Dynamics of a stochastic population model with Allee effect and jumps

This paper is concerned with a stochastic population model with Allee effect and jumps. First, we show the global existence of almost surely positive solution to the model. Next, exponential extinction and persistence in mean are discussed. Then, we investigated the global attractivity and stability in distribution. At last, some numerical results are given. The results show that if attack rate $a$ is in the intermediate range or very large, the population will go extinct. Under the premise that attack rate $a$ is less than growth rate $r$, if the noise intensity or jump is relatively large, the population will become extinct; on the contrary, the population will be persistent in mean. The results in this paper generalize and improve the previous related results.

The Rise in Norovirus-Related Acute Gastroenteritis During the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southern China

Background: There has been a significant decline in the morbidity of almost all infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, while the incidence of norovirus-related acute gastroenteritis declined in Guangzhou, China during the initial period of the pandemic, incidence increased significantly once the new school year began in September 2020.Methods: Norovirus-related acute gastroenteritis clusters and outbreaks were assessed in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2020. Medians and interquartile ranges were compared between groups using the Mann–Whitney U-test, and attack rates were calculated.Results: While 78,579 cases of infectious diarrhea were reported from 2015 to 2019, with an average of 15,716 cases per year, only 12,065 cases of infectious diarrhea were reported in 2020. The numbers of sporadic cases and outbreaks reported from January to August 2020 were lower than the average numbers reported during the same time period each year from 2015 to 2019 but began to increase in September 2020. The number of cases in each reported cluster ranged from 10 to 70 in 2020, with a total of 1,280 cases and an average attack rate of 5.85%. The median number of reported cases, the cumulative number of cases, and the attack rate were higher than the average number reported each year from 2015 to 2019. The intervention time in 2020 was also higher than the average intervention time reported during 2015–2019. The main norovirus genotypes circulating in Guangzhou during 2015–2020 included genogroup 2 type 2 (GII.2) (n = 79, 26.69%), GII.17 (n = 36, 12.16%), GII.3 (n = 27, 9.12%), GII.6 (n = 8, 2.7%), GII.4 Sydney_2012 (n = 7, 2.36%), and GII.4 (n = 6, 2.03%).Conclusions: Our findings illustrate the importance of maintaining epidemiological surveillance for viral gastroenteritis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Local disease prevention and control institutions need to devote sufficient human resources to control norovirus clusters.

Study of Risk Factors for Total Attack Rate and Transmission Dynamics of Norovirus Outbreaks, Jiangsu Province, China, From 2012 to 2018

Objective: To describe the epidemiological characteristics of norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province, utilize the total attack rate (TAR) and transmissibility (Runc) as the measurement indicators of the outbreak, and a statistical difference in risk factors associated with TAR and transmissibility was compared. Ultimately, this study aimed to provide scientific suggestions to develop the most appropriate prevention and control measures.Method: We collected epidemiological data from investigation reports of all norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2018 and performed epidemiological descriptions, sequenced the genes of the positive specimens collected that were eligible for sequencing, created a database and calculated the TAR, constructed SEIAR and SEIARW transmission dynamic models to calculate Runc, and performed statistical analyses of risk factors associated with the TAR and Runc.Results: We collected a total of 206 reported outbreaks, of which 145 could be used to calculate transmissibility. The mean TAR in was 2.6% and the mean Runc was 12.2. The epidemiological characteristics of norovirus outbreaks showed an overall increasing trend in the number of norovirus outbreaks from 2012 to 2018; more outbreaks in southern Jiangsu than northern Jiangsu; more outbreaks in urban areas than in rural areas; outbreaks occurred mostly in autumn and winter. Most of the sites where outbreaks occurred were schools, especially primary schools. Interpersonal transmission accounted for the majority. Analysis of the genotypes of noroviruses revealed that the major genotypes of the viruses changed every 3 years, with the GII.2 [P16] type of norovirus dominating from 2016 to 2018. Statistical analysis of TAR associated with risk factors found statistical differences in all risk factors, including time (year, month, season), location (geographic location, type of settlement, type of premises), population (total number of susceptible people at the outbreak site), transmission route, and genotype (P < 0.05). Statistical analysis of transmissibility associated with risk factors revealed that only transmissibility was statistically different between sites.Conclusions: The number of norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province continues to increase during the follow-up period. Our findings highlight the impact of different factors on norovirus outbreaks and identify the key points of prevention and control in Jiangsu Province.

A review of COVID-19 transmission dynamics and clinical outcomes on cruise ships worldwide, January to October 2020

Background Cruise ships provide an ideal setting for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, given the socially dense exposure environment. Aim To provide a comprehensive review of COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships. Methods PubMed was searched for COVID-19 cases associated with cruise ships between January and October 2020. A list of cruise ships with COVID-19 was cross-referenced with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s list of cruise ships associated with a COVID-19 case within 14 days of disembarkation. News articles were also searched for epidemiological information. Narratives of COVID-19 outbreaks on ships with over 100 cases are presented. Results Seventy-nine ships and 104 unique voyages were associated with COVID-19 cases before 1 October 2020. Nineteen ships had more than one voyage with a case of COVID-19. The median number of cases per ship was three (interquartile range (IQR): 1–17.8), with two notable outliers: the Diamond Princess and the Ruby Princess, which had 712 and 907 cases, respectively. The median attack rate for COVID-19 was 0.2% (IQR: 0.03–1.5), although this distribution was right-skewed with a mean attack rate of 3.7%; 25.9% (27/104) of voyages had at least one COVID-19-associated death. Outbreaks involving only crew occurred later than outbreaks involving guests and crew. Conclusions In the absence of mitigation measures, COVID-19 can spread easily on cruise ships in a susceptible population because of the confined space and high-density contact networks. This environment can create superspreader events and facilitate international spread.

Risk of Secondary Household Transmission of COVID-19 from Health Care Workers in a Hospital in Spain

Background: Hospital health care workers are at high risk of developing COVID-19 and transmitting the disease to their family upon returning home; the aim here is to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 in household contacts of health care workers and their transmission risk factors. Material and Methods: COVID-19 cases in the health care workers of an academic hospital in Pamplona, Spain, from 2 March to 26 May 2020, were followed up. The secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated from cases in household contacts of index cases and their risk factors by Poisson regression. Results: 89 index cases were studied from 99 notified cases in health care workers (89.0%), excluding secondary cases or those who lived alone. Forty-six secondary cases confirmed by the laboratory were found among 326 household contacts, a secondary attack rate of 14.11% (95% CI 10.75–18.31), and 33 household contacts with acute infection symptoms without microbiologic confirmation 10.12% (95% CI 7.30–13.87). Considering all the cases, the secondary attack rate was 27.3 (95% CI 22.75–32.38). Risk factors were the gender and profession of the index case, the number of people living in the household, and the number of persons per bedroom. When the index case health worker used a single room, it had a protective effect, with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.493 (95% CI 0.246–0.985); Conclusions: The secondary attack rate found among household contacts of health care workers is high. The preventive isolation of health care workers in individual rooms in their house may reduce the transmission in their families.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC Transmission in Danish Households

The Omicron variant of concern (VOC) is a rapidly spreading variant of SARS-CoV-2 that is likely to overtake the previously dominant Delta VOC in many countries by the end of 2021. We estimated the transmission dynamics following the spread of Omicron VOC within Danish households during December 2021. We used data from Danish registers to estimate the household secondary attack rate (SAR). Among 11,937 households (2,225 with the Omicron VOC), we identified 6,397 secondary infections during a 1-7 day follow-up period. The SAR was 31\% and 21\% in households with the Omicron and Delta VOC, respectively. We found an increased transmission for unvaccinated individuals, and a reduced transmission for booster-vaccinated individuals, compared to fully vaccinated individuals. Comparing households infected with the Omicron to Delta VOC, we found an 1.17 (95\%-CI: 0.99-1.38) times higher SAR for unvaccinated, 2.61 times (95\%-CI: 2.34-2.90) higher for fully vaccinated and 3.66 (95\%-CI: 2.65-5.05) times higher for booster-vaccinated individuals, demonstrating strong evidence of immune evasiveness of the Omicron VOC. Our findings confirm that the rapid spread of the Omicron VOC primarily can be ascribed to the immune evasiveness rather than an inherent increase in the basic transmissibility.

Epidemiology of mumps outbreaks and the impact of an additional dose of MMR vaccine for outbreak control in regional Queensland, Australia, 2017–2018

Background In recent years, there have been ongoing outbreaks of mumps reported in Northern and North-Western Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, Australia. We aimed to define the epidemiology of mumps outbreaks in Central Queensland, Australia between October 2017 and October 2018 and evaluate the effectiveness of an additional dose of measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. Methods A retrospective case control study was conducted, including outbreak investigations with laboratory-confirmed cases of mumps and subsequent comparison with matched controls. We analysed mandatory notifications from the Queensland Health Notifiable Conditions System database and immunisation information from the Queensland Health Vaccination Information and Admin System (VIVAS) and the Australian Immunisation Register. Results Between October 2017 and October 2018, there were 93 cases of mumps reported in Central Queensland with three distinct outbreaks: a discrete Indigenous community; a correctional facility; and a boarding school. Among all cases, 74 (79.6%) were fully vaccinated and 14 (15.1%) were partially vaccinated with MMR vaccine. Eighty-six cases (92.5%) were reported among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. In all outbreaks, an additional dose of MMR vaccine was offered with 35.4%, 73.6% and 35.8% of the target population being immunised in the discrete Indigenous community, the correctional facility and the boarding school, respectively. Prior to this additional dose of MMR, the mumps attack rate was 31.0 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 24.2–39.0) per 1000 population, compared to the post-additional dose MMR attack rate of 10.6 (95% CI: 6.7–15.9) per 1000 population. Conclusion An additional or booster dose of MMR should be included as an effective public health intervention strategy, particularly in communal or high-density living conditions to control mumps outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations.

Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norway, November to December 2021

In late November 2021, an outbreak of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 following a Christmas party with 117 attendees was detected in Oslo, Norway. We observed an attack rate of 74% and most cases developed symptoms. As at 13 December, none have been hospitalised. Most participants were 30–50 years old. Ninety-six percent of them were fully vaccinated. These findings corroborate reports that the Omicron variant may be more transmissible, and that vaccination may be less effective in preventing infection compared with Delta.

Epidemiological Indicators of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and Vaccination Effectiveness on the Report of Positive Cases in the Colombian Army

The description of the epidemiological indicators of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), such as the mortality rate (MR), the case fatality rate (CFR), and the attack rate (AR), as well as the geographical distribution and daily case reports, are used to evaluate the impact that this virus has had within the Colombian Army and its health system. As military forces around the world represent the force that defends sovereignty, independence, the integrity of the national territory, and the constitutional order, while maintaining migration controls in blocked border areas during this critical pandemic times, they must carry out strict epidemiological surveillance to control the situation among the servicemen. Up to date, the Colombian Army has faced a very high attack rate (AR = 8.55%) due, among others, to living conditions where active military personnel share bedrooms, bathrooms, and dining facilities, which facilitate the spread of the virus. However, being a mainly young and healthy population, the MR was 1.82 deaths/1,000 ha, while the CFR = 2.13% indexes consistently low if compared with those values reported for the national population. In addition, the effectiveness of vaccination is shown in daily cases of COVID-19, where, for the third peak, the active military population presented a decrease of positive patients compared to the dynamics of national transmission and the total population of the military forces (active, retired, and beneficiaries).