Devising Scenarios for Future Repository Evolution: A Rigorous Methodology

1994 ◽  
Vol 353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil A. Chapman ◽  
Johan Andersson ◽  
Peter Robinson ◽  
Kristina Skagius ◽  
Clas-Otto Wene ◽  
...  

AbstractThe Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate is developing a new methodology for the construction of scenarios for radiological consequence analysis as part of its SITE-94 performance assessment project. SITE-94 involves the incorporation of site specific data from the Äspö site into a performance assessment (PA) of a hypothetical high-level waste repository. This paper describes a systems analysis approach that has been developed based on the concept of organising all the events and processes which need to be taken account of in PA into a ‘process system’ and a much smaller residual group which are used to generate scenarios. The methodology used for developing scenarios, producing calculation cases and addressing the various types of uncertainty involved in PA consequence analysis is described.

1988 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan L. Marivoet ◽  
Geert Volckaert ◽  
Arnold A. Bonne

ABSTRACTPerformance assessment studies have been undertaken on the geological disposal of high-level waste in a clay layer in the framework of the CEC project PAGIS. The methodology applied consists of two consecutive steps : a scenario and a consequence analysis. The scenario analysis has indicated that scenarios of normal evolution, of human intrusion, of climatic change, of secondary glaciation effects and of faulting should be evaluated. For the consequence analysis as well deterministic “best estimate” as stochastic calculations, including uncertainty, risk and sensitivity analyses, have been elaborated.The calculations performed show that most radionuclides decay to negligible levels within the first fewjneters of the clay barrier. Just a few radionuclides, 99Tc, 135Cs and 237Np with its daughter nuclides 233U and 229Th can eventually reach the biosphere. The maximum dose rates arising from the geological disposal of HLW, as evaluated by the “best-estimate” approach are about 10−11 Sv/y for river pathways. If the sinking of a water well into the 150 m deep aquifer layer in the vicinity of the repository is considered together with a climatic change, the maximum calculated dose rate rises to a value of 3×10−7 Sv/y. The maximum dose rates evaluated by stochastic calculations are about one order of magnitude higher due to the considerable uncertainties in the model parameters. In the case of the Boom clay the estimated consequences of a fault scenario are of the same order of magnitude as the results obtained for the normal evolution scenario. The maximum risk is estimated from the results obtained through stochastic calculations to be about 5×10−8 per year. The sensitivity analysis has shown that the effective thickness of the clay layer, the retention factors of Tc, Cs and Np, and the Darcy velocity in the aquifer are parameters which strongly influence the calculated dose rates.


2001 ◽  
Vol 298 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 125-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Mallants ◽  
Jan Marivoet ◽  
Xavier Sillen

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Kristofferson ◽  
T.P. Oholleran ◽  
R.H. Powell

1986 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. M. Oversby

AbstractPerformance assessment calculations are required for high level waste repositories for a period of 10,000 years under NRC and EPA regulations. In addition, the Siting Guidelines (IOCFR960) require a comparison of sites following site characterization and prior to final site selection to be made over a 100,000 year period. In order to perform the required calculations, a detailed knowledge of the physical and chemical processes that affect waste form performance will be needed for each site. While bounding calculations might be sufficient to show compliance with the requirements of IOCFR60 and 40CFRI91, the site comparison for 100,000 years will need to be based on expected performance under site specific conditions. The only case where detailed knowledge of waste form characteristics in the repository would not be needed would be where radionuclide travel times to the accessible environment can be shown to exceed 100,000 years. This paper will review the factors that affect the release of radionuclides from spemt fuel under repository conditions, summarize our present state of knowledge, and suggest areas where more work is needed in order to support the performance assessment calculations.


Author(s):  
Bernhard Kienzler ◽  
Peter Vejmelka ◽  
Volker Metz

Abstract The amount of mobile radionuclides is controlled by the geochemical isolation potential of the repository. Many investigations are available in order to determine the maximal radionuclide concentrations released from different waste forms of specific disposal strategies for disposal in rock salt formations. These investigations result in reaction (dissolution) rates, maximum concentrations, and sorption coefficients. The experimental data have to be applied to various disposal strategies. The case studies presented in this communication cover the selection, the volumes, and the composition of backfill materials used as sorbents for radionuclides. As an example, for brown coal fly ash (BFA) - Q-brine systems, sorption coefficients were measured as well as solublilities of several actinides and other long-lived radionuclides. Dissolved CO32− was buffered to negligible concentration by the presence of high amount of Mg in solution. In the sorption experiments Pu, Th, Np, and U concentrations close or below detection limit were obtained. Concentrations in the same ranges are computed by means of geochemical modeling, if precipitation of “simple” tetravalent hydroxides (An(OH)4(am) phases) is assumed. In the case of U in a Portland cement dominated geochemical environment, measured U(VI) concentration corresponds to the solubility of hexavalent solids, such as Na2U2O7. A similar behavior of U was observed in high-level waste glass experiments. Experiments investigating sorption behavior of corroded cement showed that in the case of application of a sufficient large inventory of actinides, measured concentrations were found to be independent of the inventory. In this case, measured concentrations were controlled by solid phases. If smaller actinide inventories were applied, resulting concentrations were found to be below concentrations constrained by well-known solids. Here, a more or less pronounced sorption of the radioactive elements was observed. The radionuclide concentrations determined in the BFA “sorption” experiments are found to be close to the detection limits. For this reason, it is not possible to extrapolate the radionuclide behavior to lower concentrations. We cannot distinguish, if sorption or precipitation controls measured radionuclide concentrations. However, in the presence of reducing materials such as BFA, solubilities of tetravalent actinides and of Tc(IV) represent a realistic estimation of the maximal element concentrations needed in performance assessment studies. The concentrations of these redox sensitive elements are controlled by precipitation of An(OH)4(am) phases for disposal concepts considered in German salt formations. Under this assumption, quantities such as solid-solution ratios used in (sorption) experiments do not affect the mobilization of the radionuclides. Additional conclusions can be drawn from comparison of the findings for the redox sensitive elements in the BFA / portland cement brine systems: We can assume that expected actinide and technetium concentrations in the near-field of radioactive wastes are affected by the total inventory of radionuclides in the disposal room. Sorption will be relevant, if the total dissolved radionuclide concentration remains below the maximal solubility defined by the solid radionuclide phase which is stable in the geochemical environment. In contrast to the portland cement system, the relevant radionuclide phase are most probably tetravalent hydroxides in the BFA systems. These conclusions are of high importance to performance assessment for the radioactive waste repository systems, because they restrict the applicability of sorption models in the near field of the waste.


Author(s):  
Andre´ Voßnacke ◽  
Wilhelm Graf ◽  
Roland Hu¨ggenberg ◽  
Astrid Gisbertz

The revised German Atomic Act together with the Agreement between the German Government and the German Utilities of June 11, 2001 form new boundary conditions that considerably influence spent fuel strategies by stipulation of lifetime limitations to nuclear power plants and termination of reprocessing. The contractually agreed return of reprocessing residues comprises some 156 casks containing vitrified highly active waste, the so-called HAW or glass canisters, coming form irradiated nuclear fuel assemblies to be shipped from COGEMA, France and BNFL, UK to Germany presumably until 2011. Several hundred casks with compacted residues and other waste will follow. The transports are scheduled presumably beyond 2020. The central interim storage facilities in Ahaus and Gorleben, formerly intended to accumulate up to 8,000 t of heavy metal (HM) of spent fuel from German nuclear power plants, offer sufficient capacity to receive the totality of residues to be returned from reprocessing abroad. GNB has developed, tested, licensed, fabricated, loaded, transported and stored a large number of casks for spent fuel and is one of the world leaders for delivering spent fuel and high level waste casks. Long-term intermediate storage of spent fuel is carried out under dry conditions using these casks that are licensed for transport as well as for storage. Standardized high performance casks such as the types CASTOR® HAW 20/28 CG, CASTOR® V/19 and CASTOR® V/52 meet the needs of most nuclear power plants in Germany. Up to now GNS has co-ordinated the loading and transport of 27 casks loaded with 28 canisters each from COGEMA back to Germany for storage in Gorleben for up to 40 years. In all but one case the cask type CASTOR® HAW 20/28 CG has been used.


Estimates are given of the total quantities of radioactivity, and of the contribution from different isotopes to this total, arising in the wastes from civil nuclear power generation; the figures are normalized to 1 GW (e) y of power production. The intensity of the heat and y-radiation emitted by the spent fuel has been calculated, and their decrease as the radioactivity decays. Reprocessing the spent fuel results in 95% or more of the fission products and higher actinides being concentrated in a small volume of high-level, heat-emitting waste. The total decay curve of unreprocessed spent fuel or of the separated high-level waste is dominated by the decay of some fission products for a few hundred years and then by the decay of some actinide isotopes for some tens of thousands of years. The residual activity is compared with that of the original uranium ore. Some of the long-lived activity will appear in other waste streams, particularly on the fuel cladding, and the volumes and activities of these wastes arising in this country are recorded. The long-lived activity arising from reactor decommissioning will be small compared with the annual arisings from the fuel cycle.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document