Abstract
Background: This study was designed to build models predicting graft survival after liver transplantation.Methods: Cox regression model for predicting graft survival after liver transplantation using post-transplantation aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, and international normalized ratio of prothrombin time was constructed. The model was compared with Model for Early Allograft Function Scoring (MEAF) and early allograft dysfunction (EAD) criteria.Results: The C-index of the model for living donor (0.73,CI=0.67-0.79) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF score (0.69,P=0.03) and EAD criteria. (0.66,P=0.001) while C-index for deceased donor (0.74,CI=0.65-0.83) was significantly higher compared to C-index of EAD criteria. (0.66,P=0.002) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of living donor model (0.93,CI=0.86-0.99) was significantly higher compared to those of both MEAF score (0.87,P=0.02) and EAD criteria. (0.84,P=0.02) Time-dependent AUC at 4 weeks of deceased donor model (0.94,CI=0.89-1.00) was significantly higher compared to both MEAF score (0.82,P=0.02) and EAD criteria. (0.81,P<0.001) Internal validation for both living donor (C-index=0.68, AUC at 2 weeks=0.91, AUC at 4 weeks=0.92) and deceased donor (C-index=0.68, AUC at 2 weeks=0.86, AUC at 4 weeks=0.91) showed competent results. Conclusion: The prediction model for graft survival after liver transplantation showed high predictability and validity with higher predictability compared to traditional models.