Abstract
Background: High burden of chronic cardio-metabolic disease (CCD) including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been reported in the Middle East and North Africa region. We aimed to externally validate a Europoid risk assessment tool designed by Alssema et al, including non-laboratory measures, for the prediction of the CCD in the Iranian population. Methods: The predictors included age, body mass index, waist circumference, use of antihypertensive, current smoking, and family history of cardiovascular disease and or diabetes. For external validation of the model in the Tehran lipids and glucose study (TLGS), the Area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test were performed for discrimination and calibration, respectively. Results: Among 1310 men and 1960 women aged 28-85 years, 29.5% and 47.4% experienced CCD during the 6 and 9-year follow-up, respectively. The model showed acceptable discrimination, with an AUC of 0.72(95% CI: 0.69-0.75) for men and 0.73(95% CI: 0.71-0.76) for women. The calibration of the model was good for both genders (min HL P=0.5). Considering separate outcomes, AUC was highest for CKD (0.76(95% CI: 0.72-0.79)) and lowest for T2DM (0.65(95% CI: 0.61-0.69)), in men. As for women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.82(95% CI: 0.78-0.86)) and lowest for T2DM (0.69(95% CI: 0.66-0.73)). The 9-year follow-up demonstrated almost similar performances compared to the 6-year follow-up. Conclusion: This model showed acceptable discrimination and good calibration for risk prediction of CCD in short and long-term follow-up in the Iranian population.
Development and Validation of a County-Level Social Determinants of Health Risk Assessment Tool for Cardiovascular Disease
