Getting the valuation formulas right when it comes to annuities

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to establish the flow-to-equity method, the free cash flow (FCF) method, the adjusted present value method and the relationships between these methods when the FCF appears as an annuity. More specifically, we depart from the two most widely used evaluation settings. The first setting is that of Modigliani and Miller who based their analysis on a stationary FCF. The second setting is that of Miles and Ezzell who worked with an FCF that represents an autoregressive possess of first order.Design/methodology/approachInspired by recent observations in the literature concerning cash flows, discount rates and values in discounted cash flow (DCF) methods, we mathematically derive DCF valuation formulas for annuities.FindingsThe following relationships are established: (a) the correct discount rate of the tax shield when the free cash flow takes the form of a first-order autoregressive annuity, (b) the direct valuation of the tax shield from the free cash flow for a first-order autoregressive annuity, (c) the correct translation from the required return on unlevered equity to the levered equity, when the free cash flow is a stationary annuity and (d) direct calculation of the unlevered and levered firm values and the value of the tax shield for a stationary annuity.Originality/valueUntil now the complete set of formulas for the valuation of stochastic annuities by different DCF methods has not been established in the literature. These formulas are developed here. These formulas are important for practitioners and academics when it comes to the valuation of cash flows of finite lifetime.

The Method of Real Options and the Business Model «Lean Canvas» in the Practice of Performance Evaluation of it Projects

The relevance of the study is due to the active implementation of IT technologies in various aspects of companies, which gives special importance to the development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of projects in a highly uncertain environment. The paper presents the methodology and assesses the effectiveness of IT projects using binomial «decision tree» model and iterative risk assessment metamodel «Lean Canvas». The comparative assessment of IT project efficiency using discounted cash flow method, binomial «decision tree» model and Black–Scholes model was carried out. The results have shown the advantage of option-based approach to the evaluation of IT project efficiency in comparison with the traditional DCF method, which allows to build flexibility in the planning and management of the project, assess its potential and consider the uncertainties as additional opportunities for profit.

Taking the highway out: exiting the stock market to maximize results

Theoretical basis The essence of discounted cash flow valuation is simple; the asset is worth the expected cash flows it will generate, discounted to the reference date for the valuation exercise (normally, the day of the calculation). A survey article was written in Parker (1968), where it was stated that the earliest interest rate tables (use to discount value to the present) dated back to 1340. Works from Boulding (1935) and Keynes (1936) derived the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) for an investment. Samuelson (1937) compared the IRR and NPV (Net Present Value) approaches, arguing that rational investors should maximize NPV and not IRR. The previously mentioned works and the publication of Joel Dean’s reference book (Dean, 1951) on capital budgeting set the basis for the widespread use of the discounted cash flow approach into all business areas, aided by developments in portfolio theory. Nowadays, probably the model with more widespread use is the FCFE/FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Equity and Free Cash Flow to Firm) model. For simplification purposes, we will focus on the FCFE model, which basically is the FCF model’s version for the potential dividends. The focus is to value the business based on its dividends (potential or real), and thus care must be taken in order not to double count cash flows (this matter was treated in this case) and to assess what use is given to that excess cash flow – if it is invested wisely, what returns will come of them, how it is accounted for, etc. (Damodaran, 2006). The bridge to the FCFF model is straightforward; the FCFF includes FCFE and added cash that is owed to debtholders. References: Parker, R.H. (1968). “Discounted Cash Flow in Historical Perspective”, Journal of Accounting Research, v6, pp58-71. Boulding, K.E. (1935). “The Theory of a Single Investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, v49, pp479-494. Keynes, J. M. (1936). “The General Theory of Employment”, Macmillan, London. Samuelson, P. (1937). “Some Aspects of the Pure Theory of Capital”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, v51, pp. 469–496. Dean, Joel. (1951). “Capital Budgeting”, Columbia University Press, New York. Damodaran, A. (2006). “Damodaran on Valuation”, Second Edition, John Wiley and Sons, New York. Research methodology All information is taken from public sources and with consented company interviews. Case overview/synopsis Opportunities for value creation may be found in awkward and difficult circumstances. Good strategic thinking and ability to act swiftly are usually crucial to be able to take advantage of such tough environments. Amidst a country-wide economic crisis and general disbelief, José de Mello Group (JMG) saw one of its main assets’ (Brisa Highways) market value tumble down to unforeseen figures and was forced to act on it. Brisa’s main partners were eager in overpowering JMG’s control of the company, and outside pressure from Deutsche Bank was rising, due to the use of Brisa’s shares as collateral. JMG would have to revise its strategy and see if Brisa was worth fighting for; the market implicit assessment about the company’s prospects was very penalizing, but JMG’s predictions on Brisa’s future performance indicated that this could be an investment opportunity. Would it be wise to bet against the market? Complexity academic level This study is excellent for finance and strategy courses, at both undergraduate and graduate levels. Company valuation and corporate strategy are required.

Application of discounted cash flow model valuation: The case of Excide industries

Theoretical and practical features of the widely used discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation approach are examined in depth in this paper. This research evaluates Exide Industries by using the DCF Valuation technique. It is widely accepted that the discounted cash flow approach is an effective tool for analyzing the situation of an organization even in the most complicated circumstances. The DCF approach, on the other hand, is prone to huge assumption bias, and even little modifications in an analysis' underlying assumptions may substantially affect the valuation findings. As a result, of the sensitivity analysis, we discovered bullish, base, and worst-case scenarios with target share prices of Rs. 253.25, Rs. 171.37, and Rs.133.25, respectively, by adjusting growth and WACC (Weighted-Average Cost of Capital) values.

Integrated Subsurface Study for Gas-Oil Communicating Reservoirs: From Structural Synthesis to Optimum Co-FDP

This paper presents an integrated subsurface study that focuses on delivering field development planning of two reservoirs via comprehensive reservoir characterization workflows. The upper gas reservoir and lower oil reservoir are in communication across a major fault in the crest area of the structure. Gas from the upper reservoir, which is not under development, is being produced along with some oil producers from the oil reservoir as per acquired surveillance data. Pressure depletion is observed in observer wells of the upper reservoir, which substantiate both reservoirs communication. The oil reservoir is on production since 1994, under miscible hydrocarbon water alternating gas injection (HCWAG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) injection. The currently implemented development plan has been facing several complexities and challenges including, but not limited to, maintaining miscibility conditions, sustainability of production and injection in view of reservoirs communication, reservoir modeling challenges, suitability of monitoring strategy, associated operating costs and expansion of field development in newly appraised areas. In this study, an assessment of multiple alternative field development scenarios was conducted; with an aim to tackle field management and reservoir challenges. It commenced by a comprehensive synthesis of seismic, petrophysical (including extensive core characterizations), geological, production and reservoir engineering data to ensure data adequacy and effectiveness for development planning. The process was followed by evaluation of the historical reservoir management, HCWAG and CO2 injection practices using advanced analytics to identify areas for improvement and accelerate decision making process. The identified areas of improvement were incorporated into a dynamic model via diverse set of field management logics to screen wide range of scenarios. In the final step, the optimal scenarios were selected, in line of having strong economic indicators, honoring operational constraints, corporate business plan and strategic objectives. The comprehensive and flexible field management logic was set up to target different challenges and was used to extensively screen hundreds of different field development scenarios varying several parameters. Examples of such parameters are WAG ratio, injection pressures for both water/gas and CO2, cycle duration, well placement, reservoir production and injection guidelines, different co-development production schemes coupled with static and dynamic uncertainty properties against incremental oil production and discounted cash flow. The simulation results were analyzed using standardized approach where a number of key indicators was cross-referenced to produce optimal field development scenarios with regards to co-development effect of both reservoirs, miscibility conditions, balanced pressure depletion, harmonized sweep as well as robust discounted cash flow. Strong management support, multi-disciplinary data integration, agility of decision making and revisions in a controlled timeframe are considered as the key pillars for success of this study. The adopted workflow covers subsurface modeling aspects from A-Z and following reservoir characterization and modeling best practices. The methodology applied in this study uses an integrated subsurface structured approach to tackle reservoirs challenges and co-development, generate alternative development options leveraging on data analytics techniques and advanced field management strategies.

The Influence of Policy Risk on Swiss Wind Power Investment

Wind energy is one of the most affordable and fastest-growing sources of electricity worldwide. As a large share of wind power generation occurs in the winter season, it could make an important contribution to seasonal diversification of domestic electricity supply. However, the development of wind energy projects in Switzerland has been characterized by long and complex administrative processes, with the planning phase taking up to a decade, more than twice as long as the European average. The objective of this chapter is to quantify the risk premium that lengthy permitting processes imply for wind energy investors in Switzerland and to suggest ways to reduce policy risk. The data have been gathered through 22 confidential interviews with project developers and several cantonal permitting agencies as well as a review of federal and cantonal regulatory documents. Furthermore, a discounted cash flow model was built to compare the profitability indicators (IRR, NPV) and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of a reference case to scenarios with various risks—for example, delays in the permitting process, downsizing the project, or changes in the regulatory environment such as phasing out feed-in tariffs. The model shows that the highest profitability risks are related to the availability of a feed-in tariff, but other changes in the permitting process can also have a critical impact on the project’s bottom line. The findings illustrate a significant policy risk premium in the pre-construction stage faced by wind energy project developers in Switzerland.

A Study on Intelligent Technology Valuation System: Introduction of KIBO Patent Appraisal System II

Technology finance, which has attracted worldwide attention for the successful business development of small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) or start-ups, has advanced an innovation or stagnation way-out resolution strategy for companies in line with the low-growth economic trends. Although the development of new technologies and the establishment of active R&D and commercialization strategies are essential factors in a company’s management sustainability, the activation of the technology market in practice is still in progress for its golden age. In this study, to promote a technology transfer-based company’s growth and to run technology-based various financial support activities, we develop and propose a new intelligent, deep learning-based technology valuation system that enables technology holders to estimate the economic values of their innovative technologies and further to establish a firm’s commercialization strategy. For the last years, the KIBO Patent Appraisal System (KPAS-II) herein proposed has been advanced by KIBO as a web-based, artificial intelligence (AI) and evaluation data applications valuation system that automatically calculates and estimates a technology’s feasible economic value by utilizing both the intrinsic and extrinsic index information of a patent and the commercialization entity’s business capabilities, and by applying to the discounted cash flow (DCF) method in valuation theory, and finally integrating with deep learning results based on the in-advance previously established patent DB and the financial DB. The KPAS-II proposed in this study can be said to have dramatically overcome the long-term preparation period and high levels of R&D and commercialization costs in terms of the limitations that the existing technology valuation method possesses by enhancing the reliability of approximate economic values from the deep learning results based on financial data and completed valuation data. In addition, it is expected that technology marketing coordinators, researchers, and non-specialty business agents, not limited to valuation experts, can easily estimate the economic values of their patents or technologies, and they can be actively utilized in a technology-based company’s decision-making and technologically dependent financial activities.

Organizational characteristics of preparing and conducting IPO transactions in the banking sector

Subject. The article is devoted to the study of the specific features of banks’ IPO preparation and execution. Objectives. The focus is on the critical analysis of special aspects related to IPO of credit institutions. Methods. The study includes analytical methods for collecting and processing of information, as well as the comparative analysis. Results. I highlight the main characteristics of banks’ economic model, summarize the results of researchers' work on the analysis of factors influencing the profitability of credit institutions, analyze methods for evaluating companies for IPO purposes, identify main approaches to the assessment of bank value, and define the most appropriate methods to evaluate banks for IPO purposes. Conclusions. In general, the process of preparation and execution of banking IPOs is similar to IPO execution by other companies. However, the nature of economic activity of banks determines specific methods for assessing the value of banks for IPO purposes. Currently, there is no single preferred method for valuing banks, while there are certain aspects of the use of general methods to determine the value of credit institutions. For the valuation of companies for IPO, mainly comparative and income methods are used. For the valuation of banks, it is preferable to use the comparative method based on P/E and P/B multiples. As for the income method, it is recommended to use discounted cash flow valuation based on FCFE calculation, as well as the dividend discount model.

Techno-economic analysis of producing low heating value underground coal gasification gas in Indonesia

Indonesia is currently reviewing the use of underground coal gasification (UCG) technology to utilize deep-seated coal. UCG may exploit the coal deposit that is not feasible for open-pit mines due to its great depths. In this study, the UCG plant in two coal mines, the Kideco Jaya Agung (KJA) and the Indominco (IMM) coal mines, will be compared their economics in producing low heating value gas with a capacity of 170,000 MJ/hour. The UCG plants implement the linking vertical well (LVW) technique combined with reverses combustion linking (RCL). The discounted cash flow (DCF) method is used for financial analysis to determine the minimum selling price of UCG low heating value gas. The study aims to understand the economic feasibility of applying UCG technology to Indonesia’s different characteristics of coal deposits. The results show the minimum prices of the low heating value UCG gas of KJA and IMM UCG plants are USD 3/MMBTU and USD 3.57/MMBTU, respectively. The operating cost of the IMM UCG is higher than that of the KJA UCG plant due to its thinner and deeper coal seams.

PERANCANGAN SISTEM PENAWARAN STARTUP DAN INVESTOR ONLINE

In terms of establishing and nurturing startups, finances are required to ensure their long-term viability. Startups at this stage require the support of investors as financial backers. The dearth of forums for promoting companies makes it difficult for developers to get traction and attract investors. The bidding method for entrepreneurs and investors was designed with these limits in mind. The waterfall concept is used in the design of this offering system, in which the website design is completed consecutively from beginning to end. The purpose of this website's design is to make it easier for developers to advertise startups or "products," to create possibilities for developers to meet investors indirectly, and to make it easier for investors to analyze startups with future potential. Startups are classified according to their valuation value; the Discounted Cash Flow approach was used to calculate the valuation for this website design