Einleitung

Author(s):  
Reinhard Spree

AbstractThis introduction to the special issue on “Cycles and Crises” offers in part a critical look at developments in economic theory that have diverted interest from the business cycle, now considered to be obsolete. To the contrary, we argue here that all economic crises including the most recent are based on cyclical downtrends that are reinforced, prolonged and transformed by externalities.Moreover, these pages present the thesis that cyclical downtrends turn into profound and long-lasting economic crises when they occur during phases of accelerated structural change in economy and society. Thus they happen simultaneously with political conflicts among the larger groups of winners and losers in the processes of change.These contributions question what, if anything, might be learned from the history of cycles and crises. Probably very little, because the desire for excessive profit prompts investors to ignore larger lessons. Instead, people brush aside whatever rules and guidelines are suggested by the study of history. Finally, individual contributions on the topic are briefly introduced.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy BRILLANT

This paper deals with a debate between Hawtrey, Hicks and Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey (1932, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.


Author(s):  
Paul Turner ◽  
Justine Wood

This paper reconsiders the contribution of Henry Ludwell Moore to dynamic economics through the use of harmonic analysis. We show that Moore’s analysis is innovative in its use of the Fourier transformation for the identification of cycles with different periodicities. This enables Moore to identify cycles of longer length with more precision than would be the case for the standard methodology. We are able to replicate the main features of his results and confirm the existence of a rainfall cycle with a periodicity similar to that of the business cycle (eight years). However, we find that the evidence for a longer (thirty-three-year) rainfall cycle is weaker than Moore indicates. We also argue that a central theme of Moore’s analysis—the relationship among rainfall, agricultural productivity, and the business cycle—marks an early precursor of the “real business cycle” approach. George Stigler’s (1962) dismissal of Moore’s work on cycles as “a complete failure” is therefore, in our opinion, unfair. Instead, we argue that, although his work is certainly flawed, it nevertheless deserves a place in both the history of business cycle theory and empirical economics.


1970 ◽  
Vol 51 ◽  
pp. 33-46

This chapter begins by reviewing the position of the economy in relation to the business cycle; it goes on to comment on the behaviour of unemployment, briefly considers the question of structural change, and then discusses, at greater length, the stance of policy. It concludes by extending the forecast outlook to 1972 and illustrates some economic possibilities for the medium term.


2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adil H. Mouhammed

Over his career, Thorstein Veblen provided the economics profession with a magnificent economic theory which later proved superior to other economic theories. His principle theory concerns the microeconomic foundations of reserve productive capacity and mark-up pricing. He also examines macroeconomic theory dealing with inflation, unemployment, the business cycle, productivity and income distribution, and economic development. His entire economic theory is ultimately critical of imperialism, militarism, and patriotism, as well as the higher plane capitalism in its zenith of large corporations and financial magnates. Given all these contributions, Marxist economists such as Sweezy, Baran, Dowd, and Hunt have criticized Veblen’s work as being grounded in Say’s Law. They criticize Veblen for having no adequate theory of investment and employment, a weak theory of imperialism, an incomplete theory of the business cycle, a tendency to racism, weak materialism, and so on. This paper aims at providing a condensed review of Veblen’s economic theory within his evolutionary framework, and criticizes the Marxist critique of Veblen’s work. It is hoped that this paper will convince Veblen’s critics of the significant value of his work.


2020 ◽  
pp. 007542422096977
Author(s):  
Claudia Claridge ◽  
Merja Kytö

This introductory paper sets the scene for the present double special issue on degree phenomena. Besides introducing the individual contributions, it positions degree in the overlapping fields of intensity, focus and emphasis. It outlines the wide-ranging means of expressing degree, their possible categorizations, as well as the many-fold uses of intensification with respect to involvement, politeness, evaluation, emotive expression and persuasion. It also decribes the many angles from which degree features have been studied as extending across, e.g., (historical) sociolinguistics, (historical) pragmatics, and grammaticalization.


ORDO ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-46
Author(s):  
Lachezar Grudev

Abstract Walter Eucken formulated his concept of economic order as a solution to the tension between theoretical approaches and empirical observation that had constituted the conflict between the Austrian School of Economics and the German Historical School. Previous literature has established the linkage between the German-language business cycle debate of the late 1920 s and Eucken’s concept of economic order. This paper discusses how his concept of economic order can help to understand the severity of economic crises and thus concentrates on the elements constituting the economic order, i. e. its ideal types, with whose help Eucken aimed to derive hypothetical propositions. Based on the writings of his students Leonhard Miksch and Friedrich A. Lutz who underscored the role of equilibrium in business cycle research, this paper suggests that abstract theory of economic crises should employ ideal types as models and thus study how exogenous shocks affect the endogenous economic variables. The subject of inquiry should be oriented to the process of equilibrium reestablishment. Crucial for this paper is that the equilibrium reestablishment depends on institutional factors. This method to explain economic crises represents the link which connects the business cycle debate of the 1920 s and 1930 s to the subsequent emergence of the ordoliberal theory of institutions and orders.


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