Industrial Production Dynamics, May through July 2021: Growth Factors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Kaukin ◽  
Evgenia Miller
Keyword(s):  
Growth Factors ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Production Dynamics

Industrial possibilities and false necessity: rethinking production, employment and labor dynamics in the global economy1

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 599-624
Author(s):  
Gary Herrigel
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Economic Practices ◽  
Political Economies ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Labor Dynamics ◽  
Economic Thinking ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Rich Countries ◽  
Production Dynamics

Abstract Much of contemporary comparative political–economic thinking about global industrial production accepts the following claims (a) that manufacturing is destined to leave rich political economies for lower wage ones; (b) that global industrial production is hierarchically structured with higher value operations concentrated in the rich countries and intermediate component production distributed across increasingly specialized clusters in emerging political economies; (c) that digital technological advance, automation and massive platform firms are ushering in a new historical regime of capitalism that is generating high rates of inequality and threatens to thoroughly degrade work for less educated and less skilled workers all over the globe. This article argues that these three arguments are deeply flawed because they present only a partial picture of contemporary global industrial dynamics. They exclude from view many concurrent developments that suggest that alternative political and economic practices and trajectories are possible. And they downplay the role that politics and struggle have played and can play in the constitution of the political economy. By deconstructing these three arguments, this article attempts to recover possibility from the constraints of false necessity in thinking about global industrial production dynamics.

scholarly journals Modeling the Instability of Development of Complex Hierarchical Systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (47) ◽  
pp. 143-154
Author(s):  
O. A. Sergienko ◽  
◽  
M. A. Mashchenko ◽  
V. V. Baranova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Catastrophe Theory ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Hierarchical Systems ◽  
Dynamic Pattern ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Production Dynamics ◽  
Crisis Situations

The article suggests using modern instruments of dynamic analysis, i.e. the theories of phase, cointegration, and bifurcation analysis and the catastrophe theory to improve the methodology to study the dynamic pattern of the development indices of complex hierarchical systems (CHS) and their relationship. The article elaborates the main directions for creating research models, which would describe the interaction between the development indices of CHS, grounded on estimating and analyzing pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis phenomena in hierarchical social and economic territorial systems. A conceptual framework algorithm is designed to model the dynamic pattern of the CHS development using modern economic and mathematical instruments to study the dynamics of time-series data and assess the relationship of CHS indices. Complex models have been implemented to monitor the key CHS development indices based on the phase and cointegration analysis of the relationship between the following processes: investment and GDP; GDP and industrial production dynamics; GDP dynamics and import volumes dynamics; wages dynamics and industrial production dynamics; migration and natural population growth. As part of the implementation of a comprehensive model for monitoring key indices of CHS development based on bifurcation analysis and the catastrophe theory, the supercritical Hopf bifurcation is built in the relationship model of imports and GDP; surfaces of the functions of Kaldor’s model and a three-dimensional Kaldor’s model are constructed. The suggested complex toolkit for research models of the CHS development instability gives us the opportunity to draw conclusions about the reasons and factors of the occurrence of endogenous (self-generating) fluctuations and bifurcations; about the probability of catastrophes and crises arising in complex hierarchical economic systems. The solution of problems caused by the CHS development instability on the basis of complex application of phase, cointegration and bifurcation analysis will allow us to predict crisis situations in advance and to offer methods of their prevention, to find complex ways out of crisis situations.

scholarly journals Institutions, Policies and Growth

2004 ◽  
pp. 35-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Kolodko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Actual Growth ◽  
New Institutions ◽  
Production Dynamics

Growth factors and the causes of disparities between the potential and actual growth rates are considered in the article. Issues pertaining to the interaction between the structure and functioning of market economy institutions as well as the policy followed within their framework with an accent on the experience of the transition economies are analyzed. The necessity of learning in the process of mastering new institutions is stressed. Special attention is paid to the analysis of gray sector in politics. Requirements to effective economic policy accounting for consequences for long-term production dynamics are formulated.

scholarly journals Modelling of the еconomic growth factors: The case of the Ural regions and the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 112-131
Author(s):  
Daria S. Benz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Per Capita

Current pandemic-induced downturn has made the problem of economic growth even more acute for the Ural regions of Russia. The national economy is stagnating and trans mits the same processes to the regional economies. The paper aims to identify the economic growth factors for eight Ural regions and for the national economy as a whole. The author mod els the functions of economic growth for regions that are part of both the Ural Federal District and the Ural macroregion, thereby consciously expanding the study for comparative analysis. Methodologically, the paper relies on the theory of economic growth and theory of produc tion (works of C. W. Cobb, P. H. Douglas, R. M. Solow). The author uses econometric tools and builds regressions for eight regions and the national economy, where the outcome variable is the growth rate of gross regional product. The independent variables include the growth rates of the following indicators: industrial production, employment, investments in fixed assets, cost of fixed assets, average per capita incomes, costs of technological innovations. The source of statistical information is Rosstat data covering the period 1995–2018. Based on the constructed functions, the researcher draws a number of conclusions. For the majority of the Ural regions, as well as for the Russian economy, the deciding and the most elastic factor is the growth rate of industrial production. Results among regions vary, but in total, the growth rate of average per capita incomes is the second most important factor. The increase in employment affects greatly the economic growth, especially in those regions that have seen a drastic decline in the labour force over the past decades. The costs of technological innovation do not demonstrate high elasticity. The author suggests that the reason is that their amount is extremely small. Even high growth rates of costs of technological innovation do not produce a visible result, since their level remains catastrophically low. The results of the study can be used in the regional and national socioeconomic development strategies, as well as serve a basis for further economic studies.

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