scholarly journals Modeling the Instability of Development of Complex Hierarchical Systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (47) ◽  
pp. 143-154
Author(s):  
O. A. Sergienko ◽  
◽  
M. A. Mashchenko ◽  
V. V. Baranova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bifurcation Analysis ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Catastrophe Theory ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Hierarchical Systems ◽  
Dynamic Pattern ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Production Dynamics ◽  
Crisis Situations

The article suggests using modern instruments of dynamic analysis, i.e. the theories of phase, cointegration, and bifurcation analysis and the catastrophe theory to improve the methodology to study the dynamic pattern of the development indices of complex hierarchical systems (CHS) and their relationship. The article elaborates the main directions for creating research models, which would describe the interaction between the development indices of CHS, grounded on estimating and analyzing pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis phenomena in hierarchical social and economic territorial systems. A conceptual framework algorithm is designed to model the dynamic pattern of the CHS development using modern economic and mathematical instruments to study the dynamics of time-series data and assess the relationship of CHS indices. Complex models have been implemented to monitor the key CHS development indices based on the phase and cointegration analysis of the relationship between the following processes: investment and GDP; GDP and industrial production dynamics; GDP dynamics and import volumes dynamics; wages dynamics and industrial production dynamics; migration and natural population growth. As part of the implementation of a comprehensive model for monitoring key indices of CHS development based on bifurcation analysis and the catastrophe theory, the supercritical Hopf bifurcation is built in the relationship model of imports and GDP; surfaces of the functions of Kaldor’s model and a three-dimensional Kaldor’s model are constructed. The suggested complex toolkit for research models of the CHS development instability gives us the opportunity to draw conclusions about the reasons and factors of the occurrence of endogenous (self-generating) fluctuations and bifurcations; about the probability of catastrophes and crises arising in complex hierarchical economic systems. The solution of problems caused by the CHS development instability on the basis of complex application of phase, cointegration and bifurcation analysis will allow us to predict crisis situations in advance and to offer methods of their prevention, to find complex ways out of crisis situations.

The Nexus between Financial Development and Human Development: The Case of Developing Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Bilgehan Tekin
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Development Levels ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study to examine the relationship between financial development and human development in the health and welfare dimensions of developing countries. This study aims to determine whether the financial developments of the countries have an effect on the basic human development of the individuals and whether human development indicators have an impact on financial development. In this study, the relationship between financial development and human development has been tried to be revealed by using data obtained from developing countries. Financial development levels of the countries were measured with the developed financial development index. The index is calculated by using M3 / GDP, private sector loans / GDP and loans to banks from private sector / GDP ratios. The human development index is calculated by considering various health indicators and GNP per capita. The data includes annual data for the period 1970-2016. Pedroni and Kao cointegration analysis and Dumitrescu & Hurlin panel causality analysis were performed in the study. According to the results of the study, the cointegration relationship was determined between the two variables. There is also a two-way causality between the variables.

scholarly journals Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Sports Entrepreneurship

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8493
Author(s):  
Paloma Escamilla-Fajardo ◽  
Juan M. Núñez-Pomar ◽  
Ferran Calabuig-Moreno ◽  
Ana M. Gómez-Tafalla
Keyword(s):  
Service Quality ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Paired Sample ◽  
Sports Clubs ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Linear Regressions ◽  
Crisis Situations

Sports entrepreneurship has been considered an important part of sports organisations when overcoming crisis situations. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the crisis derived from COVID-19 on sports entrepreneurship and whether there are differences in the prediction of entrepreneurship on service quality in non-profit sports clubs. To this end, 145 sports clubs were analysed before and after the outbreak of the virus in society. Paired sample-t tests were carried out to determine the differences in variables studied before (Time I) and after (Time II) the COVID-19 outbreak, and correlations and hierarchical linear regressions were used to analyse the relationship between the variables studied in the two different stages. The results obtained show that risk-taking and innovation are significantly higher after the appearance of COVID-19, while proactivity has not undergone significant changes. Finally, the relationship between sports entrepreneurship and service quality is positive and significant in both stages but stronger before the crisis.

Testing Structural Break in the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 442-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saidia Jeelani ◽  
Joity Tomar ◽  
Tapas Das ◽  
Seshanwita Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The article aims to study the relationship between those macroeconomic factors that the affect (INR/USD) exchange rate (ER). Time series data of 40 years on ER, GDP, inflation, interest rate (IR), FDI, money supply, trade balance (TB) and terms of trade (ToT) have been collected from the RBI website. The considered model has suggested that only inflation, TB and ToT have influenced the ER significantly during the study period. Other macroeconomic variables such as GDP, FDI and IR have not significantly influenced the ER during the study period. The model is robust and does not suffer from residual heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and non-normality. Sometimes the relationship between ER and macroeconomic variables gets affected by major economic events. For example, the Southeast Asian crisis caused by currency depreciation in 1997 and sub-prime loan crisis of 2008 severely strained the national economies. Any global economic turmoil will affect different economic variables through ripple effect and this, in turn, will affect the ER of different economies differently. The article has also diagnosed whether there is any structural break or not in the model by applying Chow’s Breakpoint Test and have obtained multiple breaks between 2003 and 2009. The existence of structural breaks during 2003–2009 is explained by the fact that volume of crude oil imported by India is high and oil price rise led to a deficit in the TB alarmingly, which caused a structural break or parameter instability.

scholarly journals Non-bank financial institutions and economic growth: Evidence from Africa’s three largest economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Rateiwa ◽  
Meshach J. Aziakpono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Background: In order for the post-2015 world development agenda – termed the sustainable development goals (SDGs) – to succeed, there is a pronounced need to ensure that available resources are used more effectively and additional financing is accessed from the private sector. Given that traditional bank lending has slowed down, the development of non-bank financing has become imperative. To this end, this article intends to empirically test the role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in stimulating economic growth.Aim: The aim of this article is to empirically test the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the development of NBFIs, and the causality thereof.Setting: The empirical assessment uses time-series data from Africa’s three largest economies, namely, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, over the period 1971–2013.Methods: This article uses the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model within a country-specific setting.Results: The results showed that the long-run relationship between NBFI development and economic growth is relatively stronger in Egypt and South Africa, than in Nigeria. Evidence in respect of Nigeria shows that such a relationship is weak. The nature of the relationship between NBFI development and economic growth in Egypt is positive and significant, and predominantly bidirectional. This suggests that a virtuous relationship between NBFIs and economic growth exists in Egypt. In South Africa, the relationship is positive and significant and predominantly runs from NBFI development to economic growth, implying a supply-leading phenomenon. In Nigeria, the results are weak and mixed.Conclusion: The study concludes that in countries with more developed financial systems, the role of NBFIs and their importance to the economic growth process are more pronounced. Thus, there is need for developing policies targeted at developing the NBFI sector, given their potential to contribute to economic growth.

scholarly journals Retrospectives: The Introduction of the Cobb–Douglas Regression

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Biddle
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mathematical Representation ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Empirical Measures ◽  
Stable Relationship ◽  
Initial Application ◽  
Economic Association ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Theory Of Production

At the 1927 meetings of the American Economic Association, Paul Douglas presented a paper entitled “A Theory of Production,” which he had coauthored with Charles Cobb. The paper proposed the now familiar Cobb–Douglas function as a mathematical representation of the relationship between capital, labor, and output. The paper's innovation, however, was not the function itself, which had originally been proposed by Knut Wicksell, but the use of the function as the basis of a statistical procedure for estimating the relationship between inputs and output. The paper's least squares regression of the log of the output-to-capital ratio in manufacturing on the log of the labor-to-capital ratio—the first Cobb–Douglas regression—was a realization of Douglas's innovative vision that a stable relationship between empirical measures of inputs and outputs could be discovered through statistical analysis, and that this stable relationship could cast light on important questions of economic theory and policy. This essay provides an account of the introduction of the Cobb–Douglas regression: its roots in Douglas's own work and in trends in economics in the 1920s, its initial application to time series data in the 1927 paper and Douglas's 1934 book The Theory of Wages, and the early reactions of economists to this new empirical tool.

The role of digital economy in China's sustainable development in a post-pandemic environment

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Malin Song ◽  
Chenbin Zheng ◽  
Jiangquan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic is still raging, which calls for an exploration of how to prevent and control pandemics to promote sustainable development. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of the digital economy in sustainable development, the relationship between the two, the impacts of the outbreak on economic and social development, and changes in China's digital economy.Design/methodology/approachThe study used the time-series data from 2002 to 2019 and an unconstrained VAR model to examine the relationship between the digital economy and sustainable development before the pandemic.FindingsChina's digital economy has promoted the country's sustainable economic and social development; it has advanced rapid economic growth, improved people's living standards, increased efficient utilization of resources, and strengthened environmental protection.Research limitations/implicationsAmid the pandemic, China's digital economy developed effectively; it showed strong resilience because of its unique advantages. The digital economy in China has helped the country to control the pandemic in a short period, reduced the risk of supply chain disruption, promoted China's economic growth, and ensured the orderly operation of society. Therefore, countries worldwide are encouraged to prioritize their digital economies.Originality/valueCompared with the extant literature, this study explores the sustainable supply chain in a broader sense in the context of a pandemic, and how the supply chain is influenced by the digital economy. It not only includes the stability, resilience, and viability of the supply chain in economic development but also involves aspects of people's life, resource utilization, and environmental protection.

INTERCONNECTION BETWEEN GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS AND INDUSTRY

2021 ◽  
pp. 6-11
Author(s):  
Alexander N. Bryntsev ◽  
◽  
M.A. Bykova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Global Supply Chains ◽  
Global Competition ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
The Relationship

In the article, the authors consider the issues of the relationship between global supply chains and industrial production of semiconductors in modern conditions. Particular attention is paid to the applied value of the application of artificial intelligence technologies in industry in the light of the growth of global competition. Their specific features, strengths and weaknesses are shown. A brief macroeconomic analysis of the development of markets for robotics, the automotive industry, high-tech products, as well as modern regulations on the eve of a new technological order is given.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document