An Econometric Analysis of Correlated Discrete Event Impact on the Price of Natural Gas: The Nord Stream’s Effect on European Markets

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Mooney

Subject The Russo-Turkish intergovernmental TurkStream agreement. Significance An agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on October 10 envisages a 31.5-billion-cubic-metres/year (bcm/y) natural gas transit line under the Black Sea and through Turkey to the Turkish-Greek border. One of two parallel pipes would supply 15.75 bcm/y gas to Turkey, replacing an existing pipeline. The second would export the same volume to European markets via a planned border 'hub' and export route yet to be announced. Impacts TurkStream's extra volume will increase Turkish dependence on Russian gas but allow more supply flexibility during peak winter demand. Delivering more Russian gas to Central-Eastern Europe will make it more difficult for other potential gas suppliers to secure market share. The agreement will bring Ankara and Moscow closer and may be followed by a new deal to restart the frozen Akkuyu nuclear plant.


Significance Azerbaijan will start exporting gas to Turkey via the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) at the end of June and onward to European markets from 2020. TANAP is a key link in the Southern Gas Corridor, which requires expanded production at the large Shah Deniz offshore field. Impacts The Southern Gas Corridor will bind Turkey and Azerbaijan even closer together. Azerbaijan will continue importing Russian gas to top up domestic consumption. The government will encourage new exploration as it cannot afford a significant fall in hydrocarbon revenues.


Author(s):  
Alina Kovalenko

By virtue of geographical and historic factors, Ukraine has been playing an important role in oil and natural gas deliveries to European energy markets. Such status is basically attributed to the fact that West and Central European countries, while being rather big consumers of natural hydrocarbons, have shortage in their own energy resources. On the other hand, major natural gas and oil reserves are concentrated in the Russian Federation, Caspian region and the Gulf area. Currently Ukraine has become a major juncture in the transit of gas and oil from Russia and Kazakhstan to European markets. The expected increase in consumption of natural hydrocarbon resources, as well as their uneven distribution make Ukraine, owing to its suitable geographical location and the developed gas and oil network, an “energy bridge” between the exporting countries and consumers in the industrialized Europe. In the article the author considers the modern gas supply system of Ukraine. The author carried out a study on the technical feasibility of calibration of flow meters on the environment of natural gas under pressure. Currently in Ukraine calibration is performed only in the air. This does not make it possible to reduce the error in the instrumentation of natural gas. Given the volume of natural gas consumption in the country (about 20 billion m3/year), this leads to huge non-production losses, negative impact on economic performance and inflated cost for end users. The European experience was analyzed: PTB, DNV, PIGSAR, SICK, INOTECH. Modernization of the gas industry of Ukraine is proposed.


Author(s):  
Amelia Hadfield

This chapter examines the role of energy in foreign policy by focusing on Russia’s decision in 2006 to temporarily stop the flow of natural gas to the Ukraine, along with its impact on European markets. It first explains how energy contributes to national prosperity and underwrites national security, noting that states now desire energy security in the same way that they desire military and economic security. It then considers the political significance of energy during the post-Cold War years before discussing the ‘gas spat’ between Russia and Ukraine. It also explores the European energy insecurity dilemma that followed the spat and shows that much of the current tensions afflicting Europe and Russia are driven by an inability to manage energy security as a potent area of foreign policy.


Author(s):  
L.R GOJAYEVA ◽  

The article examines the geopolitical and geoeconomic position of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region. Since the signing of the "Treaty of the Century" on September 20, 1994, the Azerbaijani state has once again proved that it is the most influential state in the region, both politically and economically, pursuing a consistent and balanced domestic and foreign policy. The Azerbaijani state has approved large projects in the South Caucasus region, while pursuing a policy of friendship and mutual cooperation with the countries of the region. One such megaproject discussed in the article is the Trans Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP). TANAP, which was implemented in 2011-2020 and is the main segment of the 1,841-kilometer corridor of the South Caucasus gas pipeline, aims to transport Azerbaijani natural gas from the giant Shah Deniz-2 field to European markets through Georgia and Turkey. This project has already been launched and the article discusses its geopolitical implications for our country.


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