Rurality and Party System Fragmentation in the Nigerian Presidential Elections of the Fourth Republic

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-85
Author(s):  
Cletus Famous Nwankwo
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Composite Measure ◽  
Singular Measures ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Fourth Republic ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Negative Effect

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of rurality on party system fragmentation in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic. The findings show that party system fragmentation (PSF) has been characteristically low in the Nigerian presidential elections and rurality does not significantly predict party system fragmentation. Rurality has a negative effect on PSF in all the elections studied except the 2003 election but only significant in the 2011 poll. Thus, the paper cast doubt on previous studies that indicate that striking rural-urban differences manifest in party system fragmentation in African elections and attribute it to previous studies’ measure of rurality. The paper argues that the use of a composite measure of rurality instead of singular measures of rurality might provide better analysis that helps us understand the effect of rurality on party systems. Also, it argues that in the study of the rural-urban difference in voting behaviour or political behaviours more broadly, data should be aggregated based on cities and non-city areas because cities have distinctive urban characters compared with non-city places. Analyses done on states or constituencies level may not reveal the rural-urban difference because states and constituencies usually have a mix of rural and urban population and other characteristics.

Religion and Voter Choice Homogeneity in the Nigerian Presidential Elections of the Fourth Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cletus Famous Nwankwo
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Fourth Republic ◽  
Voter Choice ◽  
Specific Manifestation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This article examines the influence of religion on voter choice homogeneity (VCH) in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic (1999–2015). The result indicates that in the first two elections, religion did not have a significant impact on VCH but had increasing influence from 2011. Thus, compared with the 1999 and 2003 elections, the effect of faith in 2011 and 2015 elections was positive, but the impact of religion was highest in 2015, having a significant and robust effect on VCH. Thus, the paper demonstrates that impact of faith in the presidential elections in the fourth republic has strengthened over time. This finding is, however, put in the context of each election regarding the role of candidates’ popularity, party-identification, ethnicity, candidates’ performance, the number of candidates contesting the election and the position of prominent leaders of the different regions of the country. The paper demonstrates that placing the influence of religion on vote choice in the context of each election and place-specific manifestation of VCH is pertinent in understanding better how religion shapes voting behaviour in Nigeria.

Political Stability of Two-Party and Multiparty Systems: Probabilistic Bases for the Comparison of Party Systems

1984 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 929-951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manus I. Midlarsky
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party System ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Minimum Entropy ◽  
Multiparty Systems ◽  
Restoring Forces ◽  
The Stability

The stability of the American two-party system is examined from 1866 until 1980. Following the approach of Stokes and Iversen (1962), restoring forces are posited for presidential elections, but restraining forces also are suggested for congressional elections, leading to an equilibrium between the two in elections to the House. Points of maximum restoration in presidential elections are derived using autocorrelations, and these points suggest a pattern of second-term Republican victories every 28 years beginning in 1872.Equilibrium properties of the American two-party system lead to the twin criteria of representation and restraint in multiparty cabinet coalitions in order to achieve cabinet durabilities on the order of those found in two-party systems. Minimum entropy-minimum winning coalitions satisfy these criteria. Cabinet durabilities on the order of two-party systems can be achieved by means of a 44-55 percentage of the legislative seats won by the first party in a multiparty system.

The Historical Legacy of Party System Stability in Kerala

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-204
Author(s):  
Balu Sunilraj ◽  
Oliver Heath
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Historical Legacy ◽  
Party Formation ◽  
Geographical Structure ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Mass Democracy ◽  
Historical Legacies

Kerala has one of the most stable party systems in India, and represents a clear exception to the Indian norm of volatility, instability and electoral change. In this article, we explore the geographical structure of this stability, and examine the extent to which current political divisions are a reflection of the divisions that existed at the inception of mass democracy in Kerala more than 50 years ago. First, we examine the extent to which historical legacies of party formation shape contemporary patterns of voting behaviour. Second, we examine the extent to which these historical legacies were established along social lines to do with caste, religion and class. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results.

Ghana's political parties: how ethno/regional variations sustain the national two-party system

2006 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 623-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minion K. C. Morrison ◽  
Jae Woo Hong
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
National Level ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Party Organisation ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Fourth Republic ◽  
Complex Varieties ◽  
Election Results

This paper analyses Ghanaian electoral geography and its accompanying political party variations over the last decade. After re-democratisation in the early 1990s, the Fourth Republic of Ghana has successfully completed multiple elections and party alternation. Due to its single-member-district-plurality electoral system, the country has functioned virtually as a two-party system, privileging its two major parties – the NDC and the NPP. However, close examination of election results in the last parliamentary and presidential elections reveals that notwithstanding the two-party tendency, there is a dynamic and multilayered aspect of electoral participation in Ghanaian politics. Ethnic-based regional cleavages show much more complex varieties of electoral support for the two major parties, especially in light of fragmentation and concentration. Electoral support in the ten regions varies from strong one-party-like to almost three-party systems. Yet this lower, regional level tendency is not invariable. Regional party strengths have shifted from election to election, and it was just such shifts that made the party alternation possible in 2000. Employing traditional and newly designed indicators, this paper illustrates the patterns of electoral cleavage and regional party organisation, and how these ultimately sustain the party system at the national level in Ghana.

Federal and Subnational Elections in Russia: Coherence and Divergence in Electoral Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-353
Author(s):  
Rostislav Turovsky ◽  
Marina Sukhova
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Strong Connection ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Authoritarianism ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Regional Elections

Abstract This article examines the differences between Russian voting at federal elections and regional legislature elections, both combined and conducted independently. The authors analyse these differences, their character and their dynamics as an important characteristic of the nationalisation of the party system. They also test hypotheses about a higher level of oppositional voting and competitiveness in subnational elections, in accordance with the theory of second-order elections, as well as the strategic nature of voting at federal elections, by contrast with expressive voting during subnational campaigns. The empirical study is based on calculating the differences in votes for leading Russian parties at subnational elections and at federal elections (simultaneous, preceding and following) from 2003, when mandatory voting on party lists was widespread among the regions, to 2019. The level of competitiveness is measured in a similar way, by calculating the effective number of parties. The study indicates a low level of autonomy of regional party systems, in many ways caused by the fact that the law made it impossible to create regional parties, and then also by the 2005 ban on creation of regional blocs. The strong connection between federal and regional elections in Russia clearly underlines the fluid and asynchronic nature of its electoral dynamics, where subnational elections typically predetermine the results of the following federal campaigns. At the same time, the formal success of the nationalisation of the party system, achieved by increasing the homogeneity of voting at the 2016 and 2018 federal elections, is not reflected by the opposing process of desynchronisation between federal and regional elections after Putin’s third-term election. There is also a clear rise in the scale of the differences between the two. At the same time, the study demonstrates the potential presence in Russia of features common to subnational elections in many countries: their greater support for the opposition and presence of affective voting. However, there is a clear exception to this trend during the period of maximum mobilisation of the loyal electorate at the subnational elections immediately following the accession of Crimea in 2014–2015, and such tendencies are generally restrained by the conditions of electoral authoritarianism.

Parties, Voters, and Multi-Level Elections

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sona N. Golder ◽  
Ignacio Lago ◽  
André Blais ◽  
Elisabeth Gidengil ◽  
Thomas Gschwend
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Party System ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Electoral Institutions ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Different Levels

This chapter argues that individual voting behaviour and the strategies chosen by political parties across multiple electoral arenas should be considered jointly. Existing literature points to the importance of an election as a major driving force in voting behaviour, but it is argued that voters and parties may differ in their assessments of the importance of elections at different levels. The chapter discusses how the effect of the importance of an electoral arena, for both voter and party behaviour, will be conditioned by electoral institutions and characteristics of parties and the party system, in addition to individual voter characteristics contributing to it.

Conclusion

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D. Kenny
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Research ◽  
Party System ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
System Change ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Political Authority ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Institutional Reforms

This final chapter draws out the two main conclusions from the book. First, it discusses the policy implications of its findings. It suggests caution in the decentralization of political authority as a remedy for democratic underperformance in patronage-based democracies. Rather than making government more accountable, it may instead exacerbate principal–agent conflicts between center and periphery. More important than decentralization in the short term may be institutional reforms at the center that make parties more programmatic and responsive to citizens. Second, it sets out some of the implications of the book’s findings for the study of populism and party-system change more generally. It shows that the varied ways in which voters and parties are linked creates different pathways to the decline of establishment parties and the success of populist alternatives. Further comparative research across party systems might contribute positively to institutional reform and political change.

Segmental Volatility in Ethnically Divided Societies: (Re)assessing Party System Stability in Southeast Europe

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Damir Kapidžić ◽  
Olivera Komar
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
Party System ◽  
Ethnically Diverse ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Southeast Europe ◽  
East European ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Stabilizing Factors

Abstract This article examines the role of ethnicity and ethnic parties as stabilizing factors in Southeast European party systems. It compares two ethnically divided countries in Southeast Europe: Bosnia and Herzegovina, where ethnic identities that form the political cleavage are firm, and Montenegro, where they are malleable. Theoretically, it addresses the debate between scholars who either find stability or instability in East European post-communist party systems. The article traces the role of ethnicity in the formation and development of electoral contests and compares the two cases by utilizing measures of block volatility, based on analysis of official electoral data. We argue that party systems in ethnically diverse countries are stable at the subsystems level, but unstable within them. In BiH, firm ethnic identity stabilizes the party system by limiting competition between blocks, leading to closure. Malleable ethnic identity in Montenegro opens competition to non-ethnic parties seeking to bridge ethnic divisions, leading to more instability. We find that party system dynamics in ethnically divided new democracies depend on identity rigidity and cleavage salience, in addition to levels of heterogeneity.

scholarly journals Gut Microbiota Dynamics in Natural Populations of Pintomyia evansi under Experimental Infection with Leishmania infantum

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1214
Author(s):  
Rafael José Vivero ◽  
Victor Alfonso Castañeda-Monsalve ◽  
Luis Roberto Romero ◽  
Gregory D. Hurst ◽  
Gloria Cadavid-Restrepo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gut Microbiota ◽  
Leishmania Infantum ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Illumina Miseq ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
High Load ◽  
Leishmania Infection ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Negative Effect

Pintomyia evansi is recognized by its vectorial competence in the transmission of parasites that cause fatal visceral leishmaniasis in rural and urban environments of the Caribbean coast of Colombia. The effect on and the variation of the gut microbiota in female P. evansi infected with Leishmania infantum were evaluated under experimental conditions using 16S rRNA Illumina MiSeq sequencing. In the coinfection assay with L. infantum, 96.8% of the midgut microbial population was composed mainly of Proteobacteria (71.0%), followed by Cyanobacteria (20.4%), Actinobacteria (2.7%), and Firmicutes (2.7%). In insect controls (uninfected with L. infantum) that were treated or not with antibiotics, Ralstonia was reported to have high relative abundance (55.1–64.8%), in contrast to guts with a high load of infection from L. infantum (23.4–35.9%). ASVs that moderately increased in guts infected with Leishmania were Bacillus and Aeromonas. Kruskal–Wallis nonparametric variance statistical inference showed statistically significant intergroup differences in the guts of P. evansi infected and uninfected with L. infantum (p < 0.05), suggesting that some individuals of the microbiota could induce or restrict Leishmania infection. This assay also showed a negative effect of the antibiotic treatment and L. infantum infection on the gut microbiota diversity. Endosymbionts, such as Microsporidia infections (<2%), were more often associated with guts without Leishmania infection, whereas Arsenophonus was only found in guts with a high load of Leishmania infection and treated with antibiotics. Finally, this is the first report that showed the potential role of intestinal microbiota in natural populations of P. evansi in susceptibility to L. infantum infection.

Effect of education on migration decisions in Ghana: a rural-urban perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah ◽  
Louis Boakye-Yiadom ◽  
William Baah-Boateng
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Migration Decision ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Migration Decisions ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of education on migration decisions focusing on rural and urban in-migrants by comparing the 2005/2006 and 2012/2013 rounds of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS5 and GLSS6). After correcting for selectivity bias, the authors observed that anticipated welfare gain and socio-economic variables such as sector of employment, sex, experience, age, educational level and marital status significantly affect an individual’s migration decision. Design/methodology/approach – The authors made use of Sjaastad’s (1962) human capital framework as a basis for examining the impact of education on migration. The migration decision equation was based on the Heckman two stage procedure. Findings – While educational attainment is observed to have a positive effect on migration decision in the period 2005/2006, the authors find a negative effect of educational attainment on migration decision in the period 2012/2013. The effect of educational attainment on migration decision in 2005/2006 for urban in-migrant is higher than the effect for rural in-migrant, with its significance varying for the different stages of educational attainment. In absolute terms, whereas the effect of secondary educational attainment on migration decisions for urban in-migrant is higher than that of rural in-migrant, the reverse holds for higher educational attainment during the period 2012/2013. Social implications – Based on the mixed effect of education on migration decision as evident from the study, policies to enhance the educational system in Ghana should be complemented with job creations in the entire country. Moreover, special attention should be given to the rural sector in such a way that the jobs to be created in the sector do not require skilled workers. With quality education and job creation, the welfare of individuals living in urban and rural areas will be enhanced. Originality/value – In spite of the importance of education in migration decisions, there is scanty literature on the rural-urban dimension. To the best of the author’s knowledge there is no literature in the Ghanaian context which examines the rural and urban perspective of the impact of education on migration with a much recent data. Further, the author consider how the determinants of migration decision have changed over time focusing on rural and urban perspectives.

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