Publication and Identification Biases in Measuring the Intertemporal Substitution of Labor Supply

The intertemporal substitution (Frisch) elasticity of labor supply governs the predictions of real business cycle models and models of taxation. We show that, for the extensive margin elasticity, two biases conspire to systematically produce large positive estimates when the elasticity is in fact zero. Among 723 estimates in 36 studies, the mean reported elasticity is 0.5. One half of that number is due to publication bias: larger estimates are reported preferentially. The other half is due to identification bias: studies with less exogenous time variation in wages report larger elasticities. Net of the biases, the literature implies a zero mean elasticity and, with 95% confidence, is inconsistent with calibrations above 0.25. To derive these results we collect 23 variables that reflect the context in which the elasticity was obtained, use nonlinear techniques to correct for publication bias, and employ Bayesian and frequentist model averaging to address model uncertainty.

A Real-Business-Cycle Model with Institutional Quality: The Case of Bulgaria (1999–2018)

This paper takes an otherwise standard real-business-cycle (RBC) setup with government sector, and augments it with an output-expropriation mechanism and shocks to institutional quality in order to study business cycle fluctuations. The extraction decision is endogenous: households can use their time either productively, or engage in opportunistic activities. Stronger institutions decrease the size of the available resources for capture, and suppress corrupt behavior. As a test case, the model is calibrated to Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999–2018). Overall, the shocks to institutional quality generate business cycles of the same magnitude as in data, which suggests that political economy factors might be the major driving force behind the observed economic fluctuations in Bulgaria. Another interesting result, generated by the model, is that on average, the estimated size of evaded resources is approximately one-fourth of output, which is very close to the estimates of the unofficial economy share, e.g. European Commission (2014). Special eurobarometer 402: undeclared work. European Commission, Brussels and Medina, L. and Schneider, F. (2017). Shadow economies around the world: what did we learn over the last 20 Years? IMF Working Paper WP/18/17. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.

Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis

This is a brief introduction to the special issue on “New Developments in Modelling and Estimation of Economic Cycles” . The concept and definition of economic and business cycles are discussed together with two main schools of thought, the Keynesian and the neoclassical. Until the Keynesian revolution in mainstream economics in the wake of the Great Depression, classical and neoclassical explanations were the mainstream explanation of economic cycles; following the Keynesian revolution, neoclassical macroeconomics was largely rejected. There has been some resurgence of neoclassical approaches in the form of real business cycle (RBC) theory. Real business cycle theory is a class of macroeconomic model in which business cycle fluctuations to a large extent can be accounted for by real (in contrast to nominal) shocks. In a broad sense , there have been two ways by which economic and business cycles have been studied, one analyzing complete cycles and the other, studying the behavior of the economic indicators during incomplete phases by comparing current contractions or expansions whith corresponding phases in the past in order to assess current economic conditions. Two different methodologies have been applied for current economic analysis, the parametric one, that makes use of filters based on models, such as ARIMA and State Space models , and the other based on nonparametric digital filtering. Some of the invited papers of this issue deal with this second approach.

New Perspectives on Henry Ludwell Moore’s Use of Harmonic Analysis

This paper reconsiders the contribution of Henry Ludwell Moore to dynamic economics through the use of harmonic analysis. We show that Moore’s analysis is innovative in its use of the Fourier transformation for the identification of cycles with different periodicities. This enables Moore to identify cycles of longer length with more precision than would be the case for the standard methodology. We are able to replicate the main features of his results and confirm the existence of a rainfall cycle with a periodicity similar to that of the business cycle (eight years). However, we find that the evidence for a longer (thirty-three year) rainfall cycle is weaker than Moore indicates. We also argue that a central theme of Moore’s analysis, the relationship between rainfall, agricultural productivity and the business cycle, marks an early precursor of the ‘Real Business Cycle’ approach. Stigler’s (1962) dismissal of Moore’s work on cycles as ‘a complete failure’ is therefore, in our opinion rather unfair. Instead, we argue that, although his work is certainly flawed, it nevertheless deserves a place in both the history of business cycle theory and empirical economics.

A legacy lost

The final Part IV attends Schumpeter’s legacy. To begin with, this chapter examines how his monetary ideas got left behind during his lifetime and the subsequent decades. First, it addresses the success of Keynes. While his Treatise on Money had pre-empted the field by advocating some very similar ideas, the General Theory was even more detrimental to Schumpeter, precisely because Keynes had abandoned many of the very elements they had previously held in common. Next the chapter turns to the Neo-Keynesian synthesis, which attracted many of Schumpeter’s disciples at Harvard such as Paul Samuelson or James Tobin. After a brief discussion of monetarism, the attention finally turns to the evolution of modern general equilibrium models, beginning with its origin in the Real Business Cycle analysis and moving on to the New Keynesian DSGE models.

Business Cycles and Stabilization Policy

This chapter reviews the theory related to business cycles. After outlining early approaches (including the multiplier-accelerator interaction and Goodwin cycles), it proceeds to discuss the modern debates between New Classical/Real Business Cycle (RBC) theorists and New Keynesians. This discussion is structured at various levels: more intuitive and discursive, then more analytical with the development of a formal RBC model and of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model that synthesizes the two approaches. The chapter continues with a review of Vector Autoregressions. Finally, a narrative of a number of episodes is offered: the Great Depression, post-World War II cycles, Japan, effects of oil on business cycles, and the Great Recession (2007–9) and the subsequent slow recovery. The overarching philosophy is that a suite of models, old and new, and approaches, modelling, econometric, and narrative, are useful in offering complementary perspectives.

Welfare Cost of Model Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy

This paper extends the canonical small open-economy real-business-cycle model, when considering model uncertainty. Domestic households have multiplier preferences, which leads them to take robust decisions in response to possible model misspecification for the economy’s aggregate productivity. Using perturbation methods, the paper extends the literature on real business cycle models by deriving a closed-form solution for the combined welfare effect of the two sources of uncertainty, namely risk and model uncertainty. While classical risk has an ambiguous effect on welfare, the addition of model uncertainty is unambiguously welfare-deteriorating. Hence, the overall effect of uncertainty on welfare is ambiguous, depending on consumers preferences and model parameters. The paper provides numerical results for the welfare effects of uncertainty measured by units of consumption equivalence. At moderate (high) levels of risk aversion, the effect of risk on household welfare is positive (negative). The addition of model uncertainty—for all levels of concern about model uncertainty and most risk aversion values—turns the overall effect of uncertainty on household welfare negative. It is important to remark that the analytical decomposition and combination of the effects of the two types of uncertainty considered here and the resulting ambiguous effect on overall welfare have not been derived in the previous literature on small open economies.

NEW PERSPECTIVES ON HENRY LUDWELL MOORE’S USE OF HARMONIC ANALYSIS

This paper reconsiders the contribution of Henry Ludwell Moore to dynamic economics through the use of harmonic analysis. We show that Moore’s analysis is innovative in its use of the Fourier transformation for the identification of cycles with different periodicities. This enables Moore to identify cycles of longer length with more precision than would be the case for the standard methodology. We are able to replicate the main features of his results and confirm the existence of a rainfall cycle with a periodicity similar to that of the business cycle (eight years). However, we find that the evidence for a longer (thirty-three-year) rainfall cycle is weaker than Moore indicates. We also argue that a central theme of Moore’s analysis—the relationship among rainfall, agricultural productivity, and the business cycle—marks an early precursor of the “real business cycle” approach. George Stigler’s (1962) dismissal of Moore’s work on cycles as “a complete failure” is therefore, in our opinion, unfair. Instead, we argue that, although his work is certainly flawed, it nevertheless deserves a place in both the history of business cycle theory and empirical economics.