scholarly journals Valoración de los bancos cotizados españoles tras la crisis = Valuation of the Spanish listed banks after the crisis

Author(s):  
Adrián Ferreras González ◽  
María Teresa Tascón

<p>Después del inicio de la crisis financiera, la cotización en bolsa de las principales entidades financieras españolas se vio enormemente reducida y se ha mantenido en niveles bajos desde entonces. Con el objetivo de determinar si el valor en bolsa se corresponde con el valor intrínseco, se aplican los modelos de descuento de dividendos y descuento de resultados anormales, y se estima el coste de capital según las circunstancias de cada entidad. Teniendo en cuenta los factores macroeconómicos y sectoriales más relevantes que inciden sobre el valor de estas entidades, los resultados indican que cinco de los seis bancos cotizarían ligeramente por debajo del valor estimado y uno de ellos ligeramente por encima. En cuanto a los costes de capital, nuestros resultados indican que se ven afectados de forma notable por el negocio internacional de las entidades.</p><p>After the financial crisis started, the market values of the main Spanish financial institutions suffered a sharp cut and their shares have traded at really low levels since then. Trying to determine whether their price corresponds to their intrinsic value, a valuation of these firms is done by applying the dividend discount model and the residual income model. A cost of capital for each institution is also estimated. Taking into account the most relevant macroeconomic and industrial factors affecting the banks’ value, our results indicate that five out of six banks would be slightly undervalued, and the other one is slightly overvalued. Concerning the cost of capital, our results suggest that it is markedly affected by the internationalization of the firms.</p>

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Tiwari ◽  
Harish Kumar Singla

Purpose – Being a developing nation with huge opportunity of growth prospects the assessment of valuation models becomes important to have a more realistic value estimate. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the comparative accuracy and explanatory performance of discounted cash flow (DCF) and residual income model (RIM) valuation models for the Indian chemical industry and come up with a composite valuation model. Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the objective of the study the authors first determine the intrinsic values using both the models. Comparisons of the models are based on prediction errors and the explanatory performance of market value on value estimates. The study uses panel regression to forecast estimates of earnings and measure explanatory performance. The authors examine the ability of the value estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in the observed market values. The study also uses GMM method for deriving robust estimators. Variables for the study are collected from the CMIE’s prowess data base (release 4). The authors consider all 1,075 BSE listed chemical companies for the purpose of the study. The study uses annual data points starting from 31 March 2002 to 31 March 2011. Findings – The comparative framework shows that both Residual Income model and Composite Valuation model are superior to Discounted cash flow model and are equally likely. But since composite value estimates considers all bonafide informations of individual models, the estimates of Composite Valuation model becomes more reliable. Research limitations/implications – The study only compares and combines the two most widely used valuation models around the world. Future studies can be conducted using the third widely used valuation models, i.e. multiples and see the level of accuracy of individuals as well as the composite model. Originality/value – As a concern very few research has been conducted in this area in India. This paper provides practitioners with a snapshot of the applicability of DCF and RIM valuation models. And also shows how a composite value estimate can improve accuracy.


2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 101-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Vélez-Pareja ◽  
Joseph Tham

Most finance textbooks present the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) calculation as: WACC = Kd×(1-T)×D% + Ke×E%, where Kd is the cost of debt before taxes, T is the tax rate, D% is the percentage of debt on total value, Ke is the cost of equity and E% is the percentage of equity on total value. All of them precise (but not with enough emphasis) that the values to calculate D% y E% are market values. Although they devote special space and thought to calculate Kd and Ke, little effort is made to the correct calculation of market values. This means that there are several points that are not sufficiently dealt with: Market values, location in time, occurrence of tax payments, WACC changes in time and the circularity in calculating WACC. The purpose of this note is to clear up these ideas, solve the circularity problem and emphasize in some ideas that usually are looked over. Also, some suggestions are presented on how to calculate, or estimate, the equity cost of capital.


2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Chitra Gunshekhar Gounder ◽  
M. Venkateshwarlu

The Bank valuation model was designed based on objective to fit  the most  applicable  valuation model for banks to help in forecasting bank specific decision and also forecast the market value of share. First study the accuracy and explanatory value of the value estimates from the residual income model compared to the estimates from the Relative valuation model for banks. Empirical evidence suggests that the residual income model is superior to the relative valuation model when it comes to measuring bank shareholder value. The results of the comparison suggest that value estimates from the residual income model are even more reliable for banks. On this basis, we conclude that residual income is an appropriate value estimate for the shareholder value of banks. There was positive significant relationship identified between the intrinsic value of bank share determined by RIV model and Market price of share in all the cases by performing correlation and Regression study. This study will be useful for forecasting the possible changes in market price. It was identified that determinants vary as per the working and regulatory condition as determinants impacting private, public and Indian banks were not similar so panel regression model will vary for each cases. It was also identified that Public Sector Bank in India shows more positive progressive trend as compared to private Sector Bank even after the fact that public Sector Bank has higher regulatory restriction as compared to Private Sector banks. This research will serve very useful for the banker to plan and take decision regarding shareholder value creation by implementing proper valuation model for getting appropriate value estimate and also adopting proper internal performance measure for having accurate and regular check on the process of value creation. 


2013 ◽  
Vol 462-463 ◽  
pp. 833-836
Author(s):  
Yan Yu Zhang

Relationship between information disclosure and the cost of equity capital for small and medium-sized enterprises was studied by calculating the cost of equity capital using the residual income model. A multiple regression model was built considering economic condition in China. It was found that earnings information may help the small and medium-sized enterprise to reduce the cost of equity capital. One important motivation was that significant positive correlation was seen between financial leverage and the small and medium-sized enterprises cost of equity capital. Besides, negative correlation was seen between enterprise scale and the small and medium-sized enterprises cost of equity capital.


2004 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-36
Author(s):  
Alexsandro Broedel Lopes

This work investigates the valuation properties of accounting numbers in Brazil under three traditional frameworks: earnings capitalization, book value of equity and residual income. The sample was selected from companies traded at the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA) from 1995 to 1999, dividing the sample in two groups: companies with preferred and with common shares. My results show that the earnings capitalization model did not perform well for common shares and have a better performance for preferred shares because of the mandatory dividend distribution as a percentage of net income in Brazil and because earnings have no use as information asymmetry reducers in Brazil. The book value model performed better for common shares while residual income had a comparable performance and seems to be the dominant accounting-based valuation model for common shares. For preferred shares the residual income model performs better. The residual income term alone presents no significant difference for the two sets of companies. For both set of companies accounting income did not incorporated economic income.


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