Estimating Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Survivors: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BackgroundConcerns about a growing number of colorectal cancer survivors have emerged regarding cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. However, there is not yet a predictive tool that can estimate CVD risk and support the management of healthcare as well as disease prevention in terms of CVD risk among long-term colorectal cancer survivors.AimTo develop predictive tools to estimate individualized overall and each subtype of CVD risk using a nationwide cohort in South Korea.Methods and ResultsA total of 4,709 newly diagnosed patients with colorectal cancer who survived at least 5 years in the National Health Insurance System were analyzed. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for the identification of independent risk factors for the derivation of predictive nomograms, which were validated in an independent cohort (n = 3,957). Age, fasting serum glucose, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, Charlson comorbidity index, household income, body mass index, history of chemotherapy, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption were identified as independent risk factors for either overall CVD or each subtype of CVD subtype. Based on the identified independent risk factors, six independent nomograms for each CVD category were developed. Validation by an independent cohort demonstrated a good calibration with a median C-index of 0.687. According to the nomogram-derived median score, relative risks of 2.643, 1.821, 4.656, 2.629, 4.248, and 5.994 were found for overall CVD, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhage stroke in the validation cohort.ConclusionsThe predictive tools were developed with satisfactory accuracy. The derived nomograms may support the estimation of overall and individual CVD risk for long-term colorectal cancer survivors.

Incidence and risk factors of retinopathy of prematurity in extremely low birth weight babies in a tertiary neonatal care unit in northern India

To study the incidence and risk factors of Retinopathy of prematurity in extremely low birth weight babies in a tertiary neonatal care unit in northern India. A prospective cohort study of all neonates born during January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015, with birth weight less than 1000 grams. Demographic details, risk factors and incidence of ROP were studied. Sixty babies were enrolled for the study with mean birth weight of 892.983±112.933 (560 to 1000) grams and mean gestation age of 29.47±2.258 (25-35) weeks. The incidence of ROP in this cohort was 50% (30 infants), out of which 23% (7 infants) required treatment (laser photocoagulation). The statistical analysis of risk factors on univariate analysis revealed significant association for oxygen exposure, apnoea, surfactant use, anaemia, blood transfusion, intraventricular haemorrhage, sepsis and antibiotic use. On multivariate logistic regression analysis anemia and oxygen exposure > week were found to be independent risk factors for development of ROP. The incidence of ROP was although high in this exclusive cohort of babies born <1000g but there is substantial decrease in incidence as compared to that reported in earlier studies. Gestational age <30 wks, being appropriate for gestation rather than small for gestation, anemia and oxygen exposure>1 week were found to be independent risk factors for development of ROP in this cohort.

Treatment of Locally Advanced Merkel Cell Carcinoma—A Multi-Center Study

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare, aggressive skin cancer with a high risk of recurrence and poor prognosis. The treatment of locally advanced disease involves surgery and radiotherapy. To analyze real-life treatment patterns and clinical outcomes, we conducted a retrospective analysis of data from 161 MCC patients treated with curative intent in four oncological centers in Poland. The median age at diagnosis was 72 years (30–94); 49.7% were male. Lymph node (LN) involvement at diagnosis was found in 26.9% of patients. Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) was performed in 36.5% of patients (positive in 10.5%), and 51.9% of patients received perioperative treatment. The relapse rate was 38.3%. With the median follow-up of 2.3 years, the median disease-free survival (DFS) was not reached, and the 1-year rate was 65%. The negative independent risk factors for DFS were male gender, metastases in LN at diagnosis, no SLNB in patients without clinical nodal metastases, and no perioperative radiotherapy. The estimated median overall survival (OS) was 6.9 years (95%CI 4.64–9.15). The negative independent risk factors for OS were male gender, age above 70, metastases in LN at diagnosis, and no SLNB in patients without clinical nodal metastases. Our results confirm that the MCC treatment should be conducted in an experienced multidisciplinary team; however, the outcomes are still unsatisfactory.

Risk Factors for Therapeutic Intervention of Remdesivir in Mild to Moderate COVID-19—A Single-Center Retrospective Study of the COVID-19 Fourth Pandemic Period in Wakayama, Japan

Background and Objectives: The incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has increased in Wakayama, Japan, due to the spread of the highly infectious B.1.1.7 variant. Before this event, the medical systems were almost unaffected. We aimed to assess the clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and the risk factors for therapeutic intervention of remdesivir during the fourth pandemic period in Wakayama, Japan. Materials and Methods: This single-center retrospective study enrolled 185 patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 hospitalized in our hospital without intensive care between 14 March and 31 May 2021. Results: In this period, 125 (67.6%) of the 185 patients had the B.1.1.7 variant. Sixty-three patients (34.1%) required remdesivir treatment. Age upon admission and length of hospitalization were significantly different between remdesivir treatment and careful observation groups (mean (standard deviation); 59.6 (14.7) versus 45.3 (20.6) years; p < 0.001 and median (interquartile range); 10 (9–12) versus 9 (8–10) years; p < 0.001). One patient was transferred to another hospital because of disease progression. At hospital admission, age ≥60 years (odds ratio (OR) 6.90, p < 0.001), a previous history of diabetes mellitus (OR 20.9, p = 0.002), B.1.1.7 variant (OR 5.30; p = 0.005), lower respiratory symptoms (OR 3.13, p = 0.011), headache (OR 3.82, p = 0.011), and fever ≥37.5 °C (OR 4.55, p = 0.001) were independent risk factors to require remdesivir treatment during the admission. Conclusions: Many patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 required the therapeutic intervention of remdesivir during the fourth pandemic period in Wakayama, Japan. From the clinical data obtained at admission, these risk factors could contribute to a prediction regarding the requirement of remdesivir treatment in cases of mild to moderate COVID-19.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Elderly Patients With Hypopharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinomas: A Population-Based Study

Background: Hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (HPSCC) is one of the causes of death in elderly patients, an accurate prediction of survival can effectively improve the prognosis of patients. However, there is no accurate assessment of the survival prognosis of elderly patients with HPSCC. The purpose of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of elderly patients with HPSCC.Methods: The clinicopathological data of all patients from 2004 to 2018 were downloaded from the SEER database. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed independent risk factors for the prognosis of elderly patients with HPSCC. A new nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in elderly patients with HPSCC. Then used the consistency index (C-index), the calibration curve, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) to evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical value of the model.Results: A total of 3,172 patients were included in the study, and they were randomly divided into a training set (N = 2,219) and a validation set (N = 953). Univariate and multivariate analysis suggested that age, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and marriage were independent risk factors for patient prognosis. These nine variables are included in the nomogram to predict the CSS of patients. The C-index for the training set and validation was 0.713 (95% CI, 0.697–0.729) and 0.703 (95% CI, 0.678–0.729), respectively. The AUC results of the training and validation set indicate that this nomogram has good accuracy. The calibration curve indicates that the observed and predicted values are highly consistent. DCA indicated that the nomogram has a better clinical application value than the traditional TNM staging system.Conclusion: This study identified risk factors for survival in elderly patients with HPSCC. We found that age, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and marriage are independent prognostic factors. A new nomogram for predicting the CSS of elderly HPSCC patients was established. This model has good clinical application value and can help patients and doctors make clinical decisions.

A New Rapid Approach for Predicting Death in Coronavirus Patients: The Development and Validation of the COVID-19 Risk-Score in Fars Province (CRSF)

Background:Patients who are identified to be at a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 should receive better treatment and monitoring. This study aimed to propose a simple yet accurate risk assessment tool to help decision-making in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: From Jul to Nov 2020, 5454 patients from Fars Province, Iran, diagnosed with COVID-19 were enrolled. A multiple logistic regression model was trained on one dataset (training set: n=4183) and its prediction performance was assessed on another dataset (testing set: n=1271). This model was utilized to develop the COVID-19 risk-score in Fars (CRSF). Results: Five final independent risk factors including gender (male: OR=1.37), age (60-80: OR=2.67 and >80: OR=3.91), SpO2 (≤85%: OR=7.02), underlying diseases (yes: OR=1.25), and pulse rate (<60: OR=2.01 and >120: OR=1.60) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The CRSF formula was obtained using the estimated regression coefficient values of the aforementioned factors. The point values for the risk factors varied from 2 to 19 and the total CRSF varied from 0 to 45. The ROC analysis showed that the CRSF values of ≥15 (high-risk patients) had a specificity of 73.5%, sensitivity of 76.5%, positive predictive value of 23.2%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.8% for the prediction of death (AUC=0.824, P<0.0001). Conclusion:This simple CRSF system, which has a high NPV,can be useful for predicting the risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients. It can also be used as a disease severity indicator to determine triage level for hospitalization.

Risk Factors for Pressure Injuries in Adult Patients: A Narrative Synthesis

Pressure injuries remain a serious health complication for patients and nursing staff. Evidence from the past decade has not been analysed through narrative synthesis yet. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL Complete, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and other reviews/sources were screened. Risk of bias was evaluated using a slightly modified QUIPS tool. Risk factor domains were used to assign (non)statistically independent risk factors. Hence, 67 studies with 679,660 patients were included. In low to moderate risk of bias studies, non-blanchable erythema reliably predicted pressure injury stage 2. Factors influencing mechanical boundary conditions, e.g., higher interface pressure or BMI < 18.5, as well as factors affecting interindividual susceptibility (male sex, older age, anemia, hypoalbuminemia, diabetes, hypotension, low physical activity, existing pressure injuries) and treatment-related aspects, such as length of stay in intensive care units, were identified as possible risk factors for pressure injury development. Health care professionals’ evidence-based knowledge of above-mentioned risk factors is vital to ensure optimal prevention and/or treatment. Openly accessible risk factors, e.g., sex, age, BMI, pre-existing diabetes, and non-blanchable erythema, can serve as yellow flags for pressure injury development. Close communication concerning further risk factors, e.g., anemia, hypoalbuminemia, or low physical activity, may optimize prevention and/or treatment. Further high-quality evidence is warranted.

Age-Related Risk Factors and Complications of Patients With COVID-19: A Population-Based Retrospective Study

Objective: To study the differences in clinical characteristics, risk factors, and complications across age-groups among the inpatients with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Methods: In this population-based retrospective study, we included all the positive hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at Wuhan City from December 29, 2019 to April 15, 2020, during the first pandemic wave. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to explore the risk factors for death from COVID-19. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was performed to study the associations between comorbidities and complications.Results: There are 36,358 patients in the final cohort, of whom 2,492 (6.85%) died. Greater age (odds ration [OR] = 1.061 [95% CI 1.057–1.065], p &lt; 0.001), male gender (OR = 1.726 [95% CI 1.582–1.885], p &lt; 0.001), alcohol consumption (OR = 1.558 [95% CI 1.355–1.786], p &lt; 0.001), smoking (OR = 1.326 [95% CI 1.055–1.652], p = 0.014), hypertension (OR = 1.175 [95% CI 1.067–1.293], p = 0.001), diabetes (OR = 1.258 [95% CI 1.118–1.413], p &lt; 0.001), cancer (OR = 1.86 [95% CI 1.507–2.279], p &lt; 0.001), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.745 [95% CI 1.427–2.12], p &lt; 0.001), and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) (OR = 1.96 [95% CI 1.323–2.846], p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for death from COVID-19. Patients aged 40–80 years make up the majority of the whole patients, and them had similar risk factors with the whole patients. For patients aged &lt;40 years, only cancer (OR = 17.112 [95% CI 6.264–39.73], p &lt; 0.001) and ICH (OR = 31.538 [95% CI 5.213–158.787], p &lt; 0.001) were significantly associated with higher odds of death. For patients aged &gt;80 years, only age (OR = 1.033 [95% CI 1.008–1.059], p = 0.01) and male gender (OR = 1.585 [95% CI 1.301–1.933], p &lt; 0.001) were associated with higher odds of death. The incidence of most complications increases with age, but arrhythmias, gastrointestinal bleeding, and sepsis were more common in younger deceased patients with COVID-19, with only arrhythmia reaching statistical difference (p = 0.039). We found a relatively poor correlation between preexisting risk factors and complications.Conclusions: Coronavirus disease 2019 are disproportionally affected by age for its clinical manifestations, risk factors, complications, and outcomes. Prior complications have little effect on the incidence of extrapulmonary complications.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Overall Survival of Elderly Patients With Malignant Bone Tumors: A Population-Based Study

Background: Malignant bone tumors (MBT) are one of the causes of death in elderly patients. The purpose of our study is to establish a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with MBT.Methods: The clinicopathological data of all elderly patients with MBT from 2004 to 2018 were downloaded from the SEER database. They were randomly assigned to the training set (70%) and validation set (30%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for elderly patients with MBT. A nomogram was built based on these risk factors to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of elderly patients with MBT. Then, used the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) to evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model was. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical potential application value of the nomogram. Based on the scores on the nomogram, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve was used to test the difference in survival between the two patients.Results: A total of 1,641 patients were included, and they were randomly assigned to the training set (N = 1,156) and the validation set (N = 485). The univariate and multivariate analysis of the training set suggested that age, sex, race, primary site, histologic type, grade, stage, M stage, surgery, and tumor size were independent risk factors for elderly patients with MBT. The C-index of the training set and the validation set were 0.779 [0.759–0.799] and 0.801 [0.772–0.830], respectively. The AUC of the training and validation sets also showed similar results. The calibration curves of the training and validation sets indicated that the observed and predicted values were highly consistent. DCA suggested that the nomogram had potential clinical value compared with traditional TNM staging.Conclusion: We had established a new nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, 5-year OS of elderly patients with MBT. This predictive model can help doctors and patients develop treatment plans and follow-up strategies.

Effect of Central Line Duration and Other Risk Factors on Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection in Severe Adult Burns Patients at a Large Tertiary Referral Burns Centre: A 5-Year Retrospective Study

Central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) and catheter-related bloodstream infection (CLABSI with a positive catheter tip culture, CRBSI) are preventable causes of morbidity and mortality for severe adult burns patients. Routine central line changes as a CLABSI prevention strategy in burns patients is controversial due to the paucity of evidence to guide the appropriate timing of line changes. This study aimed to address this evidence gap by investigating risk factors associated with central line sepsis, including the duration of central line insertion, in a population of severe adult burns patients (burns involving ≥20% total body surface area (TBSA)) admitted to the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Intensive Care Unit over five years (2015–2019 inclusive). On multivariate analysis, central line duration and burn TBSA were identified as independent risk factors for CLABSI, with central line duration the most significant predictor (p = 0.0008; OR 1.177, 95% CI 1.072–1.299). No risk factor independently predicted CRBSI. CLABSI detection occurred a median of 8.5 days (IQR 6.0–11.0) post central line insertion. These findings suggest further research to assess the efficacy of routine line changes prior to the at-risk period of 6–11 days post central line insertion in reducing CLABSI in severe adult burns patients may be beneficial.