Emerging Markets Interest Rates, International Reserves and Net Foreign Assets

In the context of a managed float regime, we adopt the portfolio balance view to show the effects of the net foreign assets of an economy and its gross international reserves level on interest rate differentials. We argue that the interest rate differential can be explained by three components, where the components are the expected depreciation of the domestic currency, a default risk premium, and a portfolio balance premium. Our theoretical analysis suggests that the interest differential is a convex function of the level of gross international reserves. In particular, the differential and gross reserves are inversely related at low levels of reserves, but positively at higher levels. We evaluate our framework for the case of Lebanon. We find that the differential is inversely related to both net foreign assets and gross international reserves. These findings are then confirmed with data from Indonesia and Mexico.

Configuring the Enterprise Systems Portfolio: The Role of Information Risk

Information risk, the likelihood that corporate financial information is of poor quality, adversely impacts investor confidence regarding a firm’s financial health, making it an economically important problem. Viewing a firm’s enterprise systems (ES) portfolio as made up of operational modules (customer relationship management and supply chain management) and functional modules (accounting and finance, and human resource management), we examine how firms configure their ES portfolio by changing the balance in the implementation of two types of modules in response to information risk. We find internal controls to be an important contingency in determining how firms change their ES portfolio balance when information risk increases. When there is no weakness in internal controls, firms change their ES portfolio balance more toward operational modules. However, when internal controls are afflicted with material weakness, firms change their ES portfolio balance more toward functional modules instead. When evaluating the link between ES portfolio configuration and information processing requirements in the context of financial processes, managers should assess both information risk and internal controls to decide how to change the balance between operational and functional modules that are implemented.

Analyzing the efficiency of portfolio strategies based on the dividend yield concept: Evidence from the Russian stock market

Subject. The article focuses on the formation and management of the securities portfolio. In developed economies, various strategies are used to manage portfolios. The tendencies permeate the practice of portfolio managers and in the domestic market. Objectives. We analyze the efficiency of portfolio management strategies based on the dividend yield concept in order to find the most appropriate one for the Russian market for mid-term investment. Methods. The study is based on general methods of logic, comparative and statistical analysis, graphical and indicative comparative analysis. Results. Having tested strategies based on the dividend yield concept, we suggested using an improved mid-term strategy, which may suit many investors, including institutional ones. The article presents our suggestions on the improvement of a strategy for creating and managing a securities portfolio in the Russian stock market, which is based on the Dogs-of-the-Do principle. Conclusions and Relevance. Drawing upon the dividend yield concept, the proposed strategy ensures the average yield exceeding those of DOW 5 and DOW 10 strategies, bank deposit and investment in federal loan bonds. However, it is inferior to IMOEX and MOEXBS due to the lose of the portfolio balance once a year. Securities within the strategy make up ETF to lure more investors. The inclusion of FXUS increased the average annual yield by 2.45 percent. The addition of FXMM significantly reduces foreign currency risks. To optimize the strategy, there should be REPO with the central counterpart and CCP-cleared REPO, which raises its yield through arbitrage transactions.

The non-linear effects of the Fed asset purchases

The Federal Reserve responded to the great financial crisis deploying new monetary policy tools, the most notable of which being the expansion of its balance sheet. In a recent paper, Weale, M., and T. Wieladek. 2016. “What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Asset Purchases?” Journal of Monetary Economics 79 (C): 81–93 show that the asset purchases were effective in stimulating economic activity as well as inflation and asset prices. Here I show that their results are state dependent: large scale asset purchase are effective only when financial markets are impaired. Financial markets are under stress when the effective risk-bearing capacity of the financial sector is drastically reduced, i.e. when the excess bond premium (EBP) of Gilchrist, S., and E. Zakrajšek. 2012. “Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations.” The American Economic Review 102 (4): 1692–72 exceed a certain threshold. Using an estimated threshold vector autoregressive model conditional on the EBP regime, I show that an increase in the balance sheet has expansionary effects on GDP and inflation when EBP is high, but not when it is low (as its effects become mostly insignificant). I argue that the high EBP can be interpreted as a proxy of market dis-functioning so that only when this channel of transmission is on, the unconventional policy is particularly effective. This suggests that models of transmission of unconventional policies, based on asset purchases, should focus also on the market functioning channel and not only on the portfolio balance one.

Exchange Rate Determination: The Portfolio-Balance Approach

The portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination is part of the Asset Market Models and is largely attributed to economists after 1973 when the exchange rate became flexible (market determined). This article first introduces the setting of the model embedded in the portfolio balance approach that encompasses two assets (money and bonds), which deviates a little from the models and approaches used for the monetary approach to the balance of payment, the overshooting model, and from the associated market equilibria. The effects of monetary policy, of current account, and of wealth under the portfolio-balance approach are examined, here, theoretically and empirically. The current econometric results show that the exchange rate is determined by the foreign bonds, the domestic interest rate, and the foreign interest rate. JEL classification numbers: F31, F47, E52, E41, C52, E21, E43. Keywords: Foreign Exchange, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy, Demand for Money, Model Evaluation and Testing, Consumption and Saving, Interest Rates.

Portfolio Balance Approach to Asymmetries, Structural Breaks and Financial Crisis: Testing a Model for Nigeria

This study tests the Portfolio Balance Theory (PBT) for Nigeria for the period starting from September 1997 to September 2018. It extends the hypothesized linear inverse relationship between exchange rate and stock price to include asymmetries and structural breaks. It further examines the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the PBT to determine its stability after the crisis. The full sample results show that the PBT holds for Nigeria and asymmetries and structural breaks matter in the nexus between stock price and exchange rate. However, the impact of stock price on exchange rate diminished in the long-run with the advent of the 2008 global financial crisis, thus eroding the relative consistency of the PBT after the crisis. The sensitivity of the Nigerian exchange rate to stock price changes calls for the strengthening of the stock market performance through relevant policies including the enhancement of portfolio diversification and risk-hedging assets. The role of asymmetries should not also be jettisoned in predicting exchange rate with stock prices to obtain accurate forecast results.

A Portfolio Balance Model of the Open Economy

This paper develops a framework in which to investigate the effects of macroeconomic policies. The key building blocks are those of Metzler (1968, 1973) in the form of a wealth saving relation and the emphasis on portfolio considerations; the model in its dynamic aspects is extended in a manner suggested in the work of Foley/Sidrauski (1971) and Mussa (1973), where the asset accumulation implied by short-run equilibrium is pursued over time.