Abstract
The alarming vulnerability of low-lying sandy beaches to the acceleration of global sea level rise has been confirmed in the recent IPCC AR6 report. The situation is worsened by increasing coastal erosion, resulting in additional shoreline retreat of sandy beaches along several semi-arid urban coastal areas around the globe. The additional shoreline retreats from erosion are indicative of the rising imbalance in coastal sedimentary processes, which are a direct consequence of changes in precipitation patterns, urban growth, and change in land use. To quantify the magnitude and timescale of both coastal erosion and sea-level rise (SLR) in generating shoreline retreat of sandy beaches in semi-arid urban areas, we combine photogrammetric and statistical methods to measure and forecast the decadal evolution of these coastlines using two well-characterized sites that are hypothesized herein to be globally representative of these types of coasts undergoing rapid urban growth. We use multi-decadal shoreline positioning and land use classification surveys of the Southern California (SC, USA) and the Hammamet-North (HAM, Tunisia) beaches from aerial and orbital photogrammetric images, combined with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, for the period from 1985 to 2018. Our results suggest that the current average shoreline retreat rates of sandy beaches range from -0.75 to -1.24 m/yr in SC and from -0.21 to -4.49 m/yr in HAM under similar aridity, land coverage and precipitation patterns. The observed decadal changes in shoreline positions along these semi-arid urban coastal areas are found to be accentuated by anthropogenic drivers associated with extensive urbanization, causing sediment imbalance at the coastline, adding up to the effect of the accelerating SLR. We assess that ~81% and 57% of the observed shoreline retreat was due to SLR, and 19% to 43% due to coastal erosion from urban growth along SC and HAM beaches, respectively. Using these measured rates, we establish a semi-empirical numerical model that combines urban growth and the observed shoreline retreat rate to forecast retreat rates through 2100 for both of our study areas, inferred herein to be representative of other global semi-arid urban coasts. Our model suggests that future average total shoreline retreat rates, accounting for both urban growth and SLR, range from -2 to -4 m/yr for SC and HAM sandy beaches, respectively, through 2100. The above suggests that if no mitigation is made, by 2100 the cumulative shoreline retreat in these urban areas could significantly exceed the Global Scale Assessment Model’s [46] cumulative projected average retreat of -30 m, confirming the alarming vulnerability of the semi-arid coastal urban areas that would need intensive and costly beach nourishment to control increasing shoreline erosion.
The Shoreline Retreat and Spatial Analysis over the Coastal Water of Belawan