Desertification risk fuels spatial polarization in ‘affected’ and ‘unaffected’ landscapes in Italy

Southern Europe is a hotspot for desertification risk because of the intimate impact of soil deterioration, landscape transformations, rising human pressure, and climate change. In this context, large-scale empirical analyses linking landscape fragmentation with desertification risk assume that increasing levels of land vulnerability to degradation are associated with significant changes in landscape structure. Using a traditional approach of landscape ecology, this study evaluates the spatial structure of a simulated landscape based on different levels of vulnerability to land degradation using 15 metrics calculated at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, early-2010s) in Italy. While the (average) level of land vulnerability increased over time almost in all Italian regions, vulnerable landscapes demonstrated to be increasingly fragmented, as far as the number of homogeneous patches and mean patch size are concerned. The spatial balance in affected and unaffected areas—typically observed in the 1960s—was progressively replaced with an intrinsically disordered landscape, and this process was more intense in regions exposed to higher (and increasing) levels of land degradation. The spread of larger land patches exposed to intrinsic degradation brings to important consequences since (1) the rising number of hotspots may increase the probability of local-scale degradation processes, and (2) the buffering effect of neighbouring (unaffected) land can be less effective on bigger hotspots, promoting a downward spiral toward desertification.

The Potential Impact of Adjunct Digital Tools and Technology to Help Distressed and Suicidal Men: An Integrative Review

Suicidal men feel the need to be self-reliant and that they cannot find another way out of relationship or socioeconomic issues. Suicide prevention is of crucial importance worldwide. The much higher rate of suicide in men engenders action. The prelude is a subjective experience that can be very isolating and severely distressing. Men may not realize a change in their thinking and behaviors, which makes it more difficult to seek and get help, thereby interrupting a “downward spiral”. Stoicism often prevents men from admitting to their personal struggle. The lack of “quality” connections and “non-tailored” therapies has led to a high number of men “walking out” on traditional clinical approaches. But there are complicated relationships in motivations and formative behaviors of suicide with regards to emotional state, psychiatric disorders, interpersonal life events and suicidal behavior method selection. Middle-aged and older men have alternated as the most at-risk of suicide. There is no one solution that applies to all men, but digital tools may be of assistance (e.g., video conferences, social networks, telephone calls, and emails). Digital interventions require higher levels of effectiveness for distress and suicidality but self-guided approaches may be the most suitable for men especially where linked with an integrated online suicide prevention platform (e.g., quick response with online chats, phone calls, and emails). Furthermore, technology-enabled models of care offer promise to advance appropriate linking to mental health services through better and faster understanding of the specific needs of individuals (e.g., socio-cultural) and the type and level of suicidality experienced. Long-term evidence for suicidality and its evaluation may benefit from progressing human computer-interaction and providing impetus for an eminent integrated digital platform.

Niger self-defence groups will hasten violence spiral

Significance Such attacks reinforce the sense of vulnerability and desire revenge that give rise to such self-defence groups in the first place, and contribute to a downward spiral in security in the Tillaberi and Tahoua regions. Impacts Governor and prefect reshuffles will not be enough to arrest the rising tide of violence. Western Niger will remain at crisis levels of food insecurity through mid-2022, due to the violence and other long-term vulnerabilities. Mali’s own spreading violence will hinder Niger from containing its own.

Queerly, Hopelessly, Precariously

This paper reimagines a queer politics of globalization through three contemporary Taiwanese films. Lesbian Factory (2010) and Rainbow Popcorn (2013) were made by labor activists and focused on a landmark labor protest organized by Filipina migrant workers in Taiwan. However, during the filming process, the documentaries inadvertently turn into productions about migration, workers' protests, and new forms of queer intimacy and relationality forged among people who are on the move. Thanatos, Drunk (2015) is a feature film that centers on those who are forced to move, those without mobility, and those who have failed to move even when doing so is necessary for one's survival. Whether queer or straight in the film, everyone is on a downward spiral in life due to the neoliberal restructuring of the global economy. Drawing from queer theories of negativity, affect, and relationality, this paper rethinks queerness in regard to migration by establishing connections between queers' and migrants' negative relation to space and movement. Further, it cautions against the rhetoric of occupation in the Occupy Wall Street movement. It critiques the tendency to valorize mobility, capacity, and the logic of spatial expansion embedded in that of “occupy,” as well as the same logic that underlines contemporary Chinese nationalist and triumphalist thinking dominating large parts of Chinese and Sinophone locations. Ultimately, this paper is a critical intervention from the position of geopolitical and academic marginality. It reimagines the global politics of resistance against neoliberal economic order, the resurgence of nationalism, and imperialist ambition by placing subjects of resistance on the other side of mobility, spatial expansion, hope, and capacity—where new forms of intimacy and relationality also emerge.

Modelling the Efficiency of TGARCH Model in Nigeria Inflation Rate

In general, volatility is known and referred to as variance and it is a degree of spread of a random variable from its mean value. Two volatility models were considered in this paperwork. Nigeria's inflation rate was modeled by applying the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Threshold GARCH models. Symmetric and asymmetric models captured the most commonly stylized facts about the rate of inflation in Nigeria like leverage effects and irregularities in clustering and were studied. These models are GARCH (1,1) and TGARCH (1,1). This work estimated the comparison of volatility models in term of best fit and forecasting. The result showed that TGARCH (1,1) model outperformed GARCH (1,1) models in term of best fit, because it has the least AIC of 2.590438. We forecasted to see the level of volatility using Theils Inequality Coefficient and the result shows that TGARCH has the highest Theils Inequality Coefficient of 0.065075 which makes the TGARCH model better than the GARCH model in this research. From the initial and modified sample static forecast, it was discovered that the return on inflation is stable and shows that volatility slows towards the end of the month, we can see a downward spiral, which means price reaction to economic crisis led to lower production, lower wages, decreased demand, and still lower prices.

Globalization and the Burden of Disease

More equitable and need-oriented funding of health services and research would safeguard everyone’s health. Worldwide health expenditures on health disproportionately address problems of the well-off, while research on diseases like malaria affecting hundreds of millions of mostly low-income people are underfunded. Nor are sufficient resources devoted to mental illness, traffic injuries, and natural disasters. As people in low-income countries live longer, chronic, non-communicable, and lifestyle diseases add to long-standing burdens of infectious and parasitic disease, and maternal and child health. This epidemiological transition calls for universal access to health services, which will also improve these countries’ ability to detect and respond to infectious diseases like the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization, coordinator of global epidemic response, needs to be freed from its downward spiral of decreased effectiveness, frozen funding, and increased politicization. Statistics on global causes of death and disability elevate the importance of social determinants of health.

Barriers to Transnational Passenger Rail Services in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina – A Qualitative Perspective

Railway infrastructures and services in the countries of former Yugoslavia have been in a downward spiral since the early 1990s. There have been scattered investments to lift services up to appealing levels after the war, but a continuous downward trend persists in all important performance indicators. After war-attributed abandonment, numerous lines lost services permanently, numbers of services dwindled, especially across borders, and service speeds decreased. This research takes Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina specifically as survey objects. It aims to identify the barriers in these two countries that withheld passenger rail from a positive development as in other European countries during the same period. For this purpose we carried out 11 interviews with stakeholders in various railway-related institutions. The transcripts are analysed qualitatively with thematic analysis to gain an overview of organisational and institutional barriers for development of railways. This is followed by a cause-effect analysis with Causal Loop Diagramming. The result: ad-hoc decision-making is clearly connected to the insignificance of railways. As immediate measures to counter the downward spiral by means of strategic long term planning, we identify (1) service benchmarking, (2) a clear vision for improvement of service quality, and (3) empowerment of ministries in a long term.

Understanding the pharmacology of heart failure

Heart failure (HF) is a common clinical syndrome with ever-increasing prevalence in the Western world. It is associated with extensive morbidity and mortality, as well as being a significant burden on global healthcare systems. It is due to impairment of ventricular filling or contraction, resulting in a constellation of physical symptoms and signs, primarily due to salt and water retention. An understanding of the pharmacological options to manage the condition is imperative to quickly alleviate symptoms and avert a rapidly progressive downward spiral, improving not only quality but also quantity of life.

Mental health problems and COVID-19 – which came first, the chicken or the egg?

It was very clear that the COVID-19 pandemic will have an impact on mental health from the first day that it was declared.However, the scale and magnitude of the impact changed as the pandemic persisted, progressed, and transformed. After a year of social distancing, distance education, and virtual concerts, the societal fabric has changed to such an extent that it will most likely produce a long lasting impact on public mental health. The presentation will focus on the indicators of public mental health obtained from the SI-PANDA research, a bi-weekly web panel survey with a nationally representative sample of 1000 respondents per each wave of the survey. The 5-item World Health Organization Well-Being Index (WHO-5) was used to measure mental health. A cut-off score of ≤ 50 was used to screen for mental health problems, and a cut-off score ≤28 to screen for major depression. Results of the repeated cross-sectional surveys indicate continuation of trends that were present pre-pandemic. Namely, higher prevalence of mental health problems among people with lower education, adolescents and young adults, people with pre-existing chronic conditions, and people experiencing worsening financial situation during the pandemic. Trends from SI-PANDA research show that the differences (or inequities) in mental health are deepening as the pandemic progresses. People with mental health problems are at greater risk of experiencing worsening mental health during the pandemic as well as experiencing other adverse health outcomes - which are themselves a risk factor for worsening mental health. Is the downward spiral of poor mental health and COVID-19 the story of health inequities or is it a new phenomenon built on top of inequitable society?