scholarly journals The impact of agriculture trade and exchange rate on economic growth of Pakistan: an NARDL and asymmetric analysis approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imad Ali ◽  
Imran Khan ◽  
Hashmat Ali ◽  
Khan Baz ◽  
Qiangqiang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Maximum Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT: This study contributes to the extant literature on the nexus among agriculture export, import exchange rate and economic growth in Pakistan. We used annual time series data for 1980-2017 and employ the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The NARDL testing results affirms asymmetric co-integration among the variables. The study main results show: (i) Co-integration test for long run the positive shocks in export and import have positive significant while exchange rate has positive effect the economic growth. (ii) Co-integration test for short run the positive shocks in import has positive significant and while Export and exchange rate have negative significant effect on economic growth. The symmetrical results show: (i) Export has unidirectional granger causality (ii) Exchange rate has bidirectional granger causality (iii) Import has not ganger causality with economic growth. In addition, the results demonstrated that causality relationship can help out policy maker to design such policies which are useful to economic growth of Pakistan, which could further promote foreign trade to gain the maximum level of economic growth.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of Human Capital Underutilization on the Productivity and Economic Growth in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya Kumar M ◽  
Balu B
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Labor Organization ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

Abstract This study investigated the effect of human capital underutilization on productivity and economic growth. It has used time-series data accessed from the International Labor Organization (ILO) and World Bank database. This paper estimated the relationship between the underutilization of human capital on productivity and economic growth by applying the econometric tests like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, Johansen Integration Test, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results revealed that in the long run human capital underutilization has a negative relationship on GDP and labor productivity and it does not in the short run. The study recommends that specific policy legislations in the Indian labor markets are required for addressing the problem of human capital underutilization and thereby accelerating the economic growth and productivity for the current and future generations.

scholarly journals Co-Integration Approach to Analysing The Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-128
Author(s):  
Biradawa Kayadi ◽  
Confidence Chinwe Opara ◽  
Christy Twaliwi Zwingina ◽  
Udeme Okon Efanga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Ogbonna Ogbonna ◽  
Ihemeje Ihemeje ◽  
Obioma Obioma ◽  
Hanson Hanson ◽  
Amadi Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Domestic Investment and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: A Post Recession View

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Onochie, Stanley Nwabuisi ◽  
Ozegbe, Azuka Elvis ◽  
Nwani, Stanley Emife
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of domestic investment on economic growth in Nigeria, using annual secondary time series data spanning 37 years from 1981 to 2017 extracted from the CBN statistical bulletin. Real GDP was used to proxy economic growth, while the key explanatory variable is domestic investment with other control variables as capital expenditure, oil export earnings, exchange rate and inflation rate. The study embarked on pre-estimation test such as unit root test and the bounds co-integration test which informed our methodological choice of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The short run and long run estimates show that domestic investment has positive but insignificant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This finding departs from those of previous writers due to the improved analytical framework employed in this study. On the basis of our findings, the study recommends a compulsory individual and national savings to boost the level of domestic investment in the country so as to achieve the much desired economic growth and development.

scholarly journals Impact of Domestic Public Debt on Economic Growth - An Empirical Study in the Indian Context

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 101-116
Author(s):  
Srinivasa Rao Gangadharan ◽  
Lakshmi Padmakumari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Ordinary Least Square Regression ◽  
The Impact

This study is an empirical investigation to assess the impact of domestic debt on India’s Economic growth during the period 1980 – 2014. We use data on Domestic Debt, Net Fiscal Deficit, Exports, Savings, Real Gross Domestic Product, Population and Terms of Trade. This study adopts the ARDL Co-Integration and Granger Causality techniques to investigate the relation between the key variables. The study also employs various post estimation tests to validate the fitness and stability of the models based on Gauss Markov assumptions, after employing the ordinary least square regression on various models. We find that debt negatively impacts economic growth while savings has a positive impact. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique used to test the robustness suggests existence of co-integration among the variables. However, none of the long run co-efficient is significant. The granger causality and co-integration test results support the traditional view that debt negatively impacts economic growth.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-40
Author(s):  
Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

scholarly journals Impact of Economic Reforms, FDI and Imports on GDP: Trends and Regression Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
Preeti Sharma ◽  
Priyanka Sahni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the exports, imports and economic growth of Chinese economy using time series data running from 1978 to 2016.Co integration, Granger Causality analysis and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) has been used in order to test the hypotheses about the presence of causality and co integration among the variables. The co integration test confirmed that exports, imports and GDP are co integrated, indicating an existence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables and also confirmed by the Johansen co integration test results. The Granger causality test finally confirmed the presence of bi-directional causality between exports, imports and GDP. The study further shows that relative share of china’s exports in world exports has increased significantly after the introduction of economic reforms. Further, the rising exports have also made a significant contribution to the economic growth of Chinese economy due to forward and backward linkages.

scholarly journals External Sector Aggregates and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
Akidi, Victor ◽  
Tubotamuno, Boma ◽  
Obayori, Joseph Bidemi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
External Sector

This paper empirically examined the effects of selected external sector aggregates on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2016. Time series data on Real Gross Domestic Product as proxy for economic growth, and on Imports, Exports, Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment were collected from secondary sources. The data sets were analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test, co-integration test and error correction technique of model estimation. The result of the analysis revealed that Imports, Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment negatively related with economic growth while Exports positively related with economic growth in Nigeria within the reviewed period. Also, except Exchange Rate all the other explanatory variables – Imports, Exports and Foreign Direct Investment did not impact significantly on economic growth in Nigeria within the period of study. Based on these findings, the study recommends that government should encourage export diversification, especially the non-oil sector exports. This can be achieved through value addition in both the agriculture and manufacturing sub-sectors output.

scholarly journals Impact of Human Capital Underutilization on Economic Growth: the Case of India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya Kumar M ◽  
Balu B
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Labor Organization ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Adf Test

Abstract This study investigated the effect of human capital underutilization on the economic growth of India. It has used time-series data accessed from the International Labor Organization (ILO) and World Bank database. This paper estimated the relationship between the underutilization of human capital on economic growth by applying the econometric tests like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, Johansen Integration Test, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results revealed that in the long run human capital underutilization has a negative relationship on GDP and labor productivity and it does not in the short run. The study recommends that specific policy legislations in the Indian labor markets are required for addressing the problem of human capital underutilization and thereby accelerating the economic growth and productivity for the current and future generations.

Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in Vietnam: An Empirical Analysis

2018 ◽  
pp. 32-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dat Tho Tran ◽  
Van Thi Cam Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at investigating the impact of globalization on economic growth in the case of Vietnam. Empirical analysis is done by using time series data for the period from 1995 to 2014. The paper tested the stationary cointegration of time series data and utilized the error correction modeling technique to determine the short run relationships among economic growth, globalization, foreign direct investment, balance of trade and exchange rate variables. Then, the long run relationship between economic growth and the variables representing economic integration were estimated by ordinary least square. The results show that globalization, measured by the KOF index, promotes economic growth and Vietnam has gained from integrating into the global economy. The overall index of globalization had positively and significantly impacted the economic growth in Vietnam. The results also indicated that economic globalization had a significantly positive effect on economic growth in the period examined. The study further revealed that foreign direct investment and the exchange rate affect economic growth positively whereas balance of trade affects economic growth negatively.

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