The Covid pandemic enters the ballot box: The impact of conspiracy theories on Italians' voting behaviour during the COVID-19 crisis

The spread of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020 was the impetus for an exogenous shock. In addition to the disruption brought on by the spread of COVID-19, conspiracy theories flourished on many aspects of the disease. However, the association between belief in conspiracy theories and voting behaviour has not been studied sufficiently, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the association between a belief in conspiracy theories and an intention to vote for populist parties (PPs). This association is analysed in a case study of Italian voters, where PPs can be found in the government and in the opposition. By conducting a cross-sectional analysis during the third wave of panel data fielded in December 2020, this article shows that individuals who have anti-vax attitudes and who also have a higher propensity to believe in conspiracy theories are more likely to vote for PPs, although it is worth considering the roles PPs play in either the government or in the opposition.

Corruption in the "First Order": Predicting the influence of scandal on voting behaviour and media perceptions during a General Election

<p><b>This thesis investigates responses in voting behaviour and media perceptions to the presence of media scandals about politicians and associated political parties during the 2017 New Zealand general election. A repeated measures design was used wherein 351 participants were recruited before the start of the election campaign, primarily from an Introductory Psychology course at Victoria University of Wellington. Follow-up surveys were conducted at three time points throughout the two month campaign. Participants were randomly allocated into one of two conditions for each follow-up survey. Half the participants were given a real news article to read about a media scandal, the other half read an article about a policy platform by the same political party. At the end of the election campaign, participants were asked about their voting behaviours. A second study was conducted after Labour Party leader, Jacinda Ardern, was announced Prime Minister with participants recruited via social media sites ‘Twitter’ and ‘Facebook’. In this study, 153 participants recalled information about scandals that were present in the media during the election campaign.</b></p> <p>Results showed that political scandals in news media do have an influence on voter perceptions, but not in an easily predictable way. Prior perceptions of political parties were the best predictors of who participants intended to vote for. Participants responded most strongly to public policy articles rather than scandal information, particularly those more knowledgeable of New Zealand’s political system, and therefore likely more engaged with politics in general. Further, there was evidence that information presented in the media influenced how participants viewed political parties that were not involved in the scandal, which is an important under a proportional voting system like MMP which requires understanding of the relationships between parties.</p> <p>Evidence was also found for a backlash effect towards the media wherein participants who were exposed to scandal information would displayed a decrease in trust towards the general media, consistent with the idea that one reason why voters may not respond negatively to scandal information reflects the decision that the source of the information is not credible. Future research should consider more targeted analysis on the different sources of news media, especially new media like blogs, social media, and entertainment news.</p>

Corruption in the "First Order": Predicting the influence of scandal on voting behaviour and media perceptions during a General Election

<p><b>This thesis investigates responses in voting behaviour and media perceptions to the presence of media scandals about politicians and associated political parties during the 2017 New Zealand general election. A repeated measures design was used wherein 351 participants were recruited before the start of the election campaign, primarily from an Introductory Psychology course at Victoria University of Wellington. Follow-up surveys were conducted at three time points throughout the two month campaign. Participants were randomly allocated into one of two conditions for each follow-up survey. Half the participants were given a real news article to read about a media scandal, the other half read an article about a policy platform by the same political party. At the end of the election campaign, participants were asked about their voting behaviours. A second study was conducted after Labour Party leader, Jacinda Ardern, was announced Prime Minister with participants recruited via social media sites ‘Twitter’ and ‘Facebook’. In this study, 153 participants recalled information about scandals that were present in the media during the election campaign.</b></p> <p>Results showed that political scandals in news media do have an influence on voter perceptions, but not in an easily predictable way. Prior perceptions of political parties were the best predictors of who participants intended to vote for. Participants responded most strongly to public policy articles rather than scandal information, particularly those more knowledgeable of New Zealand’s political system, and therefore likely more engaged with politics in general. Further, there was evidence that information presented in the media influenced how participants viewed political parties that were not involved in the scandal, which is an important under a proportional voting system like MMP which requires understanding of the relationships between parties.</p> <p>Evidence was also found for a backlash effect towards the media wherein participants who were exposed to scandal information would displayed a decrease in trust towards the general media, consistent with the idea that one reason why voters may not respond negatively to scandal information reflects the decision that the source of the information is not credible. Future research should consider more targeted analysis on the different sources of news media, especially new media like blogs, social media, and entertainment news.</p>

Ethnicity and governing party support in Africa: A longitudinal multilevel analysis

Historically, ethnicity has been considered to play a fundamental role in voting behaviour in Africa. However, researchers on the issue have found contradictory conclusions. The most recent research concludes that the African voter is more rational than expected. Overall ethnicity seems to be less influential than theory used to suggest. Against this background, this paper analyses vote for governing party in Africa and presents evidence that the method and data set used will have an important influence upon the final result. The research takes form of a quantitative analysis making extensive use of survey data from 2005 to 2019. Results indicate that ethnicity, although not exclusively, is still an explanatory factor. At a glance, African vote is rationally ethnic.

Is the Anti-Incumbency Sentiment Changing in Tamil Nadu? A Case Study of 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections

Elections are the most important pillar of democracy. A voter's behaviour is influenced by many parameters that can turn the outcome of the election. Many constituencies follow a certain voting pattern. The voters of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, have often been categorized as having an anti-incumbency sentiment, where the ruling party has often switched in every consecutive election. However, there seems to be a gradual shift in this sentiment. This paper presents a case on the relaxation of the anti-incumbency sentiment by analyzing the voting data across the constituencies in the five elections of the last two decades. Some aspects which could have contributed to this voting behaviour are also discussed.

6. The Media and Agenda-Setting

This chapter addresses media in politics, including newspapers, television, the internet, and social media. It seeks to answer the question of how influential the media is over politics, in areas such as voting behaviour. This discussion gives a broad overview of politics and the media, about the agenda of politics and its framing, and what shapes it. The chapter then covers the classic question of the influence of the media in British politics. It also considers the importance of social media, and how it is now part of all media today, especially in relation to elections and referendums. Finally, the chapter looks at media and social media campaigning in elections. It introduces the concept of chaotic pluralism as a way of characterizing today's social media-dominated and fluid political environment.

The Unstable Voting Behaviour: Tracing of the Voting Behaviour in Indonesia Post-Reformasi Era

Article aimed to analyses about construction of voting behavior in Indonesia election implementation. It urge and significant to elaborate and scrutinize political preferential which became base foundation to elect and submit their vote. There are two prominent factor can be main tools to covering voting behavior trend In Indonesia. Firstly, figures presumably primary sources to mention constructing public voting behavior. In Indonesia post authoritarian era, democracy has been suspended due to emergence of strong figure. This become ironic in implementation of democracy when hijacked oligarchic power that still persist and insist their resources in recent era. Secondly, analyzing of voting behavior in Indonesia has been swiftly in every election. It’s important to note that main character of voting behavior is swing voters dominated by young residents. Therefore, voting behavior trend fluctuated depending on issue and media news, become main consideration public to elect and submit their vote. In addition to both factor, emergence of political broker in recent election has indicated urgent needs to bridging voter and candidate in order to more engage. Those three factor will be primary focus to be elaborated in this paper, how recent trend in voting behavior in Indonesia and its impact to election event.AbstrakArtikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis konstruksi perilaku memilih dalam pemilu Indonesia. Isu ini menjadi penting dan siginifikan dalam melihat pola preferensi memilih ketika akan mencontreng kertas suara. Temuan dalam riset ini memuat dua faktor penting yang menjadi basis politik perilaku memilih Indonesia. Pertama, kekuatan personal seorang elite agaknya menjadi faktor penting dalam membaca perilaku memilih tersebut. Hal ini dikarenakan kondisi demokrasi Indonesia yang masih terbajak oleh kekuatan oligarki yang masih cukup kuat. Kedua, masih adanya masa pemilih mengambang, utamanya kalangan muda dan terdidik. Hal tersebut dikarenakan perilaku politik mereka masih dipengaruhi adanya isu dan kepentingan. Di luar dari kedua faktor tersebut, munculnya broker politik dan uang politik menjadi faktor yang tidak bisa terelakan dalam konstruksi perilaku memilih di Indonesia paskareformasi.

The influence of mayors as candidates in the 2017 parliamentary elections on voter decision-making in Czechia

Local activities of electoral candidates represent one of the key factors influencing voting behaviour. Many studies have shown an elevated electoral support for candidates in the municipality of their residence and the surrounding region. By using the example of mayors who candidated in the 2017 Czech parliamentary elections, this article proves that this voting behaviour is manifested not only through the territorial concentration of preferential votes, but also through higher local electoral support of political parties represented by these candidates. This so-called friends and neighbours effect is stronger in smaller, less populous municipalities. Its spatial extent is not necessarily limited to the respective municipality, but if a well-known and popular mayor appears at the top of the regional candidate list, it can affect voters living many kilometers away, especially in non-metropolitan areas.

Political Preferences of the Ukrainian National Minority in Poland in the Elections to the European Parliament

The paper describes, interprets, and characterizes the results of elections to the European Parliament in Poland based on the voting behaviour of the Ukrainian national minority. In the article, four European elections 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 were considered. The research hypothesizes is that the Ukrainian national minority could have a distinct voting behaviour from their region of permanent living and voted obviously for the representatives of liberal and leftist political forces rather than for far-right and right, or even far-left candidates on the elections to the European Parliament. In the years 2004-2019, an interesting phenomenon could be observed in the elections to the European Parliament in the area of communes inhabited by the Ukrainian population. In the «Ukrainian» municipalities located in the northern part of Poland, where the electorate was rather liberal (Civic Platform) or possibly anti-system (Self-Defence) the election results did not differ from the rest of the regions. This phenomenon was inherent in both the West Pomeranian and Warmia-Masurian voivodships. On the other hand, in the Komańcza commune, which is located in the Subcarpathian voivodship, in which the conservative electorate has been the strongest, the results of the voting in the “Ukrainian” commune were significantly different from other communes of the region. In other words, the results of the elections in Komańcza were much more similar to the results obtained in northern and western Poland than to the results in the South-Eastern Poland. The article concludes that, in general, those municipalities, where the citizens of Ukrainian descent consist at least 10% of the overall population, vote for more liberal parties to the European Parliament. Instead, the support of rightwing political parties like Law and Justice, Kukiz’15, Korvin Confederation as a right-wing parties is much lower. Even during elections to the European Parliament in 2019, Law and Justice, victorious in the rest of the country, evidently had lower support in “Ukrainian” municipalities. The Civic Platform is perceived as a much more moderate party, guaranteeing, in their opinion, representatives of the Ukrainian minority a greater sense of security and comfort of living in the Polish state.

Italy in times of protest and negative voting: An introduction

The classic heuristics of voting behaviour have been eroded overtime especially in well-established democracies. Ideology, party identification, and social class have been gradually replaced by short-period factors. In particular, the personalization has represented an innovative variable that significantly contributes to explain voting behaviour. Cross-pressures between party identification, candidate assessments and issue preferences paved the way to the diffusion of protest voting, both against the élite and the system. In this respect, Italy represents a very interesting case from both a theoretical and an empirical point view considering the presence of protest parties and the important diffusion of anti-system movements which surfed the protest to consolidate their positions. The editors conceived this special issue aiming at analysing and measuring the impact of protest/negative voting in Italy between 2016 and 2020, a period in which protest parties and voters’ discontent have significantly increased. Data presented by the different papers confirm, albeit under different perspectives, the relevance of this peculiar form of political behaviour.