The Strength of Ethnicity in Voting Behaviour in Nigeria’s 2015 ‎Presidential Elections: The Case of Ibadan, Oyo State

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of rurality on party system fragmentation in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic. The findings show that party system fragmentation (PSF) has been characteristically low in the Nigerian presidential elections and rurality does not significantly predict party system fragmentation. Rurality has a negative effect on PSF in all the elections studied except the 2003 election but only significant in the 2011 poll. Thus, the paper cast doubt on previous studies that indicate that striking rural-urban differences manifest in party system fragmentation in African elections and attribute it to previous studies’ measure of rurality. The paper argues that the use of a composite measure of rurality instead of singular measures of rurality might provide better analysis that helps us understand the effect of rurality on party systems. Also, it argues that in the study of the rural-urban difference in voting behaviour or political behaviours more broadly, data should be aggregated based on cities and non-city areas because cities have distinctive urban characters compared with non-city places. Analyses done on states or constituencies level may not reveal the rural-urban difference because states and constituencies usually have a mix of rural and urban population and other characteristics.

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Religion and Voter Choice Homogeneity in the Nigerian Presidential Elections of the Fourth Republic

Statistics Politics and Policy ◽

10.1515/spp-2018-0010 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 1-25 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Cletus Famous Nwankwo

Keyword(s):

Presidential Elections ◽

Party Identification ◽

Vote Choice ◽

Voting Behaviour ◽

Fourth Republic ◽

Voter Choice ◽

Specific Manifestation ◽

The Impact ◽

Over Time

Abstract This article examines the influence of religion on voter choice homogeneity (VCH) in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic (1999–2015). The result indicates that in the first two elections, religion did not have a significant impact on VCH but had increasing influence from 2011. Thus, compared with the 1999 and 2003 elections, the effect of faith in 2011 and 2015 elections was positive, but the impact of religion was highest in 2015, having a significant and robust effect on VCH. Thus, the paper demonstrates that impact of faith in the presidential elections in the fourth republic has strengthened over time. This finding is, however, put in the context of each election regarding the role of candidates’ popularity, party-identification, ethnicity, candidates’ performance, the number of candidates contesting the election and the position of prominent leaders of the different regions of the country. The paper demonstrates that placing the influence of religion on vote choice in the context of each election and place-specific manifestation of VCH is pertinent in understanding better how religion shapes voting behaviour in Nigeria.

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Behind the Polling–Booth Curtain and beyond Simple Speculations: Toward a Causal Model of Far–Right Voting Behaviour Some Evidence from French Presidential Elections of 2002

Canadian Journal of Political Science ◽

10.1017/s0008423904040193 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 37 (2) ◽

pp. 419-429 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Philippe Bonnetain

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Elections ◽

Causal Model ◽

Prime Minister ◽

Voting Behaviour ◽

Far Right ◽

National Front ◽

French Presidential Elections ◽

First Time

The electoral surge of the National Front (NF) in the 2002 French presidential election was unprecedented. It marked the first time that a far–right candidate reached the second round of voting in a presidential election: Jean–Marie Le Pen, leader of the NF party, passed the first round on April 21, 2002, beating 16 other candidates with 16.86 per cent of the vote against 19.88 per cent for the incumbent President Jacques Chirac (Rassemblement pour la République RPR) and 16.18 per cent for the incumbent Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (Parti Socialiste PS).

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