Demystifying the Bandwagon Effect of Opinion Polls in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Praveen Rai
Keyword(s):  
Bandwagon Effect ◽  
Opinion Polls

Everybody Follows the Crowd?

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Obermaier ◽  
Thomas Koch ◽  
Christian Baden
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
News Coverage ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Bandwagon Effect ◽  
Political News ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Electoral Preferences

Abstract. Opinion polls are a well-established part of political news coverage, especially during election campaigns. At the same time, there has been controversial debate over the possible influences of such polls on voters’ electoral choices. The most prominent influence discussed is the bandwagon effect: It states that voters tend to support the expected winner of an upcoming election, and use polls to determine who the likely winner will be. This study investigated the mechanisms underlying the effect. In addition, we inquired into the role of past electoral performances of a candidate and analyzed how these (as well as polls) are used as heuristic cues for the assessment of a candidate’s personal characteristics. Using an experimental design, we found that both polls and past election results influence participants’ expectations regarding which candidate will succeed. Moreover, higher competence was attributed to a candidate, if recipients believe that the majority of voters favor that candidate. Through this attribution of competence, both information about prior elections and current polls shaped voters’ electoral preferences.

How are Voters Influenced by Opinion Polls? The Effect of Polls on Voting Behavior and Party Sympathy

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Olav Dahlgaard ◽  
Jonas Hedegaard Hansen ◽  
Kasper M. Hansen ◽  
Martin V. Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Bandwagon Effect ◽  
Positive Direction ◽  
Underdog Effect ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Types Of Information ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

AbstractSimilar to all other types of information, public opinion polls can influence public opinion. We present two hypotheses to understand how polls affect public opinion: the bandwagon and the underdog effect. The bandwagon effect claims that voters “jump on the bandwagon,” which means that if a party is gaining in the polls, the party will gain additional support from the voters, and vice versa if the party is losing in the polls. The underdog effect suggests that if a party is losing in the polls, the party will gain some sympathy votes to offset this loss. We use a survey experiment to test the two hypotheses. We find evidence of the bandwagon effect, and the effect is strongest in the positive direction. When voters learn that a party is gaining in the polls, voters will be more likely to vote for it. There is also some evidence for the negative bandwagon effect. We find no evidence for the underdog effect. The effects head in the same direction regardless of the size of the party. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings with regards to a potential ban on publishing opinion polls.

Opinion Polls In Scotland, May 1993-June 1994

1994 ◽  
Vol 8 (First Series (1) ◽  
pp. 125-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
David McCrone
Keyword(s):  
Opinion Polls

Public Opinion Polls on Japan

1950 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Arthur N. Feraru
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Well-being and inequality in comparative perspective: the case of Poland and Ukraine

2019 ◽  
pp. 32-55
Author(s):  
Natalia Kovalisko ◽  
Serhii Makeev
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Surveys ◽  
Cheap Labour ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Socio-economic trajectories of Poland and Ukraine have been considerably diverging since the last decade of the 20th century. The former has been advancing and catching up with Western European countries in terms of the quality of life — whereas in Ukraine, the 1990s recession gave way to unsustainable economic growth, which interrupted in the second half of the 2000s and in the 2010s. The comparison of official statistics, along with the data of household surveys and public opinion polls, makes it possible to conclude that a progressive and sustainable transition from a command economy to free market, as exemplified by Poland, is accompanied by moderate deepening of economic inequality. However, an abnormal transition (deviating from the “Polish rule”) entails excessive concentration of wealth and gives rise to corruption as a mechanism of income redistribution among different categories of population. This also results in a more noticeable stratification of opportunies for meeting vital and existential needs. Owing to a large proportion of shadow economy and undeclared work, Ukrainians remain a source of cheap labour in both the domestic and international labour markets; in addition, a persistent subculture of tax evasion is being formed in this country.

From Opinion Polls to Science

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-102
Author(s):  
Balázs Kapitány
Keyword(s):  
Opinion Polls

The Influence of Modern Party System on the Development of Parliamentarism in Russia: Institutional, Political and Psychological Aspects

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 266-273
Author(s):  
Ivan S. Palitai
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Party System ◽  
Psychological Aspects ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
The People ◽  
Voting System ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Opinion Polls

The article is devoted to the modern Russian party system. In the first part of the article, the author shows the historical features of the parties formation in Russia and analyzes the reasons for the low turnout in the elections to the State Duma in 2016. According to the author the institutional reasons consist in the fact that the majority of modern political parties show less and less ability to produce new ideas, and the search for meanings is conducted on the basis of the existing, previously proposed sets of options. Parties reduce the topic of self-identification in party rhetoric, narrowing it down to “branded” ideas or focusing on the image of the leader. In addition, the author shows the decrease in the overall political activity of citizens after the 2011 elections, and points out that the legislation amendments led to the reduction of the election campaigns duration and changes in the voting system itself. The second part of the article is devoted to the study of the psychological aspects of the party system. The author presents the results of the investigation of images of the parties as well as the results of the population opinion polls, held by the centers of public opinion study. On the basis of this data, the author concludes that according to the public opinion the modern party system is ineffective, and the parties don’t have real political weight, which leads to the decrease of the interest in their activities and confidence in them. The author supposes that all this may be the consequence of the people’s fatigue from the same persons in politics, but at the same time the electorate’s desire to see new participants in political processes is formulated rather vaguely, since, according to the people, this might not bring any positive changes.

Cost- und Monitoring-Projekt: Zwei neue forstliche Meinungsumfragen im Vergleich | The Cost- and Monitoring-Projects: A Comparison of Two New Forestry Opinion Polls

2000 ◽  
Vol 151 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Wild-Eck ◽  
Willi Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Forest Policy ◽  
Forest Economics ◽  
Positive Attitudes ◽  
Federal Institute ◽  
Swiss Confederation ◽  
Institute Of Technology ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Opinion Polls

Two large-scale surveys looking at attitudes towards forests, forestry and forest policy in the second half ofthe nineties have been carried out. This work was done on behalf of the Swiss Confederation by the Chair of Forest Policy and Forest Economics of the Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich. Not only did the two studies use very different methods, but the results also varied greatly as far as infrastructure and basic conditions were concerned. One of the main differences between the two studies was the fact that the first dealt only with mountainous areas, whereas the second was carried out on the whole Swiss population. The results of the studies reflect these differences:each produced its own specific findings. Where the same (or similar) questions were asked, the answers highlight not only how the attitudes of those questioned differ, but also views that they hold in common. Both surveys showed positive attitudes towards forests in general, as well as a deep-seated appreciation ofthe forest as a recreational area, and a positive approach to tending. Detailed results of the two surveys will be available in the near future.

Growing Inequality and Public Awareness of Inequality in the States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Franko ◽  
Christopher Witko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Perceptions Of Inequality ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Here the authors present the variation that exists in income inequality across the states, and variation in public awareness or concern about income inequality as measured by public opinion polls. Though politicians may decide to tackle income inequality even in the absence of public concern about inequality, the authors argue that government responses are more likely when and where there is a growing awareness of, and concern about, inequality, which is confirmed in the analyses in this book. To examine this question in subsequent chapters, a novel measure of public awareness of rising state inequality is developed. Using these estimates, this chapter shows that the growth in the public concern about inequality responds in part to objective increases in inequality, but also that state political conditions, particularly mass partisanship, shape perceptions of inequality.

Public Opinion Polls

1944 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 124
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls
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