can be used in analyzing the failure causes and specific solutions to reduce and avoid the high-speed train operation risk.


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