Prediction of late-onset fetal growth restriction using a combined first- and second-trimester screening model in South Chinese infants: a retrospective study
Abstract Background Prediction models for early and late fetal growth restriction (FGR) have been established in many high-income countries. However, prediction models for late FGR in China are limited. This study aimed to develop a simple combined first- and second-trimester prediction model for screening late-onset FGR in South Chinese infants.Methods This retrospective study included 2258 women who had singleton pregnancies and received routine ultrasound scans. Late-onset FGR was defined as a birth weight < the 10th percentile plus abnormal Doppler indices and/or a birth weight below the 3rd percentile after 32 weeks, regardless of the Doppler status. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a prediction model.Results Ninety-three fetuses were identified as late-onset FGR. The significant predictors for late-onset FGR were maternal age, height, weight, and medical history; the second-trimester head circumference (HC)/abdominal circumference (AC) ratio; and the estimated fetal weight (EFW). This model achieved a detection rate (DR) of 52.6% for late-onset FGR at a 10% false positive rate (FPR) (area under the curve (AUC): 0.80, 95%CI 0.76-0.85).Conclusions A multivariate model combining first- and second-trimester default tests can detect 52.6% of cases of late-onset FGR. Further studies with more screening markers are needed to improve the detection rate.