Economic Growth, Exchange Rate, Political Regimes and Extreme Events Linkage: A Time Series Approach for Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Hafeez ◽  
Muhammad Imran ◽  
Sadaf Shahab ◽  
Muhammad Tariq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Political Regimes ◽  
Time Series Approach

scholarly journals IMPACT OF TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN: AN ARDL TO CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Nooreen Mujahid ◽  
Azeema Begum ◽  
Muhammad Noman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores the relationship between export growth and economic growth in the case of Pakistan by employing time series data for the period 1971- 2013. This study has incorporated variables like GDP (Gross Domestic Product) exports, imports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We have applied ARDL to co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM). The study provides the evidence of stationary time series variables, the existence of the long - run relationship between them, and the result of ECM revealed short rum equilibrium adjustment. Pakistan has many options for enhancing the export of the country. There is a dire need to minimize trade barriers and restrictions such as import and export quotas. Government of Pakistan had introduced Structural Reforms for liberalization, privatization and de-regulation which will actually shifted the trend of trade at a significant level in the end of 1980s. Low levels of interest rate can help exportable industries in which investments are needed to promote and enhance the exports. Stable exchange rate is the first and the best policy option for increasing the export and managing the imports. There is a cause and effect relationship between exchange rate and FDI. Pakistan has to immediately find the policies and processes that support logistics and facilitates trade.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Financial Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-99
Author(s):  
Zainab Jehan ◽  
Iffat Irshad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
The Impact

This study endeavours to examine empirically how real exchange rate (RER) misalignment affects economic growth in Pakistan. In this regard, we have not only estimated the direct impact but also the indirect impact of misalignment on economic growth by using the financial development channel. We have used time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 to carry out the empirical analysis. After testing the time series properties of the selected variables, we computed long run equilibrium RER later used to calculate RER misalignment. Finally, we estimated the impact of misalignment on per capita economic growth, both direct and indirect. Our results reveal an adverse impact of RER misalignment on economic growth. However, we report that financial development helps in minimising the adverse impact of RER misalignment, though not fully eliminating it. Based on the empirical findings, the study suggests that exchange rate policies need to be managed more cautiously. Moreover, the financial sector development needs to be strengthened which may help in fully alleviating the adverse impact of RER misalignment on economic growth. JEL Classification: F31, GOO, O47 Keywords: Real Exchange Rate Misalignment, Financial Development, Economic Growth, FMOLS

scholarly journals On Italy’s Flat Tax Needs and Sustainability of the Public Budget

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Marco Mele
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Public Budget ◽  
Flat Tax ◽  
The Public ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Time Series Approach

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sustainability of Italian national accounts with a hypothetical Flat Tax. After an introduction, where we will describe the Italian situation relatively before and after the euro introduction, we will tackle the problem of high tax pressure. In particular, we use a time series approach and Toda-Yamamoto test to check if the high tax pressure causes low growth in Italy. Finally, with ISTAT’ dataset, we will check sustainability on Italian revenue with a Flat Tax, considered it one of the possible solutions to low Italian economic growth.

Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in Vietnam: An Empirical Analysis

2018 ◽  
pp. 32-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dat Tho Tran ◽  
Van Thi Cam Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at investigating the impact of globalization on economic growth in the case of Vietnam. Empirical analysis is done by using time series data for the period from 1995 to 2014. The paper tested the stationary cointegration of time series data and utilized the error correction modeling technique to determine the short run relationships among economic growth, globalization, foreign direct investment, balance of trade and exchange rate variables. Then, the long run relationship between economic growth and the variables representing economic integration were estimated by ordinary least square. The results show that globalization, measured by the KOF index, promotes economic growth and Vietnam has gained from integrating into the global economy. The overall index of globalization had positively and significantly impacted the economic growth in Vietnam. The results also indicated that economic globalization had a significantly positive effect on economic growth in the period examined. The study further revealed that foreign direct investment and the exchange rate affect economic growth positively whereas balance of trade affects economic growth negatively.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-483
Author(s):  
Yaenal Arifin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar merupakan variabel - variabel yang diserahkan dalam mekanisme pasar internasional. Guncangan pada keduanya dapat berdampak pada stabilitas perekonomian domestik. Kinerja perekonomian salah satunya dapat diukur dari laju pertumbuhan ouput riil negara tersebut. Harga minyak dan nilai tukar dapat secara langsung mempengaruhi tingkat ouput riil suatu negara maupun secara tidak langsung yaitu melalui jalur inflasi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar terhdap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melalui mediasi inflasi. Metode analisis yang adalah analisis jalur (path analyze) dengan menggunakan data time series kuartal selama tahun 2005-2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan; secara parsial, harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif (tidak signifikan) terhadap inflasi. Secara parsial harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) , nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif (signifikan) dan inflasi  berpengaruh positif (signifikan) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memediasi pengaruh harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. World Oil prices and exchange rate are variables which controled by international market mechanism. Shocks on both can have an impact on the stability of the domestic economy. The economic performance measured in real output growth. Oil price and exchange rate directly affect a country's of real output growth  and indirectly is through inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s economic growth through inflation mediation. The method of analysis are using path analyze with quarterly time series data during the years 2005-2014. The result showed : partially, the oil price positively (significant) and positive  exchange rate effect (not significant)  on the inflation. Partially, world oil prices has a positive effect (significant), the exchange rate has a negative effect (significant) and the inflation has a positive effect (significant) to the economic growth. Inflation in this research just has a mediation the effect of world oil price to the economic growth.

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