scholarly journals Autonomes Fahren statt Stop and Go: Vorschläge zur effektiven Gestaltung der deutschen Kurzarbeit

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 252-260
Author(s):  
Almut Balleer ◽  
Britta Gehrke ◽  
Brigitte Hochmuth ◽  
Christian Merkl
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Stop And Go ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Short Time

Abstract This article argues that short-time work stabilized employment in Germany substantially during the Great Recession in 2008/09. The labor market instrument acted in timely manner, as it was used in a rule-based fashion. In addition, discretionary extensions were effective due to their interaction with the business cycle. To ensure that short-time work will be effective in the future, this article proposes an automatic facilitation of the access to short-time work in severe recessions. This reduces the likelihood of a too extensive use at the wrong point in time as well as structural instead of cyclical interventions.

scholarly journals Temping fates in Spain: hours and employment in a dual labor market during the Great Recession and COVID-19

SERIEs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Lafuente ◽  
Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis ◽  
Ludo Visschers
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Dual Labor Market ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Temporary Contracts ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Time Work ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Permanent Workers ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe investigate the behavior of aggregate hours supplied by workers in permanent (open-ended) contracts and temporary contracts, distinguishing changes in employment (extensive margin) and hours per worker (intensive margin). We focus on the differences between the Great Recession and the start of the COVID-19 Recession. In the Great Recession, the loss in aggregate hours is largely accounted for by employment losses (hours per worker did not adjust) and initially mainly by workers in temporary contracts. In contrast, in the early stages of the COVID-19 Recession, approximately sixty percent of the drop in aggregate hours is accounted for by permanent workers that do not only adjust hours per worker (beyond average) but also face employment losses—accounting for one-third of the total employment losses in the economy. We argue that our comparison across recessions allows for a more general discussion on the impact of adjustment frictions in the dual labor market and the effects policy, in particular the short-time work policy (ERTE) in Spain.

Some surprising facts about working time accounts and the business cycle in Germany

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (7) ◽  
pp. 940-953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almut Balleer ◽  
Britta Gehrke ◽  
Christian Merkl
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Working Time ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Employment Adjustment ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Short Time

Purpose Working time accounts (WTAs) allow firms to smooth hours worked over time. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether this increase in flexibility has also affected how firms adjust employment in Germany over the business cycle. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses rich microeconomic panel data and fixed effects estimations to compare the employment adjustment of firms with and without WTAs. Findings The authors show that firms with WTAs show a similar separation and hiring behavior in response to revenue changes as firms without WTAs. One possible explanation is that firms without WTAs used short-time work (STW) to adjust hours worked instead. However, the authors find that firms with WTAs use STW more than firms without WTAs. Originality/value These findings call into question the popular hypothesis that WTAs were the key driver of the unusually small increase in German unemployment in the Great Recession.

Consumption, unemployment and the Great Recession

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 724-743
Author(s):  
Joaquín Alegre ◽  
Llorenç Pou
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Consumption Smoothing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Household Members ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Unemployment Persistence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test whether households with members that experience job loss shocks are able to protect their previous level of consumption. The paper also tests whether consumption protection is affected when spells persist through time. Design/methodology/approach – The paper estimates an intertemporal consumption model, where households try to smooth their marginal utility over time. For that purpose it analyses Spanish household budget surveys that span a long period, 1999-2012, including the Great Recession. Unlike most consumption datasets, this microdata is designed as a panel and provides detailed information for all consumption categories as well as household members’ labour status. Findings – The paper finds that consumption smoothing is dependent on the household member facing the unemployment transition. In particular, only main breadwinner’s unemployment transitions affects consumption smoothing. It also shows that the consumption drop persists beyond the period of the job loss for ongoing spells, although it follows a decreasing pattern. Finally, the estimation results are stable over the business cycle. Practical implications – The results suggest that Spanish households are not capable of fully insuring against main breadwinner’s unemployment shocks. Further, the results show that this effect remains up to two years for ongoing unemployment spells. Thus these results highlight a welfare loss by Spanish households with unemployed members. Originality/value – The paper extends the usual analysis of job loss shocks by the main breadwinner to include the cases of both the spouse and the rest of household members, who tend to account for most unemployment. Further, it tests for unemployment persistence. Finally, it checks the sensitivity of the results to the business cycle, including the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Leiva-Leon
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simultaneous Inferences

AbstractThis paper proposes a probabilistic model based on comovements and nonlinearities useful to assess the type of shock affecting each phase of the business cycle. By providing simultaneous inferences on the phases of real activity and inflation cycles, contractionary episodes are dated and categorized into demand, supply and mix recessions. The impact of shocks originated in the housing market over the business cycle is also assessed, finding that recessions are usually accompanied by housing deflationary pressures, while expansions are mainly influenced by housing demand shocks, with the only exception occurred during the period surrounding the “Great Recession,” affected by expansionary housing supply shocks.

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