scholarly journals Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongzhen Ni ◽  
Jing Zhao ◽  
Xiujian Peng ◽  
Genfa Chen

Abstract In response to rapidly growing energy demands, Chinese authorities plan to invest more in hydropower development. However, there are concerns about the possible effects on macroeconomy. This paper uses SinoTERM, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Chinese economy, to analyze the economic impact of large hydropower development projects. The model features regional labor market dynamics and an electricity subdivision module with substitutability between various types of electricity generation. The results suggest that hydropower development will boost economic growth in the project region. Most sectors in the project region will benefit from the hydropower development such as other services, health, and education, while some sectors will suffer a loss in output because of the substantial increase in real wages. For the national, every 10,000 yuan investment can drive the national GDP growth of 1,000 yuan, and the cost is expected to be recovered in ten years. By the end of 2040, the real national wage will be around 0.16% higher than the baseline scenario. The project could only be justified if net environmental benefits outweigh this loss.

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 201
Author(s):  
Omer Elgaili Elsheikh ◽  
Azharia Abdelbagi Elbushra ◽  
Ali A. A. Salih

<p>Changes in exchange rate and international prices greatly affect food availability, the agricultural sector, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study quantifies the effects of change in exchange rate and world prices on Sudan’s agricultural production, imports, exports, and GDP. Special emphasis has been placed on sorghum and wheat, the main food grains. A Standard Computable General Equilibrium model has been developed and used for the analysis. The main objective is to contribute to policy-making process for enhancing food security and social welfare in the Sudan<strong>.</strong></p> <p>Currency depreciation would reduce wheat imports and increase its domestic production, increase sorghum export, increase domestic output and export of sesame and cotton, and improves GDP; and vice versa for appreciation. Appreciation favors urban (wheat) consumers, whereas depreciation favors rural (sorghum) consumers.</p> <p>Increasing world price of wheat would decrease its imports, whereas that of sorghum would encourage its production and export, and increase domestic food prices. GDP decreases due to investment reduction<strong>. </strong></p> <p>It is recommended that wheat import should be conditioned on hard currency availability and food gap, while maintaining stable exchange rate that strike a balance between encouraging sorghum exports and wheat imports. It is also recommended to encourage innovation of fast food from traditional grains to curb the shift to wheat consumption.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 347-353 ◽  
pp. 1093-1097
Author(s):  
Ai Jun Li ◽  
Zheng Li

This study analyzes the effects of technological progress for energy intensity and energy use related carbon dioxide emissions during urbanization in China by a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The parameters about technological progress and urbanization are all exogenously given. The impacts of technological progress on economic growth, energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions during period from 2002 to 2030 are examined. Simulation results show that gradually pushing energy efficiency related technologies through appropriate policy incentives is the key to realize low-carbonized development while promoting economic growth in China.


2007 ◽  
Vol 41 (8) ◽  
pp. 1799-1813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Berrittella ◽  
Arjen Y. Hoekstra ◽  
Katrin Rehdanz ◽  
Roberto Roson ◽  
Richard S.J. Tol

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