Polarization and tipping points

Research has documented increasing partisan division and extremist positions that are more pronounced among political elites than among voters. Attention has now begun to focus on how polarization might be attenuated. We use a general model of opinion change to see if the self-reinforcing dynamics of influence and homophily may be characterized by tipping points that make reversibility problematic. The model applies to a legislative body or other small, densely connected organization, but does not assume country-specific institutional arrangements that would obscure the identification of fundamental regularities in the phase transitions. Agents in the model have initially random locations in a multidimensional issue space consisting of membership in one of two equal-sized parties and positions on 10 issues. Agents then update their issue positions by moving closer to nearby neighbors and farther from those with whom they disagree, depending on the agents’ tolerance of disagreement and strength of party identification compared to their ideological commitment to the issues. We conducted computational experiments in which we manipulated agents’ tolerance for disagreement and strength of party identification. Importantly, we also introduced exogenous shocks corresponding to events that create a shared interest against a common threat (e.g., a global pandemic). Phase diagrams of political polarization reveal difficult-to-predict transitions that can be irreversible due to asymmetric hysteresis trajectories. We conclude that future empirical research needs to pay much closer attention to the identification of tipping points and the effectiveness of possible countermeasures.

Italy in times of protest and negative voting: An introduction

The classic heuristics of voting behaviour have been eroded overtime especially in well-established democracies. Ideology, party identification, and social class have been gradually replaced by short-period factors. In particular, the personalization has represented an innovative variable that significantly contributes to explain voting behaviour. Cross-pressures between party identification, candidate assessments and issue preferences paved the way to the diffusion of protest voting, both against the élite and the system. In this respect, Italy represents a very interesting case from both a theoretical and an empirical point view considering the presence of protest parties and the important diffusion of anti-system movements which surfed the protest to consolidate their positions. The editors conceived this special issue aiming at analysing and measuring the impact of protest/negative voting in Italy between 2016 and 2020, a period in which protest parties and voters’ discontent have significantly increased. Data presented by the different papers confirm, albeit under different perspectives, the relevance of this peculiar form of political behaviour.

HUBUNGAN ANTARA IKATAN PRIMORDIAL, IDENTIFIKASI KEPARTAIAN PEMILIH DAN PEMAHAMAN PROGRAM CALON LEGISLATIF DENGAN PILIHAN POLITIK ETNIS TIONGHOA DI DAPIL DKI JAKARTA III DALAM PEMILU LEGISLATIF DPR RI 2

Participation of the Chinese community in Indonesian politics has been significant every year. In fact, not only as voters, currently there are Chinese legislative candidates who have successfully passed to the DPR. Therefore, this research was conducted to determine the primordial attachment, party identification, and comprehension of the legislative candidates’ program on the political choices of the Chinese community. This research was conducted using quantitative methods. Data were collected from 250 respondents through a questionnaire with google form which was distributed through social media. The questionnaire contains information needed for research including the choice of the respondent’s party and respondent’s response to statements regarding primordial attachment, party identification, and comprehension of legislative candidates’ program. The results showed that of the three variables, only the comprehension of the legislative candidate’s program had a relationship with Chinese community political choices. These results are in accordance with the theory of voting behavior with a rational approach by Anthony Downs, which assumes that voters in determine their choices will act rationally by considering the pros and cons of choosing a legislative candidate. In other words, the Chinese community who became the respondents in this research were rational because they could calculate the advantages and disadvantages of choosing a candidate by considering the programs offered by the legislative candidate.

HUBUNGAN ANTARA IKATAN PRIMORDIAL, IDENTIFIKASI KEPARTAIAN PEMILIH DAN PEMAHAMAN PROGRAM CALON LEGISLATIF DENGAN PILIHAN POLITIK ETNIS TIONGHOA DI DAPIL DKI JAKARTA III DALAM PEMILU LEGISLATIF DPR RI 2

Participation of the Chinese community in Indonesian politics has been significant every year. In fact, not only as voters, currently there are Chinese legislative candidates who have successfully passed to the DPR. Therefore, this research was conducted to determine the primordial attachment, party identification, and comprehension of the legislative candidates’ program on the political choices of the Chinese community. This research was conducted using quantitative methods. Data were collected from 250 respondents through a questionnaire with google form which was distributed through social media. The questionnaire contains information needed for research including the choice of the respondent’s party and respondent’s response to statements regarding primordial attachment, party identification, and comprehension of legislative candidates’ program. The results showed that of the three variables, only the comprehension of the legislative candidate’s program had a relationship with Chinese community political choices. These results are in accordance with the theory of voting behavior with a rational approach by Anthony Downs, which assumes that voters in determine their choices will act rationally by considering the pros and cons of choosing a legislative candidate. In other words, the Chinese community who became the respondents in this research were rational because they could calculate the advantages and disadvantages of choosing a candidate by considering the programs offered by the legislative candidate.

What are the Determinants of Public Support for Climate Policies? A Review of the Empirical Literature

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems of our times. To be effective, climate policies need to receive citizens’ approval. The objective of this article is to examine both the extent of individuals’ support for different climate policies and key determinants of policy support. To this end, an overview of the related empirical literature is provided. The article shows that the empirical literature on public climate policy support is very diverse in terms of concepts, measures of policy support and empirical approaches. Moreover, the bulk of the existing empirical literature has a strong U.S. focus. The article concludes that public support for climate policies is rather a matter of climate change beliefs and party identification, and not primarily a question of socio-demographic background. The article also offers suggestions for future research as well as policy recommendations.

Hierarchy-Enhancing Misinformation: Social Dominance Motives Are Uniquely Associated With Republicans’ Belief In and Sharing of Election-Related Misinformation

The aftermath of the 2020 US Presidential election saw a deluge of election-related misinformation which falsely asserted that the election was “stolen” from Donald Trump. Since then a majority of Republicans have consistently expressed belief in this misinformation, despite no evidence for its veracity and its motivating role in the January 6th, 2021 attack on the US Capitol. Here we present evidence, using a repeated-measures design (N = 355) across a highly generalizable stimulus set, that Republicans’ support for 2020 US election-related misinformation and willingness to share it on social media are uniquely associated with social dominance motives, along with conspiracy mentality and party identification strength. We find little evidence that right-wing authoritarianism is associated with the belief in or sharing of election-related misinformation, and that cognitive reflectiveness is only associated with sharing, but not belief. We introduce the theoretical lens of Hierarchy-Enhancing Misinformation to interpret these findings, arguing that election-related misinformation is best understood as a functional mechanism by which group-based dominance hierarchies are socially and psychologically reinforced.

A New Electorate? Explaining the Party Preferences of Immigrant-Origin Voters at the 2017 Bundestag Election

Immigrants now constitute a sizeable and rapidly growing group among many Western countries' electorates, but analyses of their party preferences remain limited. Theoretically, immigrants' party preferences might be explained with both standard electoral theories and immigrant-specific approaches. In this article, we rigorously test both perspectives against each other using the most recent data from Germany. Applying the Michigan model, with its three central explanatory variables – party identification, issue orientations and candidate evaluations – to the party preferences of immigrant-origin and native voters, we find that this standard model can explain both groups well. In contrast, we find no direct effects of the most prominent immigrant-specific variables, and neither do these meaningfully moderate the Michigan variables. However, we find strong formative effects on the presence of political attitudes and beliefs: immigrants with a longer time spent in Germany, a stronger German identity and less experience of discrimination report significantly fewer item non-responses for the Michigan model's main explanatory variables.