scholarly journals Co-Integration Approach to Analysing The Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-128
Author(s):  
Biradawa Kayadi ◽  
Confidence Chinwe Opara ◽  
Christy Twaliwi Zwingina ◽  
Udeme Okon Efanga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Ogbonna Ogbonna ◽  
Ihemeje Ihemeje ◽  
Obioma Obioma ◽  
Hanson Hanson ◽  
Amadi Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of External Borrowing on the Economic Growth of the Developing Countries - Nigerian Experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeboye Akanni Akinwunmi ◽  
Rosemary Bukola Adekoya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of foreign borrowing on the economic growth of the developing nations using Nigeria as a case study. Time series data from 1985 and 2015 were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and other related journals. Data sourced were analyzed using Durbin Watson auto correlation to test for the reliability of the data and diagnostic tests such as unit root test (Augmented Dickey Fuller) and Johansen co-integration to test for the non-stationary of the data and long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. OLS multiple regressions were used as estimation technique to test for the relationship between the explanatory variables and economic growth. The study revealed that there is significant relationship between economic growth, exports, capital investment and debt service payment but external debt and exchange rate have a significant inverse relationship with economic growth. The study concludes that, capital investment, exports and debt service payment have impact on economic growth but external debt and exchange rate do not. Therefore, the study recommends that, purpose of borrowing should be considered important while channeling the borrowed funds and efficient utilization of the funds to solve the purpose by which it was acquired will go a long way to impact growth on the economy of the country.

scholarly journals External Debt and Economic Growth of Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Sajuyigbe, Ademola ◽  
A. Odetayo, Tajudeen ◽  
Z. Adeyemi, Adewumi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The study investigates the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1999-2015. The data for this study was obtained mainly from secondary sources mainly from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins and Debt Management Office. Time series data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Economic Growth, External Debt Stock (EXDS), External Debt Service Payment (EDSP), and Exchange Rate (EXGR) were used for the analysis. The techniques of Estimation employed in the study include Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Mechanism and Granger Causality Test. Results show that external debt has an inverse effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Subsequently, the study recommends that government should empower Debt Management Office to set the mechanism in place, ensure that loans are utilised for purposes they are meant for and prosecute corrupt public officers who siphoned the money.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Public Borrowing and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 243-248
Author(s):  
Ayodele Thomas Duro ◽  
Williams Harley Tega ◽  
Afolabi Taofeek Sola ◽  
Adeyanju David Olanrewaju
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

This study seeks to evaluate the impact of public borrowing on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 to 2018. Specifically, the study seeks to analyze the effect of domestic debt (proxy by Federal Government Bonds-FGB) and external debt (proxy by International Monetary Fund Loan-IMFL) on Nigerian’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To achieve this objective, secondary data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulleting and the Debt Management Office of Nigeria. A multiple regression model involving the dependent variable (GDP) and the independent variables (FGB and IMFL) was formulated and subjected to econometric analysis. These variables were adjusted with the Jarque-bera test of normality while the correlation result was used to check the possibility of multi-collinearity among the variables. The t-test was used to answer the research questions and test the formulated hypotheses at the 5percent statistical level. Results from the analysis show that a positive relationship exists between IMF Loan and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, while a negative relationship exists between FG Bonds and Nigeria’s gross domestic product, which violates the Keynesian theory of public debt. The study concludes that both domestic and external debt significantly affect economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, it was recommended that public borrowing should be efficiently used and contracted solely for economic reasons and not for social or political reasons as this will help to avoid accumulation of debt stock over time.

scholarly journals The impact of agriculture trade and exchange rate on economic growth of Pakistan: an NARDL and asymmetric analysis approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imad Ali ◽  
Imran Khan ◽  
Hashmat Ali ◽  
Khan Baz ◽  
Qiangqiang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Maximum Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT: This study contributes to the extant literature on the nexus among agriculture export, import exchange rate and economic growth in Pakistan. We used annual time series data for 1980-2017 and employ the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The NARDL testing results affirms asymmetric co-integration among the variables. The study main results show: (i) Co-integration test for long run the positive shocks in export and import have positive significant while exchange rate has positive effect the economic growth. (ii) Co-integration test for short run the positive shocks in import has positive significant and while Export and exchange rate have negative significant effect on economic growth. The symmetrical results show: (i) Export has unidirectional granger causality (ii) Exchange rate has bidirectional granger causality (iii) Import has not ganger causality with economic growth. In addition, the results demonstrated that causality relationship can help out policy maker to design such policies which are useful to economic growth of Pakistan, which could further promote foreign trade to gain the maximum level of economic growth.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-40
Author(s):  
Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

scholarly journals Impact of Macro-Economic Variable on Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faisal Hassan ◽  
Hashim Bin Jusoh ◽  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Fahad Ali Khan ◽  
Muhammad Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The researcher investigates the Impact of inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on Pakistan stock Exchange performance KSE-100 index by using monthly time series data which covers the period of 2013 to 2020. The econometrics techniques which are employed includes ADF test, Ordinary Least squares regression Model, testing for Multi-collinearity, Residual analysis serial correlation, testing for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM), variance decomposition (VAR) and Pair wise granger causality test. The results indicate that there is positive impact of exchange rate on PSX 100 index and the impact of inflation and interest rate is fond negative but inflation have insignificant relationship with PSX 100 index and the other two relationships are found significant. From the ECM result it is found that in short run 20% of the variation in dependent variable is due to inflation, exchange rate and interest rate and 80% variation is unexplained in short run. Form the results of VAR test it is concluded that exchange rate 1.67, inflation 14.25%, and interest rate 3.90% variation cause in PSX 100 index performance due to these three independent variables.

scholarly journals External Sector Aggregates and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
Akidi, Victor ◽  
Tubotamuno, Boma ◽  
Obayori, Joseph Bidemi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
External Sector

This paper empirically examined the effects of selected external sector aggregates on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2016. Time series data on Real Gross Domestic Product as proxy for economic growth, and on Imports, Exports, Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment were collected from secondary sources. The data sets were analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test, co-integration test and error correction technique of model estimation. The result of the analysis revealed that Imports, Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment negatively related with economic growth while Exports positively related with economic growth in Nigeria within the reviewed period. Also, except Exchange Rate all the other explanatory variables – Imports, Exports and Foreign Direct Investment did not impact significantly on economic growth in Nigeria within the period of study. Based on these findings, the study recommends that government should encourage export diversification, especially the non-oil sector exports. This can be achieved through value addition in both the agriculture and manufacturing sub-sectors output.

Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in Vietnam: An Empirical Analysis

2018 ◽  
pp. 32-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dat Tho Tran ◽  
Van Thi Cam Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at investigating the impact of globalization on economic growth in the case of Vietnam. Empirical analysis is done by using time series data for the period from 1995 to 2014. The paper tested the stationary cointegration of time series data and utilized the error correction modeling technique to determine the short run relationships among economic growth, globalization, foreign direct investment, balance of trade and exchange rate variables. Then, the long run relationship between economic growth and the variables representing economic integration were estimated by ordinary least square. The results show that globalization, measured by the KOF index, promotes economic growth and Vietnam has gained from integrating into the global economy. The overall index of globalization had positively and significantly impacted the economic growth in Vietnam. The results also indicated that economic globalization had a significantly positive effect on economic growth in the period examined. The study further revealed that foreign direct investment and the exchange rate affect economic growth positively whereas balance of trade affects economic growth negatively.

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