The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations
2021 ◽
Vol 2021
(1320)
◽
pp. 1-48
Keyword(s):
This paper uses over two decades of Italian survey data on business managers' expectations to measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. We document that firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms' demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables. The source of uncertainty matters with firms responding only to downside uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about future adverse outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, constructed aggregating firm-level uncertainty, is countercyclical but uncorrelated with typical proxies in the literature, and accounts for a sizable amount of GDP variation during crises.
Keyword(s):
2005 ◽
Vol 73
(4)
◽
pp. 479-499
◽
COMORBIDITY OF DEPRESSION AND ANXIETY AMONG STUDENTS AT THE KENYA MEDICAL TRAINING COLLEGES IN KENYA
2020 ◽
Vol 7
(8)
◽
pp. 360-370
2015 ◽
pp. 141-160
1988 ◽
Vol 25
(2)
◽
pp. 193-203
◽