Using of probabilistic methods for current loads estimation in traction circuit components

Objective: To develop the method of calculating the electrical loads on the traction circuit components, by using data of train traffic schedule, considering the train weight differences and real-life modes of its traction under the variety of track profile, speed limitations and other parameters of traction and external electric power supply systems. Methods: To determine the mean values and dispersion of current for power supply line of traction circuit, based on the experimental runs and data from movement parameters recorders of locomotives, by type and weight of trains, the methods of probability theory and mathematic statistics were used. The current, consumed by the trains, is considered to be a random variable. Current loads of the trains is put into fixed weight, that allows to obtain statistical expectation and correlation function. Results: The ratios obtained allow to estimate general mean and effective values by sampled values within confidence limits. The paper provides the conditions, under with the current consumption functions have ergodic property cap. It also states the recommendations for train rating, based on its weight. The statistical expectations and mean square deviations of currents of traction power supply components. Practical importance: The load estimations are adjusted, that allows to determine the parameters of power circuits of electric railways in a more substantiated way. Obtained equations allow to determine the possibility of current loads bigger than given value, that should be considered while choosing the capacity of transformers, rectifiers, compensating devices, inverters, power supply and earth leads. Thus, it is possible to reach the required reliability of equipment operation and cost effectiveness of decisions.