External Sector and The Nigerian Manufacturing Sector Performance, 1981-2019

No country is an island. The globalization phenomenon is making all countries to be interdependent. The external sector environment has become critical for the success of every country and internal balance. Thus, it has become important to examine how much the externa sector environment impact on the performance of the domestic economy. The present study, therefore, examined the influence of Nigerian external sector environment on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector between 1981 and 2019. The study adopted exp-post research design approach and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation techniques. The empirical model consists of the Nigerian manufacturing sector output index as the dependent variable and exchange rate, trade openness, and foreign direct investment as independent variables and external sector environment variables. Test of unit root results indicated that the variables have mix order of integration, while the co integration analysis results indicated that the variables in the model have stable long run relationship. Estimate of the ARDL model reveals that in the short run exchange rate variations have negative, but significant effect on manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness, and FDI have positive but insignificant influence on the manufacturing sector performance in the short run. In the long run, exchange rate level and FDI inflows have positive and significant effect on the manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness has negative and significant effect on the Nigerian manufacturing sector performance. The study therefore conclude that the Nigerian external sector Environment has significant influence on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector.

A Comparative Study of Indias Foreign Trade in Pre and Post Reform Era

Foreign trade has been playing a vital role in the economic progress and prosperity of every country.In modern days foreign trade has assumed an immense prominence and substance for economic development of a country because of interdependence of economies, increasing specialization and joining regional cooperation. In 1991, the major program of economic reform were introduced which emphasize on external sector wherein the protective tariffs were decreased, changes into foreigninvestment and the restrictive import licensing system was relaxed and simplified. After the New economic reforms, India’s foreign trade has undergone substantial changes, volume of trade rose up and composition of trade was also frequently changed. The main objective of the paper is to study the trends of India’s foreign trade pre and post new economic reforms in India. The entire data for the present study is collected from the secondary sources. The collected data has been analyzed by using Paired t-test from SPSS software package and graphs. The findings of this paper said that there is positive relationship between economic reforms and India’s foreign trade. A push has been given to theexports but analyzes says that the increasing rate of imports is higher in comparison to the increasing rate of exports. Keywords: Foreign Trade, New Economic Reforms, Exports, Imports, Growth Rate.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the US Economy: The Multiplier Effects of Tourism

This article explores the multiplier effects on domestic product, employment, and the external sector of the US economy due to the decline of tourism activities during the pandemic. For this purpose, we use an input-output model and the latest available input-output data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD’s) database. It was found that for every USD million decrease in tourism receipts, the net output decreases about USD 1.53 million, the level of employment decreases about 16.86 persons, imports decrease about USD 0.20 million, while the comparative analysis of these results with the economy’s average multipliers indicates that tourism constitutes a key sector of the US economy. From the evaluation of the results, it is deduced that the decline of tourism activities recorded in the year 2020 accounts for about one-fourth of the observed recession in the US economy.

Modeling of financial support for the development of critical infrastructure objects

Topical issues of analysis and modelling of financial support for development of critical infrastructure objects are considered. The processes of reproduction of the national economy are considered within the framework of the matrix of financial flows (matrix of social accounts), which integrally describes the relationship between the markets and the institutional structure of the economy, makes it possible to allocate individual processes and conduct their analysis for criticality (profitability). The toolkit of these matrixes is taken as a basis for assessing the reproduction processes and identifying their criticality.To this end, a matrix of financial flows has been prepared, which has a block structure (goods and services, production and formation of income, financial flows, budgets of institutional sectors, gross investments, external sector), and generally includes 21 accounts, determining the reproduction processes under the scheme “GDP by income categories – net savings of institutional sectors”. The criticality of economic infrastructure is proposed to be assessed as the share of reproducing (gross, net) income in the structure of GDP, as the volatility of these incomes to GDP. Modelling of financial support for the development of critical infrastructure objects consists in the formation of internal conditions of economic growth – in ensuring the subjectivity of economic agents and the growth of national savings. Measures to improve the parameters of criticality in the processes of reproduction of economic infrastructure have been proposed. Methodological and informational sources of research were methodological provisions on national accounting and statistical materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

THE NEXUS BETWEEN THEEXTERNAL SECTOR AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA, 1985 -2018

The interaction between different economies in the global market could have impact on their key economic variables. Hence, this study set out to examine the impact of the external sector on a key economic variable in Nigeria being Inflation. The study utilized time series data from 1985 to 2018 which was subjected to Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The next step was to subject the data to an ARDL cointegration test. The result showed that in the short run and long run external sector variables do not have any significant impact on inflation in Nigeria. The paper suggests that money supply and fiscal policy should be used to control inflation in Nigeria.

The external sector shocks and macroeconomics in Nigeria

The study examines the relationship between some key macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria and the external sector. During the period under review, it was discovered that crude oil had a lion’s share of Nigeria’s export earnings and the international demand for the country’s non-oil exports was unimpressive due to the development of synthetic alternatives, discriminative tariffs and new entrants in the global market (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2008). Consequently, most of the research on this topic hinged their framework on shocks from the oil sector (see Lukman and Olomola, 2016). In contemporary times, however, the contribution of crude oil to Nigeria’s gross domestic product has been dwindling. As at 2019, the entire oil and gas industry contributed less than 10% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), 2019). There was the need to examine the external sector from a more comprehensive approach and framework. Therefore, this study evaluated the impact of shocks from Nigeria’s terms of trade and major foreign stock market index on macroeconomics in Nigeria. The methodology adopted for this study is the vector autoregressive technique, impulse response function and the error variance decomposition method. The findings show that the gross domestic product, price level and interest rate respond strongly in the short run (1-2 years), gradually fluctuates in the medium term (3-5 years) and become stable in the long run (6-10 years) due to shocks from the Dow Jones index and Nigeria’s terms of trade. Thus, intervention policies should focus on mitigating the impact of external sector shocks on macroeconomics in the short and medium terms when the impact is enormous.

Current Account Determinants in Jordan: An ARDL Approach

As one of the major indicators of assessing the external sector performance of any country, this paper empirically investigates the determinants of current account for Jordan. To this end, I rely on the estimation of a time series Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period 1994-2020. Consistent with the literature, I show that the fiscal deficit, trade openness, oil prices and the reserve changes are key determinants of the current account of Jordan. The relationships exposed in this paper complement the empirical literature by providing new evidence from a developing country like Jordan.

Direction of Foreign Trade of Nepal

It is foreign trade that deals with the transaction of goods, including services, financial flows, and the movement of factors of production, like labor, capital, and entrepreneurship. The objective of the 15th plan for Nepal is to reduce the trade deficit by increasing production, managing imports, and diversifying trade on a country-wise and a goods-wise basis for export promotion and to maintain foreign exchange stability, external sector stability, and a targeted foreign exchange reserve. The purpose of this research is to assess the direction of Nepalese foreign trade. The author has not found the updated research work of the type. This is a descriptive study that uses secondary data. The analysis relies on simple mathematical tools such as ratios and percentages. The data clearly expresses a huge trade deficit. The rapidly increasing trade imbalance indicates that foreign trade policy needs to be evaluated and improved. In 2019/20, foreign trade in Nepal was adversely affected as compared to previous study years. Nepal's major trade partner is India in terms of imports, exports, trade balance, and total trade. In 2019/20, India's share of total exports stood at 71.8 percent, which was 64.6 percent last year. In total imports, India's share remained at 61.4 percent, as compared to 64.7 percent last year. The findings help the government of Nepal, researchers, practitioners, and learners to know the existing direction of foreign trade of Nepal.