AbstractThis introduction to the special issue on “Cycles and Crises” offers in part a critical look at developments in economic theory that have diverted interest from the business cycle, now considered to be obsolete. To the contrary, we argue here that all economic crises including the most recent are based on cyclical downtrends that are reinforced, prolonged and transformed by externalities.Moreover, these pages present the thesis that cyclical downtrends turn into profound and long-lasting economic crises when they occur during phases of accelerated structural change in economy and society. Thus they happen simultaneously with political conflicts among the larger groups of winners and losers in the processes of change.These contributions question what, if anything, might be learned from the history of cycles and crises. Probably very little, because the desire for excessive profit prompts investors to ignore larger lessons. Instead, people brush aside whatever rules and guidelines are suggested by the study of history. Finally, individual contributions on the topic are briefly introduced.
The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective
