scholarly journals A Logistic Regression Model for The Prediction of HBV-Related Cirrhosis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang-Liang Luo ◽  
Zhong-Lin Zhang ◽  
Long Wu ◽  
Diao Wei ◽  
Hao Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Liver Biopsy ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Hematological Parameters ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Result Show ◽  
Chronic Hbv

Abstract Background: Cirrhosis is one of the most severe complications at the late stage of chronic HBV infection. The liver biopsy is the gold standard for the diagnosis of liver cirrhosis. However, a liver biopsy is associated with the risk of severe complications and a high cost. It is therefore necessary to find several biomarkers for the diagnosis of HBV-related cirrhosis. Methods: The research was proceeded to evaluate the diagnostic value of hematological parameters to find the surrogate markers in HBV-related cirrhosis. The research was proceeded on the training set, which was recruited from Zhongnan Hospital, including 102 HBV-related cirrhosis and 102 healthy individuals. The levels of selected hematological parameters were analyzed. The receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to evaluate the diagnostic effectiveness of these parameters. A logistic regression model was built and validated using four validation sets consisting of 261 patients.Results: The result show that the level of RDW, MPV, MPV/PC ratio, PLR and NLR were all significantly higher in HBV-related cirrhosis patients compared to healthy individuals. Most of these parameters owned a moderate AUC in HBV-related cirrhosis patients. However, their diagnostic sensitivities or specificities were unsatisfactory. Therefore, a logistic regression model was built by combining these hematological parameters. The model showed great diagnostic value with the AUC of 0.987, sensitivity of 96.1% and specificity of 95.1%. Besides, the other four validation sets were generated to validate the logistic regression model and all showed good AUC with moderate specificities and sensitivities. Conclusions: The data indicate that the model might be substantially useful for the diagnosis of HBV-related cirrhosis.

scholarly journals A Logistic Regression Model for Noninvasive Prediction of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 153303381984663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang-Liang Luo ◽  
Yuan Rong ◽  
Hao Chen ◽  
Wu-Wen Zhang ◽  
Long Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Hematological Parameters ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Diagnostic Efficiency ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
Platelet Volume ◽  
Model Combining

α-Fetoprotein is commonly used in the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, the diagnostic significance of α-fetoprotein has been questioned because a number of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma are α-fetoprotein negative. It is therefore necessary to develop novel noninvasive techniques for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly when α-fetoprotein level is low or negative. The current study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of hematological parameters to determine which can act as surrogate markers in α-fetoprotein–negative hepatocellular carcinoma. Therefore, a retrospective study was conducted on a training set recruited from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University—including 171 α-fetoprotein–negative patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and 102 healthy individuals. The results show that mean values of mean platelet volume, red blood cell distribution width, mean platelet volume–PC ratio, neutrophils–lymphocytes ratio, and platelet count–lymphocytes ratio were significantly higher in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in comparison to the healthy individuals. Most of these parameters showed moderate area under the curve in α-fetoprotein–negative patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, but their sensitivities or specificities were not satisfactory enough. So, we built a logistic regression model combining multiple hematological parameters. This model presented better diagnostic efficiency with area under the curve of 0.922, sensitivity of 83.0%, and specificity of 93.1%. In addition, the 4 validation sets from different hospitals were used to validate the model. They all showed good area under the curve with satisfactory sensitivities or specificities. These data indicate that the logistic regression model combining multiple hematological parameters has better diagnostic efficiency, and they might be helpful for the early diagnosis for α-fetoprotein–negative hepatocellular carcinoma.

scholarly journals POS1271 PREVALENCE OF JOINT EFFUSION, HYPERPERFUSION AND ENTHESITIS IN YOUNG HEALTHY INDIVIDUALS

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 920.1-920
Author(s):  
J. K. Schreiner ◽  
D. Scheicht ◽  
P. Karakostas ◽  
C. Behning ◽  
P. Preuss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Joint Effusion ◽  
Training Volume ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Sports Activity

Background:The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommends using ultrasound (US) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis in diagnosis (1). In addition, US examination is crucial for detecting enthesitis in the above mentioned rheumatic diseases. However, abnormal findings on US may also occur in healthy individuals as indicated by recent studies focusing on small joints like metacarpophalangeal joint, metatarsophalangeal joint or the elbow. (2,3)Ultrasound assessment of large joints in healthy individuals has not been extensively studied so far, causing a lack of information concerning normal values in musculoskeletal US examination.Objectives:The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of joint effusion, hyperperfusion of the synovia and enthesitis in large and medium-sized joints of healthy individuals.Methods:Ultrasound assessment of shoulder, elbow, wrist, hip, knee and ankle joints as well as corresponding entheseal sites including the Achilles tendon and the plantar aponeurosis was performed in healthy individuals below the age of 30 years. Additionally, participants filled out a survey on their physical activity level, underwent a bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and conducted a supervised weight training to determine their training volume. Prevalence of US findings was calculated, and a binary logistic regression model was applied to determine the association between the present findings and sex, age, handedness, hours of sports activity per week, BMI, amount of skeletal muscle mass (SMM) or training volume of strength training.Results:We included 51 healthy individuals with a mean age of 23.7 years, 52.9% were female with a mean BMI of 22.5 kg/m2. Ultrasound examination detected joint effusion in one joint in 25.5% (n=13), 29.4% (n=15) showed effusion in two of twelve examined joints. Joint effusion in three, four and five joints was detected in 9.8% (n=5), 3.9% (n=2) and 3.9% (n=2) of the cases, respectively. In 27.5% (n=14) of the individuals no joint effusion was observed. The most frequently affected joint was the elbow joint. Synovial hyperperfusion was not detected in any participant. Enthesitis was observed in one, two and three examined entheseal sites in 19.5% (n=10), 5.9% (n=3) and 2% (n=1), respectively. In 72% (n=37) of the examined individuals no pathology of the entheseal sites was found. Hyperperfusion presented to be the most frequent pathology observed in enthesitis (23%), followed by calcification (6%).Binary logistic regression model demonstrated a significant association between reported hours of sports activity per week and the prevalence of effusion in the knee (p = 0.017). The odds of joint effusion in the knee increased with the hours of sports activity by 34.1% (Exp(B)= 1.341, 95%-CI(1.054, 1.705)). Additionally, the odds of enthesitis in any entheseal site increased with BMI (p= 0.015, Exp(B) = 1.407, 95%-CI(1.068, 1.852).Binary logistic regression model did not show any significant association between sex, age, handedness, amount of SMM or training volume of strength training and the prevalence of joint effusion or enthesis pathology in the examined participants.Conclusion:Joint effusion in large and mid-sized joints as well as enthesitis are not only detected in patients with rheumatic diseases but also in healthy individuals. Hours of sports activity and BMI have a significant association with the findings and should be considered during ultrasound examination.References:[1]Colebatch AN, Edwards CJ, Østergaard M, van der Heijde D, Balint PV, D’Agostino M-A, u. a. EULAR recommendations for the use of imaging of the joints in the clinical management of rheumatoid arthritis. Ann Rheum Dis. Juni 2013;72(6):804–14.[2]Padovano I, Costantino F, Breban M, D’Agostino MA. Prevalence of ultrasound synovial inflammatory findings in healthy subjects. Ann Rheum Dis. Oktober 2016;75(10):1819–23.[3]Schäfer VS, Recker F, Vossen D, Ge I, Matuschek E, Hartung W. Prevalence of Elbow Joint Arthritis and Enthesitis in Rheumatoid Arthritis. 2020;11.Disclosure of Interests:Julia Konstanze Schreiner: None declared, Dennis Scheicht: None declared, Pantelis Karakostas: None declared, Charlotte Behning: None declared, Peter Preuss: None declared, Peter Brossart: None declared, Valentin Schäfer Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Novartis, BMS, Chugai, Celgene, Medac, Sanofi, Lilly, Hexal, Pfizer, Janssen, Roche, Schire, Onkowissen, Royal College London, Consultant of: Novartis, Chugai, AbbVie, Celgene, Sanofi, Lilly, Hexal, Pfizer, Amgen, BMS, Roche, Gilead, Medac, Grant/research support from: Novartis, Hexal, Lilly, Roche, Celgene, Universität Bonn

scholarly journals Work absence and multimorbidity in Portugal: results from the 1st National Health Examination Survey

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Matos ◽  
C Matias Dias ◽  
A Félix
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Chronic Diseases ◽  
National Health ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Work Absence ◽  
Health Examination Survey ◽  
Absence From Work ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Studies on the impact of patients with multimorbidity in the absence of work indicate that the number and type of chronic diseases may increase absenteeism and that the risk of absence from work is higher in people with two or more chronic diseases. This study analyzed the association between multimorbidity and greater frequency and duration of work absence in the portuguese population between the ages of 25 and 65 during 2015. Methods This is an epidemiological, observational, cross-sectional study with an analytical component that has its source of information from the 1st National Health Examination Survey. The study analyzed univariate, bivariate and multivariate variables under study. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed. Results The prevalence of absenteeism was 55,1%. Education showed an association with absence of work (p = 0,0157), as well as professional activity (p = 0,0086). It wasn't possible to verify association between the presence of chronic diseases (p = 0,9358) or the presence of multimorbidity (p = 0,4309) with absence of work. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 31,8%. There was association between age (p < 0,0001), education (p < 0,001) and yield (p = 0,0009) and multimorbidity. There is no increase in the number of days of absence from work due to the increase in the number of chronic diseases. In the optimized logistic regression model the only variables that demonstrated association with the variable labor absence were age (p = 0,0391) and education (0,0089). Conclusions The scientific evidence generated will contribute to the current discussion on the need for the health and social security system to develop policies to patients with multimorbidity. Key messages The prevalence of absenteeism and multimorbidity in Portugal was respectively 55,1% and 31,8%. In the optimized model age and education demonstrated association with the variable labor absence.

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