scholarly journals Prediction Model for Graft Survival After Liver Transplantation Using Aspartate Aminotransferase, Total Bilirubin and Coagulation Factor: ABC Model

Author(s):  
Jinsoo Rhu ◽  
Jong Man Kim ◽  
Kyunga Kim ◽  
Heejin Yoo ◽  
Gyu-Seong Choi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: This study was designed to build models predicting graft survival after liver transplantation.Methods: Cox regression model for predicting graft survival after liver transplantation using post-transplantation aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, and international normalized ratio of prothrombin time was constructed. The model was compared with Model for Early Allograft Function Scoring (MEAF) and early allograft dysfunction (EAD) criteria.Results: The C-index of the model for living donor (0.73,CI=0.67-0.79) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF score (0.69,P=0.03) and EAD criteria. (0.66,P=0.001) while C-index for deceased donor (0.74,CI=0.65-0.83) was significantly higher compared to C-index of EAD criteria. (0.66,P=0.002) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of living donor model (0.93,CI=0.86-0.99) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF score (0.87,P=0.02) and EAD criteria. (0.84,P=0.02) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of deceased donor model (0.94,CI=0.89-1.00) was significantly higher compared to both MEAF score (0.82,P=0.02) and EAD criteria. (0.81,P<0.001) Internal validation for both living donor (C-index=0.68, AUC at 2 weeks=0.91, AUC at 4 weeks=0.92) and deceased donor (C-index=0.68, AUC at 2 weeks=0.86, AUC at 4 weeks=0.91) showed competent results. Conclusion: The prediction model for graft survival after liver transplantation showed high predictability and validity with higher predictability compared to traditional models.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinsoo Rhu ◽  
Jong Man Kim ◽  
Kyunga Kim ◽  
Heejin Yoo ◽  
Gyu-Seong Choi ◽  
...  

AbstractThis study was designed to build models predicting early graft failure after liver transplantation. Cox regression model for predicting early graft failure after liver transplantation using post-transplantation aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, and international normalized ratio of prothrombin time was constructed based on data from both living donor (n = 1153) and deceased donor (n = 359) liver transplantation performed during 2004 to 2018. The model was compared with Model for Early Allograft Function Scoring (MEAF) and early allograft dysfunction (EAD) with their C-index and time-dependent area-under-curve (AUC). The C-index of the model for living donor (0.73, CI = 0.67–0.79) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF (0.69, P = 0.03) and EAD (0.66, P = 0.001) while C-index for deceased donor (0.74, CI = 0.65–0.83) was only significantly higher compared to C-index of EAD. (0.66, P = 0.002) Time-dependent AUC at 2 weeks of living donor (0.96, CI = 0.91–1.00) and deceased donor (0.98, CI = 0.96–1.00) were significantly higher compared to those of EAD. (both 0.83, P < 0.001 for living donor and deceased donor) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of living donor (0.93, CI = 0.86–0.99) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF (0.87, P = 0.02) and EAD. (0.84, P = 0.02) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of deceased donor (0.94, CI = 0.89–1.00) was significantly higher compared to both MEAF (0.82, P = 0.02) and EAD. (0.81, P < 0.001). The prediction model for early graft failure after liver transplantation showed high predictability and validity with higher predictability compared to traditional models for both living donor and deceased donor liver transplantation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
SJ Tingle ◽  
ER Thompson ◽  
SS Ali ◽  
IK Ibrahim ◽  
E Irwin ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Biliary leaks and anastomotic strictures are common early biliary complications (EBC) following liver transplantation. However, their impact on outcomes remains controversial and poorly described. Method The NHS registry on adult liver transplantation between 2006 and 2017 was retrospectively reviewed (n=8304). Multiple imputations were performed to account for missing data. Adjusted regression models were used to assess predictors of EBC, and their impact on outcomes. 35 potential variables were included, and backwards stepwise selection enabled unbiased selection of variables for inclusion in final models. Result EBC occurred in 9.6% of patients. Adjusted cox regression revealed that EBCs have a significant and independent impact on graft survival (Leak HR=1.325; P=0.021, Stricture HR=1.514; P=0.002, Leak plus stricture HR=1.533; P=0.034) and patient survival (Leak HR=1.218; P=0.131, Stricture HR=1.578; P&lt;0.001, Leak plus stricture HR=1.507; P=0.044). Patients with EBC had longer median hospital stay (23 versus 15 days; P&lt;0.001) and increased chance for readmission within the first year (56% versus 32%; P&lt;0.001). On adjusted logistic regression the following were identified as independent risk factors for development of EBC: donation following circulatory death (OR=1.280; P=0.009), accessory hepatic artery (OR=1.324; P=0.005), vascular anastomosis time in minutes (OR=1.005; P=0.032) and ethnicity ‘other’ (OR=1.838; P=0.011). Conclusion EBCs prolong hospital stay, increase readmission rates and are independent risk factors for diminished graft survival and increased mortality in liver transplantation. We have identified factors that increase the likelihood of EBC occurrence; further research into interventions to prevent EBCs in these at-risk groups is vital to improve liver transplantation outcomes. Take-home message Using a large registry database we have shown that early anastomotic biliary complications are independent risk factors for decreased graft survival and increased mortality after liver transplantation. Research into interventions to prevent biliary complications in high risk groups are essential to improve liver transplant outcomes.


2010 ◽  
Vol 251 (3) ◽  
pp. 542-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert M. Merion ◽  
Tempie H. Shearon ◽  
Carl L. Berg ◽  
James E. Everhart ◽  
Michael M. Abecassis ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
pp. 214-240
Author(s):  
Lainie Friedman ◽  
J. Richard Thistlethwaite, Jr

In the 1980s in the United States (US), young children in liver failure were at proportionately greater risk of dying on the deceased donor liver transplant (DDLT) waitlist than adults because of the lack of appropriately sized grafts. This led to the development of two deceased donor liver techniques—reduced-size (trimming the graft to decrease its size) and split-liver (where one liver could provide grafts to two candidates). These developments decreased but did not eliminate waitlist mortality for young children. Split-liver DDLT paved the way for living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in children using the lateral segments of the left lobe. Pediatric LDLT began slowly at only a few centers with successful donor and recipient results. Adult-to-adult LDLT expanded quickly despite many US programs having limited experience, low volumes, and significant donor morbidity. The ethical issues raised by the rapid expansion of adult-to-adult LDLT in the US are discussed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 04 (02) ◽  
pp. 223-234
Author(s):  
Danielle Fritze ◽  
Amandeep Singh ◽  
Eric Lawitz ◽  
Kris V. Kowdley ◽  
Glenn Halff ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and alcoholic liver disease (ALD) are now the most common indications for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States. A subset of patients have both alcoholic and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (BASH). This study characterizes patients with BASH requiring LT and assesses changes in the prevalence of BASH as an indication for LT. Methods The United Network for Organ Sharing database was analyzed for all patients ≥ 18 years of age who received their first deceased donor LT from 2002 to 2016 for ALD, NASH, or BASH. Baseline demographics, clinical parameters, and LT outcomes were compared between groups. Results Since 2002, 85,448 patients underwent LT:15,327 had ALD, 9,971 had NASH, and 2,779 had BASH. The prevalence of BASH as an indication for LT increased from 0.5% in 2002 to 5% in 2016. Compared with patients with NASH, those with BASH were significantly more likely to be male (85.6 vs. 57%), younger (mean 56.4 vs. 58.6 years), and Hispanic (22.2 vs. 13.6%) (p < 0.001 for all). While indication for transplant was not significantly associated with transplant outcomes on multivariable analysis, patient and graft survival curves do differ significantly by indication for transplant, with worse outcomes for patients with BASH (patient survival at 5 years: NASH 78.1%, ALD 77.2%, BASH 73.5%, p = 0.013; graft survival at 5 years: NASH 75.3%, ALD 74.0%, BASH 70.8%, p = 0.046). Conclusions BASH is a rising indication for LT, especially for Hispanic males, due to the increasing prevalence of ALD and NASH in the United States.


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