scholarly journals Analisis Kontrol Optimal Model Matematikan Penyebaran Penyakit Mosaic pada Tanaman Jarak Pagar

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
Adiluhung Setya Pambudi ◽  
Fatmawati Fatmawati ◽  
Windarto Windarto
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Jatropha Curcas ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Mosaic Disease ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Stability

Mosaic disease is an infectious disease that attacks Jatropha curcas caused by Begomoviruses. Mosaic disease can be transmitted through the bite of a whitefly as a vector. In this paper, we studied a mathematical model of mosaic disease spreading of Jatropha curcas with awareness effect. We also studied the effect of prevention and extermination strategies as optimal control variables. Based on the results of the model analysis, we found two equilibriums namely the mosaic-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of equilibriums and the existence of endemic equilibrium depend on basic reproduction number ( ). When , the spread of mosaic disease does not occur in the population, while when , the spread of mosaic disease occurs in the population. Furthermore, we determined existence of the optimal control variable by Pontryagin's Maximum Principle method. Simulation results show that prevention and extermination have a significant effect in eliminating mosaic disease.

scholarly journals Analisis kestabilan dan kontrol optimal model matematika penyebaran penyakit Ebola dengan variabel kontrol berupa karantina

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-41
Author(s):  
Erzalina Ayu Satya Megananda ◽  
Cicik Alfiniyah ◽  
Miswanto Miswanto
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Two Equilibria

Ebola disease is an infectious disease caused by a virus from the genus Ebolavirus and the family Filoviridae. Ebola disease is one of the most deadly diseases for human. The purpose of the thesis is to analyze the stability of the equilibrium point and to apply the optimal control of quarantine on a mathematical model of the spread of ebola. Model without control has two equilibria, non-endemic equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. The existence of endemic equilibrium and local stability depends on the basic reproduction number (R0). The non-endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable if R0 1 and endemic equilibrium tend to asymptotically stable if R0 1. The problem of optimal control is solved by Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. From the numerical simulation, the result shows that control is effective enough to minimize the number of infected human population and to minimize the cost of its control.

scholarly journals Analisis Kestabilan dan Kontrol Optimal Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Ebola dengan Penanganan Medis

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Sofita Suherman ◽  
Fatmawati Fatmawati ◽  
Cicik Alfiniyah
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Treatment Population ◽  
Deceased Individual ◽  
Two Equilibria

Ebola disease is one of an infectious disease caused by a virus. Ebola disease can be transmitted through direct contact with Ebola’s patient, infected medical equipment, and contact with the deceased individual. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the stability of equilibriums and to apply the optimal control of treatment on the mathematical model of the spread of Ebola with medical treatment. Model without control has two equilibria, namely non-endemic equilibrium (E0) and endemic equilibrium (E1) The existence of endemic equilibrium and local stability depends on the basic reproduction number (R0). The non-endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if  R0 < 1 and endemic equilibrium tend to asymptotically stable if R0 >1 . The problem of optimal control is then solved by Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. From the numerical simulation result, it is found that the control is effective to minimize the number of the infected human population and the number of the infected human with medical treatment population compare without control.

Dynamical Behavior of a Malaria Model with Discrete Delay and Optimal Insecticide Control

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 19-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuhin Kumar Kar ◽  
Soovoojeet Jana
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Optimal Control Problem ◽  
Control Problem ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dynamical Behavior ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Discrete Delay ◽  
Insecticide Control

In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple three-dimensional mathematical model related to malaria disease. We consider three state variables associated with susceptible human population, infected human population and infected mosquitoes, respectively. A discrete delay parameter has been incorporated to take account of the time of incubation period with infected mosquitoes. We consider the effect of insecticide control, which is applied to the mosquitoes. Basic reproduction number is figured out for the proposed model and it is shown that when this threshold is less than unity then the system moves to the disease-free state whereas for higher values other than unity, the system would tend to an endemic state. On the other hand if we consider the system with delay, then there may exist some cases where the endemic equilibrium would be unstable although the numerical value of basic reproduction number may be greater than one. We formulate and solve the optimal control problem by considering insecticide as the control variable. Optimal control problem assures to obtain better result than the noncontrol situation. Numerical illustrations are provided in support of the theoretical results.

scholarly journals APLIKASI MODEL EPIDEMIK SEIAR-SEI PADA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT MALARIA DENGAN INFEKSI ASIMTOMATIK DAN SUPER INFEKSI

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Stella Maryana Belwawin
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Super Infection ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractThis aim of this study is to determine the point of equilibrium and analyze the stability of SEIAR-SEI model on malaria disease with asymptomatic infection, super infection and the effect of the mosquito's life cycle. This study also aim is to measure the sensitivity of the spread of malaria to the parameters of asymptomatic infections, the rate of treatment, and the rate of birth of mosquitoes through the magnitude of . The method in this research is deductively, through several stage, such as  determination of disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point, determination of basic reproduction number (), analyze of the basic reproduction number sensitivity of the spread of malaria to the parameters of asymptomatic infections, the rate of treatment, and the rate of birth of mosquitoes. The endemic equilibrium point was obtained using rule of Descartes. The result show that the change in the value of parameter , , and  has effect on the basic reproduction number (). Treatment factors in the human population influence the elimination of malaria in a population. Whereas asymptomatic infection factors and the birth rate of adult mosquitoes influence the increase in malaria infection. Keywords:  Malaria, asymptomatic infection, super infection, basic reproduction number, rule of descrates. AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan menentukan titik keseimbangan dan menganalisis kestabilan dari model SEIAR_SEI pada penyakit malaria dengan pengaruh infeksi asimtomatik, super infeksi, dan siklus hidup nyamuk. Penelitian ini juga bertujuan mengukur tingkat sensitivitas penyebaran penyakit malaria terhadap parameter infeksi asimtomatik, laju pengobatan, serta laju kelahiran nyamuk.melalu besaran .  Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode deduktif dengan langkah-langkah : menentukan titik keseimbangan bebas penyakit dan endemik dan menentukan bilangan reproduksi dasar ). Analisis sensitivitas bilangan reproduksi dasar dilakukan terhadap parameter infeksi asimtomatik, pengobatan, dan laju kelahiran nyamuk. Tititk keseimbangan endemik diperoleh dengan aturan descrates. Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan parameter , , dan  berpengaruh terhadap bilangan reproduksi dasar (). Faktor pengobatan berpengaruh terhadap eliminasi penyakit malaria. Sedangkan faktor infeksi asimtomatik dan laju kelahiran nyamuk dewasa berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan infeksi penyakit malaria. Kata kunci: Malaria, Infeksi Asimtomatik, Super Infeksi, Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar, Aturan Descrates . 

PREVENTING THE SPREAD OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS IN GHANA: POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF INTEGRATED OPTIMAL CONTROL STRATEGIES

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (04) ◽  
pp. 625-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
HONG ZHANG ◽  
PRINCE HARVIM ◽  
PAUL GEORGESCU
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Dimensional System ◽  
Vector Population ◽  
Sanitation And Hygiene ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Manifold Theory

The goal of a future free from schistosomiasis in Ghana can be achieved through integrated strategies, targeting simultaneously several stages of the life cycle of the schistosome parasite. In this paper, the transmission of schistosomiasis is modeled as a multi-scale 12-dimensional system of ODEs that includes vector-host and within-host dynamics of infection. An explicit expression for the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained via the next generation method, this expression being interpreted in biological terms, as well as in terms of reproductive numbers for each type of interaction involved. After discussing the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the existence and uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, the Center Manifold Theory is used to show that for values of [Formula: see text] larger than 1, but close to 1, the unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. A sensitivity analysis indicates that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the natural death rate of the vector population, while numerical simulations of optimal control strategies reveal that the most effective strategy for the control and possible elimination of schistosomiasis should combine sanitary measures (access to safe water, improved sanitation and hygiene education), large-scale treatment of infected population and vector control measures (via the use of molluscicides), for a significant amount of time.

THE DYNAMICS OF A DISCRETE SEIT MODEL WITH AGE AND INFECTION AGE STRUCTURES

2012 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 1260004 ◽  
Author(s):  
HUI CAO ◽  
YANNI XIAO ◽  
YICANG ZHOU
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Threshold Parameter ◽  
Infection Age ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Globally Stable ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Age Structures

Age and infection age have significant influence on the transmission of infectious diseases, such as HIV/AIDS and TB. A discrete SEIT model with age and infection age structures is formulated to investigate the dynamics of the disease spread. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter to characterize the disease extinction or persistence. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R0 < 1, and it is unstable if R0 > 1. When R0 > 1, there exists an endemic equilibrium, and the disease is uniformly persistent. The stability of the endemic equilibrium is investigated numerically.

scholarly journals Pengembangan Model Matematika SIRD (Susceptibles-Infected-Recovery-Deaths) Pada Penyebaran Virus Ebola

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Endah Purwati ◽  
Sugiyanto Sugiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Direct Contact ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Body Fluids ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Ebola is a deadly disease caused by a virus and is spread through direct contact with blood or body fluids such as urine, feces, breast milk, saliva and semen. In this case, direct contact means that the blood or body fluids of patients were directly touching the nose, eyes, mouth, or a wound someone open. In this paper examined two mathematical models SIRD (Susceptibles-Infected-Recovery-Deaths) the spread of the Ebola virus in the human population. Both the mathematical model SIRD on the spread of the Ebola virus is a model by Abdon A. and Emile F. D. G. and research development model. This study was conducted to determine the point of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point and stability analysis of the dots, knowing the value of the basic reproduction number (R0) and a simulation model using Matlab software version 6.1.0.450. From the analysis of the two models, obtained the same point for disease-free equilibrium point with the stability of different points and different points for endemic equilibrium point with the stability of both the same point and the same value to the value of the basic reproduction number (R0). After simulating the model using Matlab software version 6.1.0.450, it can be seen changes in the behavior of the population at any time.

STABILITY OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH INFECTIVITY IN INCUBATIVE PERIOD

2010 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 299-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHU-MIN GUO ◽  
XUE-ZHI LI ◽  
XIN-YU SONG
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Stability Conditions ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, an age-structured SEIS epidemic model with infectivity in incubative period is formulated and studied. The explicit expression of the basic reproduction number R0 is obtained. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1, at least one endemic equilibrium exists if R0 > 1. The stability conditions of endemic equilibrium are also given.

GLOBAL STABILITY IN A TUBERCULOSIS MODEL INCORPORATING TWO LATENT PERIODS

2009 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 357-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUJU LIU
Keyword(s):  
Latent Period ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Tuberculosis Model ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free

A tuberculosis (TB) model with two latent periods, short-term latent period (E1) and long-term latent period (E2), and fast and slow progressions is analyzed. The stability of the unique endemic equilibrium of the model is proved. It turns out that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R0 ≤ 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling on Double Quarantine Process in the Spread and Stability of Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangyadatta Behera ◽  
Aswin Kumar Rauta ◽  
Yerra Shankar Rao ◽  
Sairam Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Analytical Result ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed on the spread and control of corona virus disease2019 (COVID19) to ascertain the impact of pre quarantine for suspected individuals having travel history ,immigrants and new born cases in the susceptible class following the lockdown or shutdown rules and adopted the post quarantine process for infected class. Set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are generated and parameters like natural mortality rate, rate of COVID-19 induced death, rate of immigrants, rate of transmission and recovery rate are integrated in the scheme. A detailed analysis of this model is conducted analytically and numerically. The local and global stability of the disease is discussed mathematically with the help of Basic Reproduction Number. The ODEs are solved numerically with the help of Runge-Kutta 4th order method and graphs are drawn using MATLAB software to validate the analytical result with numerical simulation. It is found that both results are in good agreement with the results available in the existing literatures. The stability analysis is performed for both disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points. The theorems based on Routh-Hurwitz criteria and Lyapunov function are proved .It is found that the system is locally asymptotically stable at disease free and endemic equilibrium points for basic reproduction number less than one and globally asymptotically stable for basic reproduction number greater than one. Finding of this study suggest that COVID-19 would remain pandemic with the progress of time but would be stable in the long-term if the pre and post quarantine policy for asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are implemented effectively followed by social distancing, lockdown and containment.

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