Impacts of the US monetary policy on the Vietnamese stock market

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Xuan Vinh Vo ◽  
Phuc Canh Nguyen
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 232-242
Author(s):  
Aniek Hindrayani ◽  
Fadikia K Putri ◽  
Inda F Puspitasari

Abstract: This study analyzes the spillover effects of the US monetary policy on the ASEAN stock market with Markov switching model and investigates differences in empirical results of each country from ASEAN member. The results of this study have important implications for asset price allocation, specifically in the case of a transition between US and other small countries. The results showed that the ASEAN stock market is more affected by the US interest rates during bull-market than bear-markets. This can be seen from the increasing of stock market volatility during expansion comparing with recession period. Therefore, the stock markets of ASEAN countries will not be easily affected by the dollar rate during financial crisis or the recession period. Keywords: stock market, monetary policy, spillover effect, Markov-switching modelEfek Spillover pada Perubahan Kebijakan Moneter Amerika Terhadap Stock Market di ASEANAbstrak: Penelitian ini menganalisis efek spillover akibat adanya perubahan kebijakan moneter Amerika terhadap stock market di ASEAN dengan model Markov switching dan menginvestigasi terkait ada atau tidaknya perbedaan pada hasil empiris di setiap negara anggota ASEAN. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan implikasi penting bagi mekanisme transisi harga aset, khususnya dari Amerika terhadap negara dengan skala perekonomian kecil. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa stock market ASEAN lebih mudah terpengaruh oleh tingkat suku bunga Amerika pada saat kondisi bull-market dibandingkan saat bear-market. Hal ini dapat dilihat dari tingginya volatilitas stock market pada saat ekspansi dibandingkan saat periode resesi, sehingga stock market negara-negara ASEAN tidak akan mudah terpengaruh oleh dollar pada saat perekonomian mengalami krisis atau saat periode resesi. Kata kunci: stock market, kebijakan moneter, spillover effect, model Markov-switching


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Toyoichiro Shirota

Abstract This study empirically examines whether shock size matters for the US monetary policy effects. Using a nonlinear local projection method, I find that large monetary policy shocks are less powerful than smaller monetary policy shocks, with the information effect being the potential source of the observed asymmetry in monetary policy efficacy.


Significance This volatility is driven by expectations of further monetary stimulus in response to a slowing economy. Despite persistent concerns about the fallout from the anticipated tightening in US monetary policy and many country-specific risks, such as the standoff between Greece and its creditors, equity market sentiment remains supported by accommodative monetary policies worldwide and expectations of the US monetary policy tightening being gradual. Impacts Market volatility could increase further, as better-than-expected economic data in the euro-area vies with weaker-than-anticipated US data. Decoupling of surging equity prices and weak economic fundamentals threatens the rally's sustainability, increasing scope for volatility. This decoupling is most pronounced in China, where weak economic data prompt buying of equities in anticipation of stimulus measures. The greatest risk in equity markets is uncertainty surrounding US interest rates and their impact on emerging markets.


Author(s):  
M. Yu. GOLOVNIN

The article focuses on the changes in US monetary policy since the  beginning of the 21st century and reveals the impact of this policy  on the national economies of other countries, especially emerging markets. The US monetary policy influenced the emerging  markets both through the real and financial channels. Through the  latter, the main impact was on the Treasury bills rates and on the  exchange rates. At the same time, the influence on different  countries varied in different periods. For example, interest rates in  Thailand, Mexico and Pakistan before the global economic and  financial crisis in general followed the cycle of US monetary policy.  The “quantitative easing” policy, the statements and the follow-up  actions to abolish it, have influenced cross-border capital flows to  emerging markets. A number of countries, including Russia,  experienced the impact of US monetary policy through the dynamics  of oil prices. Emerging markets face restrictions on their monetary  policy from the US monetary policy, but in practice they seek to  circumvent them through exchange rate regulation, restrictions on  crossborder capital flows and the pursuit of an independent monetary policy, not following the  cycles of interest rate changes in the US.


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