Resilience in agroecosystems: an index based on a socioecological systems approach

This article presents an agroecosystem resilience index (ARI) relative to two types of exogenous drivers: biophysical and socioeconomic threats. The ARI is based on a theoretical framework of socioecological systems and draws upon multicriteria analysis. The multicriteria consists of variables related to natural, productive, socioeconomic, and institutional systems that are weighted and grouped through expert judgment. The index was operationalized in the Rio Grande Basin (RGB), in the Colombian Andes. The ARI was evaluated at the household level using information from 99 RGB households obtained through workshops, individual semistructured interviews, and surveys. The ARI is a continuous variable that ranges between zero and one and results in five categories of resilience: very low, low, medium, high, and very high. When faced with climate change impacts, 19% of households showed low resilience, 64% medium resilience, and 16% high resilience according to the ARI. When faced with price fluctuations, 23% of households showed low resilience, 65% medium resilience, and 11% high resilience. Key variables associated with high resilience include the diversity of vegetation cover, households that have forests on their properties, a high degree of connectivity with other patches of forest, diversification of household economic activities, profitability of economic activities, availability of water sources, and good relationship with local institutions.

Fatal weather-related carbon monoxide poisonings in the United States

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless gas that can cause injury or death if inhaled. CO is a frequent secondary hazard induced by the aftereffects of natural hazards as individuals, families, and communities often seek alternative power sources for heating, cooking, lighting, and cleanup during the emergency and recovery phases of a disaster. These alternative power sources—such as portable generators, petroleum-based heaters, and vehicles—exhaust CO that can ultimately build to toxic levels in enclosed areas. Ever-increasing environmental and societal changes combined with an aging infrastructure are growing the odds of power failures during hazardous weather events, which, in turn, are increasing the likelihood of CO exposure, illness, and death. This study analyzed weather-related CO fatalities from 2000 to 2019 in the U.S. using death certificate data, providing one of the longest assessments of this mortality. Results reveal that over 8,300 CO fatalities occurred in the U.S. during the 20-year study period, with 17% of those deaths affiliated with weather perils. Cool-season perils such as ice storms, snowstorms, and extreme cold were the leading hazards that led to situations causing CO fatalities. States in the Southeast and Northeast had the highest CO fatality rates, with winter having the greatest seasonal mortality. In general, these preventable CO poisoning influxes are related to a deficiency of knowledge on generator safety and the absence of working detectors and alarms in the enclosed locations where poisonings occur. Education and prevention programs that target the most vulnerable populations will help prevent future weather-related CO fatalities.

The unpredictable truth: A proposed roadmap for a ‘reflect-then-act’ approach to climate uncertainties and lessons learned from Norwegian municipalities

Several papers have through the years criticized climate policy decision making for being naïve with respect to how they view climate model outputs as objective facts and use the outputs directly to program policies. From this and similar observations, many of the papers conclude that there is a need for shifting to a new approach on how climate policymakers may relate to climate change uncertainties. The article proposes such a shift by presenting a roadmap on how to address uncertainties in climate change adaptation. It consists of three major elements: Firstly, to accept that in many cases we will not be able to reduce climate change uncertainties. Secondly, to diversify the way in which we describe climate change uncertainties, moving from a one-dimensional technical perspective to a multi-dimensional perspective which applies uncertainties also to social and political processes and systems. Thirdly, to change the way we address climate change uncertainties by moving from a predict-then-act to a reflect-then-act approach, implying that we must adapt to climate change even under high and various forms of uncertainties. Embedded in this last point is to accept unlike that of climate change mitigation, the precautionary principle will apply in many situations of climate change adaptation. In the last part of the article the usability of the proposed roadmap is demonstrated post-ante on four Norwegian cases of climate related natural hazard events.

Co-producing Sea-Ice Predictions with Stakeholders Using Simulation

Forecasts of sea-ice evolution in the Arctic region for several months ahead can be of considerable socio-economic value for a diverse range of marine sectors and for local community supply logistics. However, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts represent a significant technical challenge, while translating user needs into scientifically manageable procedures and robust user confidence requires collaboration among a range of stakeholders. We developed and tested a novel, transdisciplinary co-production approach that combined socio-economic scenarios and participatory, research-driven simulation-gaming to test a new S2S sea-ice forecast system with experienced mariners in the cruise tourism sector. Our custom-developed computerized simulation-game ICEWISE integrated sea-ice parameters, forecast technology and human factors, as a participatory environment for stakeholder engagement. We explored the value of applications-relevant S2S sea-ice prediction and linked uncertainty information. Results suggest that the usefulness of S2S services is currently most evident in schedule-dependent sectors but expected to increase due to anticipated changes in the physical environment and continued growth in Arctic operations. Reliable communication of uncertainty information in sea-ice forecasts must be demonstrated and trialed before users gain confidence in emerging services and technologies. Mariners’ own intuition, experience, and familiarity with forecast service provider reputation impact the extent to which sea-ice information may reduce uncertainties and risks for Arctic mariners. Our insights into the performance of the combined foresight/simulation co-production model in brokering knowledge across a range of domains demonstrates promise. We conclude with an overview of the potential contributions from S2S sea-ice predictions and from experiential co-production models to the development of decision-driven and science-informed climate services.

Using social network analysis to assess climate change professionals’ communications in Iran

Increased cooperation of an interdisciplinary group of climate change professionals as a social network can play a crucial role in adaptation to climate change. To investigate this relationship at the country-scale, this study uses a case study in Iran in order to 1) measure the cooperative relationship among climate change professionals using the network analysis approach, and; 2) analyze the potential of the network in promoting adaptation measures based on sustainable development. Social network analysis, which is both a quantitative and qualitative method of grounded theory was used to analyze the data. Data collection was performed using two questionnaires including network analysis and a survey, as well as a number of semi-structured interviews with the climate change professionals. The data was collected from climate change professionals including a sample of 55 individuals who were surveyed as a complete network. The network relationship results have been analyzed using different tests at three (micro, macro and the interactions between the two) levels. The results have shown that the connectedness of the network is 23.7%, with 42.4% mutual links. The transitivity rate in the network is 51.39%, which determines the possibility of each professional communicating with a third party. According to the normalized degree index, 34.29% of the cases are in contact with other researchers in the network and 53.15% received a connection from others. Grounded theory analysis showed that five core categories including social capital, managerial factors, research, relations, and coordination affected the quality and utility of Iranian climate change professionals’ network.

Communicating Heat-Health Information to the Public: Assessing Municipal Government Extreme Heat Event Website Content

Extreme heat events pose a threat to human health. Forecasting and warning strategies have been developed to mitigate heat-health hazards. Yet, studies have found that the public lacks knowledge about their heat-health risks and preventive actions to take to reduce risks. Local governmental websites are an important means to communicate preparedness to the public. The purpose of this study is to examine information provided to the public on municipal government webpages of the 10 most populous U.S. cities. A two-level document and content analyses were conducted. A direct content analysis was conducted using federal government websites and documents to create the Extreme Heat Event Public Response Rubric. The Rubric contains two broad categories of populations and actions that are further specified. The Rubric was then used to examine local government extreme heat event websites for the 10 most populous cities in the U.S. The examination of the local government sites found that information included on the websites failed to identify the breadth of populations at greater risk for adverse heat-health outcomes and omitted some recommended actions designed to prevent adverse heat-health events. Local governments often communicated concrete and simple content to the public but more complex information was not included on their websites.

The influence of weather on fatal accidents in Austrian mountains

Projections of warmer global temperatures in fast approaching time horizons warrant planning strategies for reducing impacts on human morbidity and mortality. This study sought to determine whether increases in temperature and other changes in weather indices impacted rates of fatal accidents occurring in the popular mountainous regions of Austria with the purpose of improving mountain prevention and accident mitigation strategies. The study was based on the merging of 3285 fatal outdoor accidents reported by the Austrian Alpine Safety Board for the period 2006 to 2018 with daily meteorological data from 43 nearby climate stations during the same period. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model the odds of one or more fatal accidents per station and day with weather indices as predictors, controlling for weekend effects bringing more visitors to the mountains. Separate prediction models were performed for summer and winter activities, as well as for specific disciplines. Even after adjustment for concomitant effects impacting mountain fatal accidents, the daily weather indices of temperature, relative humidity, global radiation, cloudiness, snow cover and precipitation were statistically significantly associated with fatal accident risk. In particular, a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature was associated with a 13% increase in odds of a mountain biking accident in the summer and a 8% increase in odds of a mountain suicide in the winter. An increase in global radiation by 1 kWh/m2 was associated with a 11% and 28% increase in fatal accident odds for mountaineering in the summer and touring in the winter, respectively.

Weather Forecast Semiotics: Public Interpretation of Common Weather Icons

Weather icons are some of the most frequently used visual tools meteorologists employ to communicate weather information. Previous research has shown a tendency for the public to make inferences about weather forecast information based on the icon shown. For example, people may infer a higher likelihood of precipitation, assume a higher intensity of precipitation, or determine the duration of expected precipitation if the weather icon appears to show heavy rain. It is unknown to what extent these inferences align with what the meteorologist who chose the icon intended to convey. However, previous studies have used simulated weather icons rather than ones currently in use. The goal of our study was to explore how members of the public interpret actual weather icons they see on television or in mobile applications. An online survey distributed by broadcast meteorologists through social media was used to collect 6,253 responses between August and September of 2020. Eleven weather icons currently used by broadcast meteorologists were included in the study. We also tested eight common weather phrases and asked people whether they thought the icons were good illustrators of those phrases. Additionally, people were asked to assign a probability of precipitation (PoP) to the icons. The findings of our study offer new and unique insights that will improve the communication of weather information by giving meteorologists information about how their audiences interpret weather icons.

Oceanic Influence on Seasonal Malaria Incidence in West Africa.

Climate variability is a key factor in driving malaria outbreaks. As shown in previous studies, climate-driven malaria modeling provides a better understanding of malaria transmission dynamics, generating malaria-related parameters validated as a reliable benchmark to assess the impact of climate on malaria. In this framework, the present study uses climate observations and reanalysis products to evaluate the predictability of malaria incidence in West Africa. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are shown as a skillful predictor of malaria incidence, which is derived from climate-driven simulations with the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Using the S4CAST tool, we find robust modes of anomalous SST variability associated with skillful predictability of malaria incidence Accordingly, significant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins are related to a significant response of malaria incidence over West Africa. For the Mediterranean Sea, warm (cold) SST anomalies are responsible for increased (decreased) surface air temperatures and precipitation over West Africa, resulting in higher (lower) malaria incidence. Our results put forward the key role of SST variability as a source of predictability of malaria incidence, being of paramount interest to decision-makers who plan public health measures against malaria in West Africa. Accordingly, SST anomalies could be used operationally to forecast malaria risk over West Africa for early warning systems.

Misinformation and instant access: inconsistent reporting during extreme climatic events, reflecting on Tropical Cyclone Idai

In an era of globalisation, the spread of misinformation is becoming increasingly problematic. The dissemination of inaccurate and conflicting news on events such as tropical cyclones, can result in people being placed at increased risk and negatively influence the amount of aid received by the region. This study scrutinises media articles, and with the use of comparative analysis, uncovers the potential cause of misinformation in disaster journalism. The results of the study found that 59% (n=80) of the articles reported on wind speed values while 80% (n=80) of the articles reported on the number of fatalities. Results indicate that 44% (n=80) of the articles used official sources, uncovering that the potential source of misinformation is not only what is provided to journalists from official sources, but how the various sources used lead to contradicting news articles. The variations in news reports can be attributed to factors such as, the influx of different reports and the changing conditions during a disaster, all of which make consistent reporting on a disaster a challenging process.