Research On Medical Insurance Policies Against Serious Illness Among Urban And Rural Residents In Shanghai Based On Micro-Simulation
Abstract Background: Urban and rural residents’ basic medical insurance (URRBMI) is an institutional arrangement for rural residents and unemployed urban residents in China. The serious illness medical insurance system (SIMIS) was established to provide additional medical cover. There are two ways in which medical expenses are covered. One is based on large expenses and provides proportional compensation for the individual’s own expenses after the URRBMI payment; the other is to pay for the treatment of some serious diseases after the URRBMI payment. At present, the SIMIS payment method in China is based on large expenses, and only a few areas, such as Shanghai, pay according to the treatment of serious diseases. This study aims to simulate and analyse the effect of the two payment methods on SIMIS in Shanghai. Methods: We developed a micro-simulation model to predict the number and characteristics of SIMIS participants among urban and rural residents in Shanghai and to simulate the process of medical treatment, medical consumption, and medical insurance payments for each insured person from 2020 to 2025. We then summarised and analysed the payment compensation effect, and compared it with Shanghai’s current policies.Results: Under the current financing standard, the payment of SIMIS according to high expenses is not sustainable and the compensation is insufficient and cannot effectively prevent or alleviate poverty.Conclusions: The policy of designing SIMIS according to national guidelines does not meet the development needs of Shanghai. Shanghai should take the current policy of paying compensation according to the treatment of serious illness as the policy basis, consider the security needs of patients with large medical expenses outside the scope of protection, and adjust policies appropriately to prevent poverty caused by illness.