scholarly journals Asymmetric Effects of Capital Flight on Domestic Investment in Nigeria: Evidence from Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
LIONEL EFFIOM ◽  
EMMANUEL UCHE ◽  
OTEI ASUQUO OTEI ◽  
FRANCIS ARCHIBONG EFFIONG
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Ratchet Effect ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Downward Spiral ◽  
Lag Model

Abstract Capital flight is a challenge for many developing countries. The problem is more severe in a nation like Nigeria where domestic investment has been affected. On theoretical grounds, domestic investment should be a decreasing function of capital flight, but is there a possibility that reversals or downturns in capital flight in Nigeria might lead to a decline in investment levels? Put differently, is there a tendency for domestic investment to maintain a downward spiral, a ratchet effect, even in the face of lower levels or magnitude of capital flight? This study is a modest first attempt at investigating these possibilities. Employing the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL), the study finds evidence of asymmetric impact of capital flight on investment undertaken at the national level. However, investment by subnational governments revealed the existence of symmetry, while overall, total public sector investments (by both States and Federal Governments) indicated the existence of asymmetric effects between positive and negative deviations of capital flight. The paper re-echoes the need for the strengthening of institutions at all levels to curb the menace.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Tourist Expenditure Per Capita in Thailand: Potential Implications for Sustainable Tourism

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6550
Author(s):  
Wanvilai Chulaphan ◽  
Jorge Fidel Barahona
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Sustainable Tourism ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Mass Tourism ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Per Capita

Tourism authorities in Thailand have consistently pursued profit-seeking mass tourism, resulting in the detriment of the natural resources in major tourist destinations. In response, sustainable tourism projects centered on preserving the environment have been established but neglect the financial needs of tour operators. The objective of this study was to investigate the determinants of tourist expenditure per capita in Thailand using a dataset consisting of 31 countries from 2010 to 2017. The analysis was based on an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and used a panel estimated generalized least square (ELGS). Generating such knowledge is essential for tourist authorities to develop profitable and sustainable tourism projects in tourist destinations whose natural resources have been affected by profit-seeking tourism. The tourism expenditure per capita is positively affected by word of mouth, income, and the rising prices in other major tourist destinations in Asia. However, it was negatively affected by relative levels of price and corruption. Sustainable tourism projects can be used to develop activities that will help distinguish Thailand from other tourism destinations in Asia. However, in implementing these sustainable tourism initiatives, the mark-up should be minimized to keep tourist prices in Thailand competitive.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals Poverty and labour market institutions in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-290
Author(s):  
Giorgio Liotti ◽  
Rosaria Canale
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Labour Market Regulation ◽  
Lag Model

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of flexibility in the labour market on workers? monetary poverty in 15 European countries in the time span 2005-2016. We estimate how the labour market regulation index (LMRI) affects workers? monetary poverty through two empirical exercises: in the first one, we use an autoregressive distributed lag model and, in the second one, the generalized method of moments model. The results suggest that greater flexibility of the labour market is positively correlated with greater monetary poverty among employed people. The result does not change significantly when introducing the effect of the economic crisis and the interaction effect between the economic crisis and the LMRI. Therefore, we conclude that the outcome should be considered to be noticeable whatever the macroeconomic conditions occurring in the labour market.

scholarly journals Comparison the Error Rate of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) (Case study: Forecast of Export Quantities in DIY)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-177
Author(s):  
Dewi Kusuma Ningrum ◽  
Sugiyarto Surono
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model

Forecasting is estimating the size or number of something in the future. Regression model that enters current independent variable value, and lagged value is called distributed-lag model, if it enters one or more lagged value, it is called autoregressive. Koyck method is used for dynamic model which the lagged length is unknown, for the known lagged length it is used the Almon method. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) is a method that explains every variable in the model depend on the lag movement from the variable itself and all the others variable. This research aimed to explain the application of Autoregressive distributed-lag model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method for the forecasting for export amount in DIY. It takes export amount in DIY and inflation data, kurs, and Indonesias foreign exchange reserve. Forecasting formation: defining Koyck and Almon distributed-lag dynamic model, then the best model is chosen and distribution-lag dynamic forecasting is performed. After that it is performed stationary test, co-integration test, optimal lag examination, granger causality test, parameter estimation, VAR model stability, and performs forecasting with VAR method. The forecasting result shows MAPE value from ARDL method obtained is 0.475812%, while MAPE value from VAR method is 0.464473%. Thus it can be concluded that Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method is more effective to be used in case study of export amount in DIY forecasting. Keywords: Koyck; Almon; Lag; Autoregressive Distributed-Lag; Vector Autoregressive;

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