scholarly journals Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert 2.0: Public Rollout

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 1763-1775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica D. Kohler ◽  
Deborah E. Smith ◽  
Jennifer Andrews ◽  
Angela I. Chung ◽  
Renate Hartog ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Warning System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Event Rates

Abstract The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system is designed to automatically identify and characterize the initiation and rupture evolution of large earthquakes, estimate the intensity of ground shaking that will result, and deliver alerts to people and systems that may experience shaking, prior to the occurrence of shaking at their location. It is configured to issue alerts to locations within the West Coast of the United States. In 2018, ShakeAlert 2.0 went live in a regional public test in the first phase of a general public rollout. The ShakeAlert system is now providing alerts to more than 60 institutional partners in the three states of the western United States where most of the nation’s earthquake risk is concentrated: California, Oregon, and Washington. The ShakeAlert 2.0 product for public alerting is a message containing a polygon enclosing a region predicted to experience modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold levels that depend on the delivery method. Wireless Emergency Alerts are delivered for M 5+ earthquakes with expected shaking of MMI≥IV. For cell phone apps, the thresholds are M 4.5+ and MMI≥III. A polygon format alert is the easiest description for selective rebroadcasting mechanisms (e.g., cell towers) and is a requirement for some mass notification systems such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Integrated Public Alert and Warning System. ShakeAlert 2.0 was tested using historic waveform data consisting of 60 M 3.5+ and 25 M 5.0+ earthquakes, in addition to other anomalous waveforms such as calibration signals. For the historic event test, the average M 5+ false alert and missed event rates for ShakeAlert 2.0 are 8% and 16%. The M 3.5+ false alert and missed event rates are 10% and 36.7%. Real-time performance metrics are also presented to assess how the system behaves in regions that are well-instrumented, sparsely instrumented, and for offshore earthquakes.

Accuracy and Uncertainty Analysis of Selected Methodological Approaches to Earthquake Early Warning in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Elisa Zuccolo ◽  
Carmine Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Error Metric ◽  
Conceptual Study

Abstract Earthquake early warning (EEW) is becoming an increasingly attractive real-time strategy for mitigating the threats posed by potentially devastating incoming seismic events. As efforts accelerate to develop practical EEW-based solutions for earthquake-prone countries in Europe, it is important to understand and quantify the level of performance that can be achieved by the underlying seismological algorithms. We conduct a conceptual study on EEW performance in Europe, which explicitly focuses on the accuracy and associated uncertainties of selected methodological approaches. Twenty-three events from four diverse European testbeds are used to compare the quality of EEW predictions produced by the Virtual Seismologist and PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem algorithms. We first examine the location and magnitude estimates of the algorithms, accounting for both bias and uncertainty in the resulting predictions. We then investigate the ground-shaking prediction capabilities of the source-parameter estimates, using an error metric that can explicitly capture the propagation of uncertainties in these estimates. Our work highlights the importance of accounting for EEW parameter uncertainties, which are often neglected in studies of EEW performance. Our findings can be used to inform current and future implementations of EEW systems in Europe. In addition, the evaluation metrics presented in this work can be used to determine EEW accuracy in any worldwide setting.

scholarly journals Design and implementation of a mobile device app for network-based earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs): application to the PRESTo EEWS in southern Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 921-931
Author(s):  
Simona Colombelli ◽  
Francesco Carotenuto ◽  
Luca Elia ◽  
Aldo Zollo
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mobile App ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Wide Audience ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning System

Abstract. A fundamental feature of any earthquake early warning system is the ability of rapidly broadcast earthquake information to reach a wide audience of potential end users and stakeholders, in an intuitive, customizable way. Smartphones and other mobile devices are nowadays continuously connected to the Internet and represent the ideal tools for earthquake alerts dissemination to inform a large number of users about the potential damaging shaking of an impending earthquake. Here we present a mobile app (named ISNet EWApp or simply EWApp) for Android devices which can receive the alerts generated by a network-based Early Warning system. Specifically, the app receives the earthquake alerts generated by the PRESTo EEWS, which is currently running on the accelerometric stations of the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) in southern Italy. In the absence of alerts, EWApp displays the standard bulletin of seismic events that have occurred within the network. In the event of a relevant earthquake, the app has a dedicated module to predict the expected ground-shaking intensity and the available lead time at the user's position and to provide customized messages to inform the user about the proper reaction to adopt during the alert. We first present the architecture of both the network-based system and EWApp and then describe its essential operational modes. The app is designed in a way that is easily exportable to any other network-based early warning system.

scholarly journals Comparing the Performance of Regional Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms in Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Zuccolo ◽  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Carmine Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Processing Times

Several earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms have been developed worldwide for rapidly estimating real-time information (i.e., location, magnitude, ground shaking, and/or potential consequences) about ongoing seismic events. This study quantitatively compares the operational performance of two popular regional EEW algorithms for European conditions of seismicity and network configurations. We specifically test PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo) and the implementation of the Virtual Seismologist magnitude component within SeisComP, VS(SC), which we use jointly with the SeisComP scanloc module for locating events. We first evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of the location and magnitude estimates computed by both algorithms in real-time simulation mode, accounting for the continuous streaming of data and effective processing times. Then, we focus on the alert-triggering (decision-making) phase of EEW and investigate both algorithms’ ability to yield accurate ground-motion predictions at the various temporal instances that provide a range of warning times at target sites. We find that the two algorithms show comparable performances in terms of source parameters. In addition, PRESTo produces better rapid estimates of ground motion (i.e., those that facilitate the largest lead times); therefore, we conclude that PRESTo may have a greater risk-mitigation potential than VS(SC) in general. However, VS(SC) is the optimal choice of EEW algorithm if shorter warning times are permissible. The findings of this study can be used to inform current and future implementations of EEW systems in Europe.

Regional Seismic Networks Operating along the West Coast of the United States of America

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (2A) ◽  
pp. 695-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret Hellweg ◽  
Paul Bodin ◽  
Jayne M. Bormann ◽  
Hamid Haddadi ◽  
Egill Hauksson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Warning System ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning System ◽  
Seismic Waveform ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Seismic Networks

Abstract The Pacific coast of the contiguous United States hosts the highest seismic risk in the country due to the intersection of high-seismic hazard and the high densities of population and infrastructure. The regional seismic networks in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and California have operated for many years and have collected long catalogs and large amounts of seismic waveform data in a variety of formats, including digital records. These data are available for engineering purposes and research into earthquakes, other natural and man-made seismic sources, and the Earth’s structure. The West Coast networks are closely coordinating as they embark on the implementation of West Coast ShakeAlert, an earthquake early warning system.

Earthquake Early Warning: Advances, Scientific Challenges, and Societal Needs

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 361-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Allen ◽  
Diego Melgar
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
The United States ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Societal Needs ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
User Groups ◽  
Ground Motion Models

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the delivery of ground shaking alerts or warnings. It is distinguished from earthquake prediction in that the earthquake has nucleated to provide detectable ground motion when an EEW is issued. Here we review progress in the field in the last 10 years. We begin with EEW users, synthesizing what we now know about who uses EEW and what information they need and can digest. We summarize the approaches to EEW and gather information about currently existing EEW systems implemented in various countries while providing the context and stimulus for their creation and development. We survey important advances in methods, instrumentation, and algorithms that improve the quality and timeliness of EEW alerts. We also discuss the development of new, potentially transformative ideas and methodologies that could change how we provide alerts in the future. ▪ Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection and characterization of earthquakes and delivery of an alert so that protective actions can be taken. ▪ EEW systems now provide public alerts in Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan and alerts to select user groups in India, Turkey, Romania, and the United States. ▪ EEW methodologies fall into three categories, point source, finite fault, and ground motion models, and we review the advantages of each of these approaches. ▪ The wealth of information about EEW uses and user needs must be employed to focus future developments and improvements in EEW systems.

Rapid Estimation of the Epicentral Distance in the Earthquake Early Warning System around the Tehran Region, Iran

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahar Nazeri ◽  
Zaher Hossein Shomali
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning System ◽  
Tehran Region

ABSTRACT The estimation of epicentral distance is a critical step in earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that is necessary to characterize the level of expected ground shaking. In this study, two rapid methodologies, that is, B‐Δ and C‐Δ, are evaluated to estimate the epicentral distance for use in the EEWSs around the Tehran region. Traditionally, the B and C coefficients are computed using acceleration records, however, in this study, we utilize both acceleration and velocity waveforms for obtaining a suitable B‐Δ and C‐Δ relationships for the Tehran region. In comparison with observations from Japan, our measurements fall within the range of scatter. However, our results show a lower trend, which can strongly depend on the few numbers of events and range of magnitude (small‐to‐moderate) of earthquakes used in the current research. To improve our result, we include some large earthquakes from Iran, Italy, and Japan with magnitude larger than 5.9. Although the optimal trend is finally obtained by fitting a line to the distance‐averaged points, we conclude that the same trend and relationship as Japan can be used in Tehran early warning system. We also found that B and C parameters are strongly compatible to each other. As time windows of 3.0 and 0.5 s after the P onset are chosen respectively to compute the B and C values, so by selecting the C parameter as a proxy of B parameter to estimate the epicentral distance, we may save significant time in order of about 2.5 s in any earthquake early warning applications.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document