Convex Hull Convolutive Non-Negative Matrix Factorization for Uncovering Temporal Patterns in Multivariate Time-Series Data

Due to the exponential growth of the Internet of Things networks and the massive amount of time series data collected from these networks, it is essential to apply efficient methods for Big Data analysis in order to extract meaningful information and statistics. Anomaly detection is an important part of time series analysis, improving the quality of further analysis, such as prediction and forecasting. Thus, detecting sudden change points with normal behavior and using them to discriminate between abnormal behavior, i.e., outliers, is a crucial step used to minimize the false positive rate and to build accurate machine learning models for prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we propose a rule-based decision system that enhances anomaly detection in multivariate time series using change point detection. Our architecture uses a pipeline that automatically manages to detect real anomalies and remove the false positives introduced by change points. We employ both traditional and deep learning unsupervised algorithms, in total, five anomaly detection and five change point detection algorithms. Additionally, we propose a new confidence metric based on the support for a time series point to be an anomaly and the support for the same point to be a change point. In our experiments, we use a large real-world dataset containing multivariate time series about water consumption collected from smart meters. As an evaluation metric, we use Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The low MAE values show that the algorithms accurately determine anomalies and change points. The experimental results strengthen our assumption that anomaly detection can be improved by determining and removing change points as well as validates the correctness of our proposed rules in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, the proposed rule-based decision support systems enable users to make informed decisions regarding the status of the water distribution network and perform effectively predictive and proactive maintenance.

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Implementation of IoT Framework with Data Analysis Using Deep Learning Methods for Occupancy Prediction in a Building

Future Internet ◽

10.3390/fi13030067 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 67

Author(s):

Eric Hitimana ◽

Gaurav Bajpai ◽

Richard Musabe ◽

Louis Sibomana ◽

Jayavel Kayalvizhi

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Time Series ◽

Deep Learning ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Multivariate Time Series ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Series Data ◽

Support Vector ◽

Human Beings ◽

Feed Forward Network

Many countries worldwide face challenges in controlling building incidence prevention measures for fire disasters. The most critical issues are the localization, identification, detection of the room occupant. Internet of Things (IoT) along with machine learning proved the increase of the smartness of the building by providing real-time data acquisition using sensors and actuators for prediction mechanisms. This paper proposes the implementation of an IoT framework to capture indoor environmental parameters for occupancy multivariate time-series data. The application of the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning algorithm is used to infer the knowledge of the presence of human beings. An experiment is conducted in an office room using multivariate time-series as predictors in the regression forecasting problem. The results obtained demonstrate that with the developed system it is possible to obtain, process, and store environmental information. The information collected was applied to the LSTM algorithm and compared with other machine learning algorithms. The compared algorithms are Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes Network, and Multilayer Perceptron Feed-Forward Network. The outcomes based on the parametric calibrations demonstrate that LSTM performs better in the context of the proposed application.

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Uncertainty quantification of the effects of biotic interactions on community dynamics from nonlinear time-series data

Journal of The Royal Society Interface ◽

10.1098/rsif.2018.0695 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 15 (147) ◽

pp. 20180695 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Simone Cenci ◽

Serguei Saavedra

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Community Dynamics ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Multivariate Time Series ◽

Model Averaging ◽

Biotic Interactions ◽

Series Data ◽

Time Intervals ◽

Novel Approach ◽

Data Generating Process

Biotic interactions are expected to play a major role in shaping the dynamics of ecological systems. Yet, quantifying the effects of biotic interactions has been challenging due to a lack of appropriate methods to extract accurate measurements of interaction parameters from experimental data. One of the main limitations of existing methods is that the parameters inferred from noisy, sparsely sampled, nonlinear data are seldom uniquely identifiable. That is, many different parameters can be compatible with the same dataset and can generalize to independent data equally well. Hence, it is difficult to justify conclusive assertions about the effect of biotic interactions without information about their associated uncertainty. Here, we develop an ensemble method based on model averaging to quantify the uncertainty associated with the effect of biotic interactions on community dynamics from non-equilibrium ecological time-series data. Our method is able to detect the most informative time intervals for each biotic interaction within a multivariate time series and can be easily adapted to different regression schemes. Overall, this novel approach can be used to associate a time-dependent uncertainty with the effect of biotic interactions. Moreover, because we quantify uncertainty with minimal assumptions about the data-generating process, our approach can be applied to any data for which interactions among variables strongly affect the overall dynamics of the system.

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