An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease

Abstract Background Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Methods We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named “the random collision model”, and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number ( R 0 ), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. Results Once the R 0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R 0 =3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R 0 , TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and -0.27, respectively. Conclusions The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

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An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease

10.21203/rs.2.14142/v5 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Zuiyuan Guo ◽

Shuang Xu ◽

Libo Tong ◽

Botao Dai ◽

Yuandong Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Attack Rate ◽

General Pattern ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Developmental Trend ◽

Collision Model ◽

Military Camp ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Methods We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named “the random collision model”, and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number ( R 0 ), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. Results Once the R 0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R 0 =3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R 0 , TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and -0.27, respectively. Conclusions The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

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An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease

10.21203/rs.2.14142/v6 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Zuiyuan Guo ◽

Shuang Xu ◽

Libo Tong ◽

Botao Dai ◽

Yuandong Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Attack Rate ◽

General Pattern ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Developmental Trend ◽

Collision Model ◽

Military Camp ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Methods We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named “the random collision model”, and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number ( R 0 ), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. Results Once the R 0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R 0 =3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R 0 , TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and -0.27, respectively. Conclusions The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

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An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease

10.21203/rs.2.14142/v3 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Zuiyuan Guo ◽

Shuang Xu ◽

Libo Tong ◽

Botao Dai ◽

Yuandong Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Attack Rate ◽

General Pattern ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Developmental Trend ◽

Collision Model ◽

Military Camp ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the spreading pattern of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.Methods We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named “the random collision model”, and the effects of factors, such as the basic reproductive number (R0), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR), on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. Results Once the R0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R0=3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median of the attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and the R0, TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and -0.27, respectively. Conclusions The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows more flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

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An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease

10.21203/rs.2.14142/v2 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Zuiyuan Guo ◽

Shuang Xu ◽

Libo Tong ◽

Botao Dai ◽

Yuandong Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Attack Rate ◽

General Pattern ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Developmental Trend ◽

Collision Model ◽

Military Camp ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often take place in crowded places. To understand the spreading pattern of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for the targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.Methods We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named “the random collision model”, and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number (R0), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between the onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. Results Once the R0 exceeds 1.5, the median attack rate increases sharply; when R0=3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increases gradually and eventually remains stable. If the IOI exceeds 2.3 days, the median attack rate will also increase dramatically. If the IR exceeds 0.5, the median of the attack rate nears zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days (95% CI: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and the R0, TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and -0.27, respectively. Conclusion The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows more flexibility in the settings of the exposure population’s activities and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering the exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

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An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease

10.21203/rs.2.14142/v4 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Zuiyuan Guo(Former Corresponding Author) ◽

Shuang Xu ◽

Libo Tong ◽

Botao Dai ◽

Yuandong Liu(New Corresponding Author) ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Attack Rate ◽

General Pattern ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Developmental Trend ◽

Collision Model ◽

Military Camp ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.Methods We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named “the random collision model”, and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number (R0), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. Results Once the R0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R0=3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R0, TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and -0.27, respectively. Conclusions The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

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Huanglongbing Model under the Control Strategy of Discontinuous Removal of Infected Trees

Symmetry ◽

10.3390/sym13071164 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (7) ◽

pp. 1164

Author(s):

Weiwei Ling ◽

Pinxia Wu ◽

Xiumei Li ◽

Liangjin Xie

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Global Stability ◽

Control Strategy ◽

Theoretical Basis ◽

Dynamic Properties ◽

Transmission Mechanism ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Vector Borne ◽

Citrus Trees

By using differential equations with discontinuous right-hand sides, a dynamic model for vector-borne infectious disease under the discontinuous removal of infected trees was established after understanding the transmission mechanism of Huanglongbing (HLB) disease in citrus trees. Through calculation, the basic reproductive number of the model can be attained and the properties of the model are discussed. On this basis, the existence and global stability of the calculated equilibria are verified. Moreover, it was found that different I0 in the control strategy cannot change the dynamic properties of HLB disease. However, the lower the value of I0, the fewer HLB-infected citrus trees, which provides a theoretical basis for controlling HLB disease and reducing expenditure.

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Infectious Disease infectious disease basic reproductive number Modeling infectious disease modeling

Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology ◽

10.1007/978-1-4419-0851-3_539 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 5347-5357 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Angela R. McLean

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Modeling ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Infectious Disease Modeling

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AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL WITH MULTIPLE ENDEMIC STATES

Journal of Biological System ◽

10.1142/s0218339015400021 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 23 (supp01) ◽

pp. S17-S31

Author(s):

GEISER VILLAVICENCIO-PULIDO ◽

IGNACIO BARRADAS ◽

LUNA BEATRIZ

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Backward Bifurcation ◽

Epidemiological Model ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Force Of Infection

We present a model describing the dynamics of an infectious disease for which the force of infection is diminished through a reaction of the susceptible to the number of infected individuals. We show that, even though the structure of the model is a simple one, different kinds of backward bifurcation can appear for values of the basic reproductive number bigger than one. Under some conditions on the parameters, multiple endemic equilibria may appear for values of the basic reproductive number less or greater than one.

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Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 68

Author(s):

Chaolong Wang ◽

Li Liu ◽

Xingjie Hao ◽

Huan Guo ◽

Qi Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Attack Rate ◽

Healthcare Workers ◽

Age Groups ◽

Credible Interval ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Demographic Groups ◽

Individual Level ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics ◽

The Impact ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDWe described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China.METHODSIndividual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions.RESULTSThe median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age. The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.CONCLUSIONSConsiderable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.

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