Analysis of the results of presidential elections in the US agglomerations in the XXI century

In the second half of the 20th century, the USA faced the problem of polarizing society. It is expressed, among other things, in political preferences. With the development of transport infrastructure and income increase, Americans began to migrate more often, choosing for residence areas with people with similar politic views. Such migrations form electorally homogeneous regions, which may eventually lead to isolationism and even tribalism. This phenomenon is called “The Big Sort”. The study proposes to identify the dynamics of polarization of the American nation, as well as agglomerations with different electoral preferences using a new quantitative method – Partisan Voting Index.

Terrorism and Migration: An Overview

This article provides an overview of the literature on the relationship between terrorism and migration. It discusses whether and how (1) migration may be a cause of terrorism, (2) terrorism may influence natives' attitudes towards immigration and their electoral preferences and (3) terrorism may lead to more restrictive migration policies and how these in turn may serve as effective counter-terrorism tools. A review of the empirical literature on the migration–terrorism nexus indicates that (1) there is little evidence that more migration unconditionally leads to more terrorist activity, especially in Western countries, (2) terrorism has electoral and political (but sometimes short-lived) ramifications, for example, as terrorism promotes anti-immigrant resentment and (3) the effectiveness of stricter migration policies in deterring terrorism is rather limited, while terrorist attacks lead to more restrictive migration policies.

Did Polish Bishops Support Andrzej Duda in the Presidential Campaign in 2020? Analysis of Institutional Messages of the Polish Episcopal Conference

The aim of the article is to increase the cognitive value in the area of political communication of Polish bishops during the presidential campaign in Poland in 2020, in particular to answer the question whether the Polish Episcopal Conference supported President Andrzej Duda politically in his candidacy for re-election. The research applied the analysis and synthesis method supplemented with elements of hermeneutics. The Polish Episcopal Conference remained an entity not politically involved at the level of institutional communiqués and did not support any of the candidates applying for the office of President of the Republic of Poland in 2020. The issue for further political and media research remains that of complementary forms of communication of the ecclesial institution and the way of expressing one's own electoral preferences, for example through the Catholic media.

Electoral Preferences Among Multiethnic Voters in Africa

Intermarriage is transforming Africa’s ethnic landscape. In several countries on the continent more than a fifth of all marriages now cut across ethnic lines. As a result, there is a growing population of multiethnic citizens who descend from diverse family lineages. The growth of Africa’s mixed population has the potential to affect politics in a variety of potentially far-reaching ways. In this article, we focus on one possible implication by examining the electoral preferences of multiethnic voters in contexts where ethnic bloc voting is commonplace. Drawing on survey data from Malawi and Kenya, we find that mixed individuals are less likely to support the party associated with their stated ethnic group, relative to mono-ethnics. We outline several possible explanations related to identity measurement, the link between identities and preferences, and social networks.

Do Black Politicians Matter? Evidence from Reconstruction

This paper exploits the history of Reconstruction after the American Civil War to estimate the effect of politician race on public finance. While the effect of black politicians is positive and significant, black officials may be endogenous to electoral preferences for redistribution. I therefore use the number of free blacks in the antebellum era (1860) as an instrument for black political leaders during Reconstruction. Instrumental variables (IV) estimates show that an additional black official increased per capita county tax revenue by $0.20, more than an hour’s wage at the time. The effect was not persistent, however, disappearing entirely once black politicians were removed from office at Reconstruction’s end. Consistent with the stated policy objectives of black officials, I find positive effects of black politicians on land tenancy and black literacy. These results suggest that black political leaders had large effects on public finance and individual outcomes over and above electoral preferences.