FDI in the Post-Soviet Space Three Decades after the Disintegration of the Soviet Union

The former Soviet Union disintegrated three decades ago. That momentous 1991 was not only the starting point for independence of the countries of the post-Soviet space but also the starting point for their transformation from centrally planned economy to capitalism, often with local specificities. At the moment of writing this article aiming at analysing the long-term, structural characteristics of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI), these 12 economies are facing new COVID-19-related challenges, different from the problems of transformation undertaken in the past decades. After a brief literature survey, in which the main issues raised by academic research are highlighted, the article analyses the long-term trends and the main characteristics (geographical and sectoral) of FDI, with special reference to greenfield project announcements from 2003 on (the starting year of data availability). It also explores how much economic development was based on either attracting inward or promoting outward FDI or both. The performance of the 12 post-Soviet economies is controlled against the performance of other transition economies such as the Baltic States, South-East Europe and/or the Visegrad Group. The article concludes that indeed efforts towards using inward or outward FDI for development has been modest, even if in inflows one can observe some convergence with the other transition economies, which have been relying more wittingly using FDI for their development.

The Perception of Russia by Young People in Post-Soviet Countries: the Experience of Sociological Assessment

The decades that have passed since the collapse of the USSR have identified serious challenges for Russia, the answer to which depends on the prospect of maintaining its leadership position in the integration processes in the modern post-Soviet space, not only due to objective advantages in the possession of resources, but also due to its attractiveness for the younger generation of the post-Soviet countries. The article makes an attempt of a sociological assessment of the perception of modern Russian humanitarian projects by young people in post-Soviet countries, their willingness to join the international educational projects proposed by Russia and build a trajectory of professional development, taking into account the opportunities available in Russia. The authors draw attention to the need for regular monitoring of the perception of Russia by the youth of the post-Soviet countries in order to adapt the proposed programs of international cooperation to the needs of the target audience, and also offer a methodology for its construction.

Caspian Vector of the EAEU Transport and Logistics Policy

One of the goals of the Eurasian Economic Union is the formation of single markets for goods, services, capital and labor resources. A key aspect for the realization of the stated goal is the development of the EAEU transport and logistics potential. The formation of a single transport space, ensuring the free movement of goods and passenger traffic require an expansion of the EAEU participation in main international logistics projects, as well as the achievement of an agreed transport policy of member states. The purpose of this article is to determine the possibilities and limitations of interactions between the EAEU and Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan in the transport and logistics sphere. The article analyses the main directions and objectives of the EAEU transport policy, assesses the dynamics of the main indicators of the Union’s transport activities. The author considered key international transport projects for the EAEU. Logistics programs and corridors that pass through the territories of Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan are highlighted: the North-South international transport corridor, the EAEU and the Silk Road Economic Belt interface project, as well as the Central Asian regional economic cooperation programs and the Europe-Caucasus-Asia corridor project. The transit potential of the Caspian region in general and the territories of the represented countries in particular was studied. Analysis of the retrospective of relations of the EAEU with these countries is presented. The main result of the study is a description of promising areas of cooperation, individual projects and formats of cooperation in the transport and logistics sphere between the EAEU and the countries of the southern Caspian Sea. The author concludes that it is necessary to rehabilitate and reactualize the idea of the “Great Eurasian Partnership” in the light of the identified restrictions for the full integration of South Caspian countries into the EAEU.

“Evidence-based Policy” and “Policy of Evidence”: The Dilemma of Post-Soviet Societies

External and internalchallenges, risks and crisis phenomena operatingin the world and national states requirethe ruling regimes to flexibly restructurethe configuration of relations betweenpower and society. One of the toolsof such communication is the methods of“evidence-based policy”, which involve addressingthe population on the basis of expertand scientific recommendations whendeveloping goals that allow people not onlyto judge their legality, but also to challengeand correct their content. At the same time,in a number of transitional and authoritarianstates, preference is given to the “policy ofevidence” that demonstrates the priorities ofpolitically expedient actions of the authoritiesaimed not at partnership with society, but at mobilizing the support of the populationfor the implementation of the goalsof government policy. In this context, thearticle shows the objective and subjectivelimitations of the use of scientific andexpert data in the public sphere by a numberof post-Soviet states, the peculiarities ofthe correlation of “evidence-based policy”and “policy of evidence” in the activities ofthe ruling regimes, and assesses their prospectsin the short term in modern Russiansociety.

Social Consequences of Economic Reforms: Subjective Perception vs Statistical Data

The attitude of the Russian population to the economic reforms that began in this country in January 1992 remains ambiguous. While liberals emphasize that the government of the “young reformers” has opened the way to economic freedom, their opponents believe that the social and financial price paid by the population for the transition to the market was too high. The discussions are mainly conducted in the political terms, but rarely in the fields of economic and social analysis. Based on official statistical data, the article attempts to objectively assess to what extent the situation of the early 1990s was inevitable, and to what extent it was the result of economic reforms. The author analyzes the most acute problems from a social point of view, namely the depreciation of pre-reform saving deposits of the population and the deterioration of demographic indicators. The impact of reforms on the labor market is a separate problem that deserves special consideration. Recognizing the inevitability of market reforms, the author considers options for mitigating the severity of the social situation that have not been implemented for various reasons and some of the compensating tools that were adopted by the Russian Government at the initial stage of reforms.

Outcomes of 30 Years of Economic Transformation in the Post-Soviet Space: Light and Shadows

The article provides a comparative assessment of the socio-economic development results of 12 post-Soviet countries (excluding the Baltic countries) in the period from 1992 to 2019. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of real GDP and GDP per capita, it is concluded that the most successful were some countries of Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) and Armenia. It is noted that in terms of economic development, significant convergence with Russian indicators has been achieved by Kazakhstan and Belarus. The successful economic dynamics was due to the active role of the state, the regulation of exchange rate dynamics and the achievement of a relatively high rate of investments to GDP at certain stages of economic development. On the whole, the problem of high inflation, which was relevant in the 1990s, has been overcome. Social problems of poverty and inequality persist in individual countries, high dependence on external factors of economic dynamics, instability of the exchange rate dynamics and primitivization of the economy still remain as important problems in the region. It is emphasized that the factors of economic growth that operated in the post-Soviet countries during the period under review are coming to an end, which requires a search for a new economic model.

RAND Looks at Moscow: Russia`s Strategic Capabilities and the Post-Soviet Space in the Assessments of American Experts

This paper looks at a series of analytical reports published in 2015– 2020 by the RAND Corporation focused on Russia, its armed forces and the policies pursued by Moscow on the territory of the former Soviet Union. The assumption by the author is that the expert community in the United States can exert greater influence on US foreign policy than is generally accepted in Russia. Historically, in the United States, there has been a strong link between expert consideration of any given policy and its subsequent implementation. Reports published by RAND help assess the role that Russia and the former Soviet Union play on the list of US national security priorities. Does Washington understand the domestic-policy motives of Russia’s actions on the international stage? What is America’s overall assessment of Russia’s military capabilities? Finally, what is the extent of Washington’s willingness to seek compromise with Moscow and its foreign policy aspirations? The source analyzed in the paper can shed some light on how the political community in the United States views the future of the rivalry between Russia and America.

Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance

The article provides a comparative analysis of the financial sector of Russia and other countries in the structure of the global economy; international comparisons are made over 30 years in terms of financial depth, including monetization, “saturation” with loans and securities, inflation, and interest rate. The inadequacy of the size of the financial sector to the size of the Russian economy is shown, the extremely high volatility of financial variables is analyzed (using the example of the exchange rate and changes in the institutional network (banks and non-bank financial institutions)). The model of the financial sector is revealed (excessive role of the state, overconcentration in the markets and among financial institutions, oligopolization, “monetary desertification” of regions, excessive administrative costs, focus on capital export). Shown is the “pro-crisis” nature of the financial sector in Russia (1– 2 crises in 10–15 years). The complete correspondence of the parameters of the financial sector of Russia to other developing economies is demonstrated (the fourth – seventh dozen countries in terms of financial depth). It is shown that the parameters of financial development, as a rule, are worse than the groups of countries with lower middle income (according to the international classification). The analysis of the Russian economic model made it possible to show the cause-and-effect relationships between it and the financial sector model, their interdependence. Four scenarios of the economic future (“besieged fortress”, “frozen economy”, “Spanish”, “growth economy”) are given, with estimates of their probability, and on this basis the corresponding scenarios for the future development of the Russian financial sector. The scenario of the “growth economy” based on the change in the model of the economy in Russia, the policy of “financial afterburner” and the formation of a new model of the financial sector in Russia is more fully disclosed.

Thirty Years from the End of the USSR

The article contains a brief retrospective assessment of the reasons given by various scholars and observers for the breakdown of the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev’s leadership and it situates that crisis in the larger context of history and the imperial legacy of the Russian state. It particularly looks at the issue of nationality as an ethnic, cultural and linguistic concept vis-a-vis the universalistic notion of empire as a community of destiny among diverse people. The author compares the Soviet Union’s structure as a ‘non classical’ empire to those of other European states and especially to Germany’s which has also evolved from being a loose Central and East European ‘Reich’ inspired by the Roman and Carolingian heritage – to becoming a federal nation surrounded by smaller countries that share with it ancient civilisational and political legacy. Whereas Germany is gradually asserting leadership among many of its former dependencies and in the post-Brexit European Union as a whole, Russia is led by geographical and strategic compulsions to rebuild a Eurasian confederal association with erstwhile Soviet Republics and possessions of the Tsarist Empire, in conformity with its location between the ‘West’, the Islamosphere and the Chinese world. Will Russia be able to create a synthesis between the Slav Orthodox Oikoumene envisioned by Nikolay Danilevsky and the Eurasian syncretistic model promoted by Lev Gumilyov?

“Nostalgia Not for the Past but Nostalgia for the Present”: Post-Soviet Youth on USSR’s Collapse

. The article focuses on the perceptions of the generation of post-Soviet youth about the collapse of the USSR. An attempt to analyse the reasons for the favourable and “nostalgic” attitude to the USSR on the part of those who, due to their age, have no experience of Soviet life is made. It is shown that, according to mass surveys, attitudes towards the collapse of the USSR depend on the age of respondents: older generations predominantly perceive the collapse of the Soviet Union negatively, while among young people (especially in the youngest cohort of 18-24-year olds) the number of those who are not upset about the collapse of the USSR exceeds the number who regret it. The dynamics of public opinion on this event have been erratic in recent years, strongly influenced by the “Crimean effect”: during the Crimean crisis – 2014, the number of those regretting the collapse of the USSR rose sharply, but, years later, it has returned to its previous level. The data of the author’s study devoted to the problem of perception of post-Soviet transformations and the 90s in general by young Russians are given. The study conducted has shown that young people’s attitudes towards the post-Soviet period in Russian society are mainly based on clichés about the “wild” nineties that have been replicated in the Russian media. In their assessments, young people often rely on the views of parents (or other older relatives) and teachers. The mythology of young people’s perception of the events of December 1991 and their internal distance from the last decade of the XX century, as well as their poor knowledge of Soviet and post-Soviet realities of life are noted. The conclusion is drawn that some young people’s interest in the Soviet past stems from dreams of a prosperous and just society of equal opportunities, from which today’s Russia is so far removed.