Rocky politics will slow Tunisia's renewable progress

Significance Once finished, the projects will make up 6% of Tunisia’s electricity generation capacity. Although new projects promise increased renewable energy development, a combination of political and economic uncertainty, combined with cumbersome investment requirements, mean foreign investor interest remains limited. Impacts The country’s climate change targets are unlikely to be met. The decline of domestic gas production will leave Tunisia exposed to high international prices. The lack of a foreign investment track record in electricity suggests only small projects are likely to proceed in coming years.

Mexico oil sector plans look highly optimistic

Significance The aim is for all production to be processed at Pemex refineries, and for petrol imports to be eliminated from 2023, making Mexico’s oil sector completely self-sufficient. Impacts The zero-exports strategy may prompt further downgrading of Pemex’s debt by rating agencies. Reduced oil exports would push Mexico’s trade and current accounts into deeper deficits, affecting the peso-dollar exchange rate. Crude export reduction by Mexico would have little to no effect on international prices.

Price transmission between international and domestic prices in the Brazilian citrus sector

The orange juice chain is a representative sector of the Brazilian agribusiness sector and its performance warrants analysis to identify strategies to enhance its competitiveness. Analysis of asymmetry in food value chain is important because it provides valuable information on market structure and performance. We use an asymmetric threshold error correction model to examine threshold, short- and long-run asymmetries on price transmission from international to domestic prices of oranges in Brazil. We use monthly data on international frozen concentrated orange juice prices and domestic prices of oranges in Brazil for the period from January 1996 to December 2020 in the analysis. We find evidence of threshold and asymmetries in short- and long-run price transmission and asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run relationship between international and domestic orange prices in Brazil. Decreases in international prices that lead to reductions in marketing margins are passed on quickly to domestic prices, but this is not the case for increases in international prices. We discuss implications for the Brazilian citrus industry.

Prices versus costs of production for molnupiravir as a COVID-19 treatment

Background Molnupiravir has been recently approved in the United Kingdom for the treatment of COVID-19 for showing promising survival benefits in clinical trials. This analysis will estimate and compare potential generic minimum costs of molnupiravir as well as observe countries eligible for pricing discounts as agreed by Merck and The Medicines Patent Pool (MPP). Methods Drug prices were searched for molnupiravir using active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) data extracted from global shipping records. This was compared with national pricing data from a range of low, medium, and high-income countries. Annual API export volumes from India were used to estimate the current availability. Trends of molnupiravir drugs prices were also evaluated for the last 6-month period. Mean daily COVID-19 diagnosis rates were calculated for the countries eligible for voluntary licensing. Results Molnupiravir can be generically manufactured at the very low per-course cost of $9.00. Over the past 6 months, prices of molnupiravir have fallen significantly, and when comparing reported international prices, we found wide variations between countries. Only 9% of diagnosed patients worldwide were in the countries eligible for voluntary licensing. Conclusions Prices of molnupiravir range from $20 to $750 per course. Only 9% of worldwide COVID-19 diagnoses are made in countries covered by voluntary licenses. Middle income countries not eligible for voluntary licensing may need to issue compulsory licenses to secure access to molnupiravir at affordable prices.

The role of the leading exporters in the global soybean trade

This paper examines the global soybean market in a holistic way, analyses the land use and other historical determinants of soybean exports, such as labour and capital endowments, soybean productivity, international prices and demand conditions through an empirical model. In addition, it pays particular attention to the role of leading exporters in the export changes and the nature of the connections between them in an interrelated system. The results suggest that the productivity per hectare and the land used to harvest soybeans are the main factors explaining soybean exports in a global context. The analysis also reveals that Brazil, the current market leader, positively influences the other exporters. On the contrary, minor exporters such as Ukraine, Paraguay, or Canada present competitive relationships with the major exporters. The nature of the relationships between the exporters and the pressure on natural resources highlight the importance of government involvement in developing joint strategies that ensure the growth of this sector and the achievement of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Price transmission and supply response: the case of Indian small cardamom

Market price volatility, the major challenge faced by the cardamom exporters greatly hinders the investment and destabilizes the earning of small holders. The present study attempted to analyse the price transmission between Indian and international markets and study the supply response of small cardamom to changes in price. The co-movement of prices of small cardamom exist between the Indian and international markets after trade liberalisation and the price transmission has been from the international market to the Indian market. The short-run disequilibrium has been found between the Indian and international prices of cardamom, which got corrected with varying speed of adjustment. The positive and significant elasticity of supply of small cardamom with respect to its own two year lagged price has been established. Crop specific price stabilization mechanism would help to overcome the wide fluctuations in prices of small cardamom.

Analysis Of the Effect Of Total Production, International Price, Exchange Rate, and Inflation On the Volume Of Indonesian Rubber Exports, 1980-2018

The purpose of this study is to partially and simultaneously analyze the influence of the variable production quantity, international prices, exchange rates, inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018. The research method uses quantitative methods. Sources of research data from publications of data collected by government officials or departments include the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), the Ministry of Agriculture's Data and Information Center (Pusdatin), Index Mundi. The research location was conducted in Indonesia. The data method used in this study is the non-behavioral observation method. Multiple linear regression is the type of data used in this study as an econometric tool to describe this research and also uses data analysis such as descriptive statistical tests, classical assumptions test, simultaneous test (F test), and partial test (t-test). The results of the analysis in this study indicate that the amount of production, international prices, exchange rates, and both simultaneously and simultaneously have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports during the years 1980-2018. Partially the amount of production has a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018, while international prices, exchange rates and inflation have no significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018.

Study of the Impact of the Growth of Private Consumption and Wages on Inflation in Bulgaria

In Bulgaria, as a country with a small open economy, external factors such as international prices of oil, food, raw materials and others have a serious impact on inflation; many other factors such as the growth of private consumption, wages and others have an impact as well. The purpose of the article is to examine the extent to which the growth of private consumption and wages contribute to inflation in our country. These two variables have the strongest impact on inflation in services, as many services in the economy cannot be imported from the outside world.

Mining optimism in Argentina will focus on lithium

Significance In March 2020, President Alberto Fernandez announced plans to promote the mining industry, but they were delayed by the pandemic. Argentina is part of the 'lithium triangle', with Bolivia and Chile, holding more than 85% of the world’s known reserves. The fall in international prices and the pandemic have delayed many projects. Impacts Once the pandemic recedes, Argentina’s mining potential will likely attract new investment, especially in lithium, gold and copper. Concerns about regulatory stability and environmental pressures will remain obstacles to investment. Mining investments will help to boost regional economies and export earnings, potentially strengthening international reserves.

Trade policy options for export diversification: The case of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Guinea

The landlocked and fragile countries’ ability to create a sustainable path to economic growth and poverty reduction is inextricably linked to their export diversification potential, itself related to their connectivity within themselves, in the region, and other external markets. Mali, Chad, and Niger are first challenged by their geography—their landlocked nature with their vast and thinly populated space serves to isolate the most vulnerable communities from external and internal markets. Adding to these geographic disadvantages non-landlocked is incentive environment—defined by high and variable customs common external tariff regimes resulting from multiple overlapping regional trade arrangements—places a wedge between domestic and international prices, provides a disincentive to exports in favor of non-tradable and domestic-oriented sectors. By bringing greater coherence and convergence between the many common external tariff regimes in operation and the rationalization of their structures, and improving connectivity within and between markets, Mali, Chad, Niger, and Guinea can better promote the reallocation of resources toward tradable goods and services, putting the countries on a path toward greater economic inclusion and sustainable growth.