The non-linear effects of the Fed asset purchases

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Anzuini
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
American Economic Review ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Asset Purchases

Abstract The Federal Reserve responded to the great financial crisis deploying new monetary policy tools, the most notable of which being the expansion of its balance sheet. In a recent paper, Weale, M., and T. Wieladek. 2016. “What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Asset Purchases?” Journal of Monetary Economics 79 (C): 81–93 show that the asset purchases were effective in stimulating economic activity as well as inflation and asset prices. Here I show that their results are state dependent: large scale asset purchase are effective only when financial markets are impaired. Financial markets are under stress when the effective risk-bearing capacity of the financial sector is drastically reduced, i.e. when the excess bond premium (EBP) of Gilchrist, S., and E. Zakrajšek. 2012. “Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations.” The American Economic Review 102 (4): 1692–72 exceed a certain threshold. Using an estimated threshold vector autoregressive model conditional on the EBP regime, I show that an increase in the balance sheet has expansionary effects on GDP and inflation when EBP is high, but not when it is low (as its effects become mostly insignificant). I argue that the high EBP can be interpreted as a proxy of market dis-functioning so that only when this channel of transmission is on, the unconventional policy is particularly effective. This suggests that models of transmission of unconventional policies, based on asset purchases, should focus also on the market functioning channel and not only on the portfolio balance one.

scholarly journals Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures and Inflation Expectations

2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Mehmet Pasaogullari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Asset Purchases

The record increase in the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet after the financial crisis ignited fears among some people that high inflation would inevitably follow. We investigated whether those fears were supported in survey or market measures of inflation expectations around the time that large-scale asset purchases were announced. Nothing suggests that the Fed's new policy tools have been perceived by professional forecasters or financial markets as harbingers of hyperinflation.

scholarly journals International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 342-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami Alpanda ◽  
Serdar Kabaca
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Asset Purchases ◽  
Term Premia

Abstract This paper evaluates the international spillover effects of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) using an estimated two-country dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities and portfolio balance effects. Portfolio balance effects arise from imperfect substitutability between short- and long-term bond portfolios in each country, as well as between domestic and foreign bonds within these portfolios. We show that LSAPs in the United States lower long-term yields and stimulate economic activity not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world (ROW) economy. This occurs despite the currency appreciation in the ROW and the resulting deterioration in their trade balance. The key for this result is the decline in the ROW term premia through the portfolio balance channel, as the relative demand for ROW long-term bonds increases following an LSAP in the United States. Our model indicates that US asset purchases that generate the same output effect as US conventional monetary policy has larger international spillovers due to stronger portfolio balance effects. We also show that international openness in financial markets reduces the stimulatory effects of LSAPs in the originating country, while increasing their international spillover effects.

Portfolio balance effects and the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Emmerling ◽  
Robert Jarrow ◽  
Yildiray Yildirim
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Substitution Effect ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
Asset Purchases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Equity Effects

Purpose Whereas much of previous literature focuses upon the impact on yields from the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), the purpose of this paper is to study the changes to expected returns. Design/methodology/approach This empirical investigation offers support for changes to risk premia coincident with LSAPs. Findings For both equity and bonds, the authors find evidence for supply/demand LSAPs effects; the equity effects are consistent with a substitution effect from bonds to equities, whereas the bond effects appear to be an anomaly. Originality/value The findings represent new insight for weighing the efficacy and identifying the scope of LSAPs.

scholarly journals A SUNSPOT-BASED THEORY OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Roger E. A. Farmer ◽  
Pawel Zabczyk
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Efficient Outcome ◽  
Complete Set ◽  
Pareto Efficient ◽  
Financial Securities

This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet. We construct a general equilibrium model where agents have rational expectations, and there is a complete set of financial securities, but where some agents are unable to participate in financial markets. We show that a change in the risk composition of the central bank’s balance sheet affects equilibrium asset prices and economic activity. We prove that, in our model, a policy in which the central bank stabilizes non-fundamental fluctuations in the stock market is self-financing and leads to a Pareto efficient outcome.

How can an economic scenario generation model cope with abrupt changes in financial markets?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Hsi Lee ◽  
Ming-Hua Hsieh ◽  
Weiyu Kuo ◽  
Chenghsien Jason Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Scenario Generation ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Key Issues

PurposeIt is quite possible that financial institutions including life insurance companies would encounter turbulent situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic before policies mature. Constructing models that can generate scenarios for major assets to cover abrupt changes in financial markets is thus essential for the financial institution's risk management.Design/methodology/approachThe key issues in such modeling include how to manage the large number of risk factors involved, how to model the dynamics of chosen or derived factors and how to incorporate relations among these factors. The authors propose the orthogonal ARMA–GARCH (autoregressive moving-average–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) approach to tackle these issues. The constructed economic scenario generation (ESG) models pass the backtests covering the period from the beginning of 2018 to the end of May 2020, which includes the turbulent situations caused by COVID-19.FindingsThe backtesting covering the turbulent period of COVID-19, along with fan charts and comparisons on simulated and historical statistics, validates our approach.Originality/valueThis paper is the first one that attempts to generate complex long-term economic scenarios for a large-scale portfolio from its large dimensional covariance matrix estimated by the orthogonal ARMA–GARCH model.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document