scholarly journals VISUALIZING UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTED HURRICANE TRACKS

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Cox ◽  
Donald House ◽  
Michael Lindell
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Tracks

scholarly journals Monitoring and prediction of hurricane tracks using GPS tropospheric products

GPS Solutions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohannes Getachew Ejigu ◽  
Felix Norman Teferle ◽  
Anna Klos ◽  
Bogusz Janusz ◽  
Addisu Hunegnaw
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Satellite Mission ◽  
Additional Resource ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distributions ◽  
Zenith Wet Delay ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Hurricane Tracks

AbstractWe have reconstructed integrated water vapor (IWV) using the zenith wet delays to track the properties of hurricanes and explore their spatial and temporal distributions estimated from 922 GPS stations. Our results show that a surge in GPS-derived IWV occurred at least six hours prior to the landfall of two major hurricanes (Harvey and Irma) that struck the Gulf and East Coasts of the USA in 2017. We observed enhanced IWV, in particular, for the two hurricanes landfall locations. The observed variations exhibit a correlation with the precipitation value constructed from GPM/IMERG satellite mission coinciding with hurricane storm front passage. We used GPS-IWV data as inputs for spaghetti line plots for our path predictions, helping us predict the paths of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Hence, a directly estimable zenith wet delay sourced from GPS that has not been previously reported can serve as an additional resource for improving the monitoring of hurricane paths.

scholarly journals Correction to: Monitoring and prediction of hurricane tracks using GPS tropospheric products

GPS Solutions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohannes Getachew Ejigu ◽  
Felix Norman Teferle ◽  
Anna Klos ◽  
Janusz Bogusz ◽  
Addisu Hunegnaw
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Tracks

scholarly journals Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 5370-5381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lian Xie ◽  
Tingzhuang Yan ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Thomas Karl
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Hurricane Tracks

Abstract The spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks and its possible association with the annual hurricane landfall frequency along the U.S. East Coast are studied using principal component analysis (PCA) of hurricane track density function (HTDF). The results show that, in addition to the well-documented effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vertical wind shear (VWS), North Atlantic HTDF is strongly modulated by the dipole mode (DM) of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Specifically, it was found that Atlantic SST DM is the only index that is associated with all top three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the Atlantic HTDF. ENSO and tropical Atlantic VWS are significantly correlated with the first and the third EOF of the HTDF over the North Atlantic Ocean. The second EOF of North Atlantic HTDF, which represents the “zonal gradient” of North Atlantic hurricane track density, showed no significant correlation with ENSO or with tropical Atlantic VWS. Instead, it is associated with the Atlantic SST DM, and extratropical processes including NAO and AO. Since for a given hurricane season, the preferred hurricane track pattern, together with the overall basinwide hurricane activity, collectively determines the hurricane landfall frequency, the results provide a foundation for the construction of a statistical model that projects the annual number of hurricanes striking the eastern seaboard of the United States.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Hurricane-Track Forecasts in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Senkbeil ◽  
Jacob Reed ◽  
Jennifer Collins ◽  
Kimberly Brothers ◽  
Michelle Saunders ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Home Location ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
Hurricane Tracks ◽  
Hurricane Irma

AbstractHurricanes Isaac (2012), Harvey (2017), and Irma (2017) were storms with different geophysical characteristics and track forecast consistencies. Despite the differences, common themes emerged from the perception of track forecasts from evacuees for each storm. Surveys with a mixture of closed and open-ended responses were conducted during the evacuations of each storm while the storm characteristics and decision-making were fresh in the minds of evacuees. Track perception accuracy for each evacuee was quantified by taking the difference between three metrics: perceived track and official track (PT − OT), perceived track and forecast track (PT − FT), and home location and perceived track (HL − PT). Evacuees from Hurricanes Isaac and Harvey displayed a tendency to perceive hurricane tracks as being closer to their home locations than what was forecast to occur and what actually occurred. The large sample collected for Hurricane Irma provided a chance to statistically verify some of the hypotheses generated from Isaac and Harvey. Results from Hurricane Irma confirmed that evacuees expected a storm to be closer to their home locations after controlling for regional influences. Furthermore, participants with greater previous hurricane experience perceived a track as being closer to their home locations, and participants residing in zip codes corresponding with nonmandatory evacuation zones also perceived tracks as being closer to their home locations. These findings suggest that most evacuees from hurricanes in the United States appear to perceive storms as being closer to their home locations than they are and overestimate wind speeds at their homes, thus overestimating the true danger from landfalling hurricanes in many storms.

Visual Representations of the Spatial Relationship Between Bermuda High Strengths and Hurricane Tracks

2007 ◽  
pp. 37-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason T. Knowles ◽  
Michael Leitner
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Spatial Relationship ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Vast Number ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Hurricane Tracks ◽  
Point Coverage

The 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons dramatically demonstrated the magnitude of the societal significance of hurricanes, negatively impacting on all scales from the personal to the national. Although definitive identification of the forcing mechanisms controlling hurricane tracks and landfall patterns remains elusive, increasing evidence supports the hypothesis that the increase in hurricane activity along the Gulf Coast is due to a southwestward shift in the position of the Bermuda High. This research uses multiple visualization techniques to explore the spatial correlation between Bermuda High strengths - as interpreted from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index - and hurricane tracks. Using hurricane vector data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) Hurricane Data set (HURRDAT) and NAO index data since 1947, the hypothesized spatial relationships were investigated. Due to the vast number of storm track segments (more than 17,000), displaying all segments in the same map failed to reveal any coherent spatial pattern. For this reason, storm track segments were converted into a point coverage, each point representing the mid-point of an original storm segment. Other visualization methods were applied to this new point coverage, including choropleth mapping and continuous 2-D and enhanced 3-D surface displays. The latter two methods were novel approaches for the visualization of large numbers of hurricane tracks and can be applied to any large data sets consisting of linear features. Results visually support a spatial relationship between hurricane tracks and Bermuda High strengths.

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